Strategies for using the DraftKings betting splits on VSiN.com
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, are the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each week. Let’s face it, we all know the “betting public” does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DraftKings spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors that play there would be considered “public.” In other words, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display for all of us to analyze and use to our advantage.
With more states regulating sports betting each passing year, this information is more valuable than ever. In the “old days,” offshore sportsbooks would share this type of information, but bettors had no way of knowing the type or volume of clientele these groups were taking on. Let’s just say it made the betting percentage data offered by these places convoluted. With the DraftKings data, we know their customer strength is in numbers, and that is exactly what we are looking for with this type of analysis.
With that said, the fact that DraftKings shares this data with VSiN, and we proudly break it all down and display it, should be a godsend to bettors. While no analysis or system of betting is ever perfect, using this information in the ways I share below can be a good start or finish to your handicapping routine.
Before digging into some of the system data I was able to uncover during the 2022 college football season, I should start you off with two common betting generalities for recreational players that wager at places like DraftKings. That is, the majority bets favorites on the point spread and Overs on totals. The numbers are almost staggering.
According to the final ticket/handle numbers so far this season, wagers have been on favorites in more than 80% of games and on totals to go Over in about 75% of games. Naturally, with favorite/underdog and Over/Under results designed to be split, this leaves a lot of opportunity for books like DraftKings to win. To be clear, I’m not advising to just automatically bet all underdogs and Unders on totals, as that wouldn’t be fun nor profitable, but I’m telling you that in most cases, you would be going “against the public,” giving yourself at least a reasonable chance to profit long term.
About 2/3 of the way through the 2022 season, I ran a study collecting the Betting Splits data and analyzing it against actual results of FBS games. You will see that I basically tried to analyze the records of the “majority bettors” at DraftKings and the side/total they preferred for games. I also broke it down further, sometimes by the percentage of the majority. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) Handle 2) Number of Bets. These can produce varied results, but in general, I would subscribe to the theory that the total handle is a little less “public” than the total number of bets.
At the time, these were the overall records of the majority bettors for the 2022 college football season using the key terms “Handle” and “Number of Bets.”
- Majority Handle on point spreads: 171-191 ATS (47.3%)
- Majority Number of Bets on point spreads: 173-191 ATS (47.5%)
- Majority Handle on totals: 190-173 (52.3%)
- Majority Number of Bets on totals: 174-186 (48.3%)
As you can see, in three of the four categories, the majority are seeing noteworthy losses. On top of that, I also found that as the season wore on, the majority was getting worse and worse in backing the right plays. These were some key records in the second half of the season data I analyzed:
- Majority Handle on point spreads: 96-122 ATS (44%)
- Majority Number of Bets on point spreads: 96-123 ATS (43.8%)
- Majority Number of Bets on totals: 99-117 (45.8%)
As you can see, by simply fading the majority figures on the Betting Splits pages for college football for Handle and Number of Bets on point spreads, you would be slightly profitable or at least break even for the season and highly profitable over the latter season games. It’s a little more complicated for totals, as the majority handle actually has a winning record thus far. This information gave me a good starting point for developing 13 different systems I recommend putting to use to take advantage of the DraftKings Betting Splits Resource on VSiN.com. Try these yourself this season and build your bankroll.
13 Systems using DraftKings Betting Splits
DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the Handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 18-32 ATS (36%). In other words, if you saw the big green lights on the VSiN Betting Splits Handle page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.
DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the Number of Bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 38-59 ATS (39.2%). Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN Betting Splits Number of Bets page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.
It’s obvious you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the Handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 42-60 ATS (41.1%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the Handle was on home underdogs for an ATS wager, this majority group was 34-26 ATS (56.7%). Now, 56.7% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is an advantage of almost 10% against the usual majority win rates, and it goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, a higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
The Number of Bets results weren’t quite as definitive, but the majority did still struggle at backing road favorites (44.5%), and they did reasonably well (55.3%) when getting behind road dogs.
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the Handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 60-79 ATS (43.2%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of the Number of Bets backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 69-90 ATS (43.3%). Following more bet tickets on a better won-lost team was also not a winning strategy.
DK Betting Splits system #7: On games that had totals of 60 or higher, the majority Handle bettors were relatively sharp, going 58-44 (56.9%), choosing over 2/3 of the time to go Over. However, both sides of the totals won at similar rates.
DK Betting Splits system #8: On games with totals of 45 or lower, the majority Handle bettors siding with the Under were 10-3 (76.9%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this hadn’t produced a lot of plays, but the money handle majority had been sharp.
DK Betting Splits system #9: On games with totals of 45 or lower, the majority Number of Bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over had gone 10-18 (35.7%). Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of Number of Bets had been wrong most often.
DK Betting Splits system #10: On games where the Handle has a majority on totals and the Number of Bets has the opposite majority, the majority Handle plays had gone 57-41 (58.2%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority Handle.
These last few systems took into account how lines had moved throughout the week as a result of the betting action for either handle or number of bets:
DK Betting Splits system #11: When the majority of the Handle was on a home team but the opening line moved towards the road team, the majority side was 51-18 SU and 39-29-1 ATS (57.3%), assumingly a bit of a trap set by DraftKings to entice more action on the road team.
DK Betting Splits system #12: When the majority of the Handle was on a road team but the opening line moved towards the home team, the majority side was just 20-28 ATS (41.7%), the opposite success level of system #11. This seemed random to me, so tread lightly if you choose to utilize the angle this season.
DK Betting Splits system #13: When the majority Number of Bets had been on a total going Over but the opening total moved downward, this had shown to be another trap situation, with the majority just 74-95 (44%) at the time.
The Betting Splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular destination on VSiN.com.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, is now updated every five minutes instead of 10. We ping the DraftKings database and see what data has changed and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Another handy new feature is that you can sort the college football splits by Top 25 games and conference. (Use the down-down tab.)
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that, if the game is over, you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
