Tonight we have a tripleheader of MACtion on tap, with three games to choose from across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Ball State at Buffalo (-4, 54.5)

Ball State (3-6) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just came up short against Miami-Ohio 27-21 but managed to cover as 13-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Buffalo (5-4) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 41-30 win over Akron, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re laying the points with Buffalo at home. However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets we’ve seen Buffalo fall from -5.5. to -4. Some books are even down to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Ball State, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular play. Ball State is only receiving 32% of spread bets but 46% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet game on CBSSN. Ball State has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Shorts road dogs +4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. MACtion dogs are 100-75 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2021. Ball State is a buy-low dog off a loss against a sell-high opponent off a win, plus a “dog who can score” system match (25 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 51.5 to 54.5. The over is receiving 66% of bets and 82% of dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. When two MAC teams face off, the over is 20-8 (71%) with a 34% ROI this season. Weather shouldn’t be an issue here, as the forecast calls for low 40s with partly cloudy skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds.

7 p.m. ET: Central Michigan at Toledo (-14.5, 51.5)

Central Michigan (3-6) has lost four straight games and just fell to Bowling Green 23-13 but covered as 16-point home dogs. On the other hand, Toledo (6-3) just took down Eastern Michigan 29-28 but failed to cover as 10-point road favorites. This line opened with Toledo listed as a 14-point home favorite. Early on, we saw heavy steam drive Toledo up from -14 to -17. However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen some inflated buyback hit Central Michigan plus the points, dropping the line back down to Toledo -14.5. Toledo is receiving 59% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars, indicating slight public and sharp support. MACtion dogs getting 10-points or more are 9-4 ATS (69%) this season and 34-21 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI since 2021. Central Michigan has correlative betting value as a two-touchdown dog in a low total game (51.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the big favorite to cover. Central Michigan also has buy-low value as a dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite off a win. Wiseguys have also bet the over, driving the total up from 48.5 to 51.5. Once again, weather looks perfect as the forecast calls for mid 40s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

7 p.m. ET: Western Michigan at Bowling Green (-9.5, 57.5)

Western Michigan (5-4) just had their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Northern Illinois 42-28 and failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. Conversely, Bowling Green (5-4) has won three straight and just took down Central Michigan 23-13 but failed to cover as 16-point road favorites. This line opened with Bowling Green listed as a 7-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on Bowling Green, steaming the Falcons up from -7 to -9.5. The movement has been consistently in favor of Bowling Green from open to current without any notable buyback on Western Michigan. Bowling Green is receiving 57% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and evidence of slight public support but also respected sharp money. Bowling Green has a big edge defensively, allowing only 21 PPG compared to Western Michigan giving up 35 PPG. In terms of the total, we’ve seen it rise up from 56 to 57.5. It even reached as high as 59.5 before some under buyback brough it back down to 57.5. The over is only receiving 47% of bets but 57% of dollars, a rare sharp contrarian over bet split. Weather looks good here as well, with the forecast calling for low 40s with clear skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds.

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