VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 13

53
 

 

 

VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 13

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 13. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data

VSiN.com’s Betting Splits pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

Here are the DK Betting Splits College Football Systems and their updated performance records (as of Nov. 4):

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season through Nov. 4, when 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 72-84 ATS (46%). This angle has matched the same 46% record in ’23 as it did in ’22. If you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): OLE MISS, OHIO, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TEMPLE, UTAH STATE, TULANE, MISSOURI, BOISE STATE, KANSAS, OHIO STATE, RICE, ARIZONA, NORTH TEXAS, OLD DOMINION, WESTERN KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA, WISCONSIN, BYU, MARYLAND, TENNESSEE, LIBERTY, APPALACHIAN STATE, NOTRE DAME, SOUTH ALABAMA, GEORGIA, WYOMING

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager from start of ’22 season to Nov. 4, this majority group was just 138-158 ATS (46.6%). Last season it was 46.5%, this year it is 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, OLE MISS, IOWA, MEMPHIS, TULANE, MISSOURI, KANSAS, LSU, ARIZONA, NORTH TEXAS, SYRACUSE, OLD DOMINION, WESTERN KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA, ALABAMA, WEST VIRGINIA, BYU, MARYLAND, TENNESSEE, LIBERTY, APPALACHIAN STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, GEORGIA, WYOMING

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 134-160 ATS (45.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors have improved on this system in ’23, but there is still plenty of season to go.

System matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, OLE MISS, OHIO, UTAH STATE, MISSOURI, KANSAS, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NORTH CAROLINA, TROY, VIRGINIA TECH, ARIZONA, WESTERN KENTUCKY, ALABAMA, WEST VIRGINIA, WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, LIBERTY, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, SOUTH ALABAMA, GEORGIA, CLEMSON, WYOMING, COLORADO STATE

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: Similar to #3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 146-157 ATS (48.2%). Again, an improvement for bettors has been seen in 2023. Still, bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.

System matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, OLE MISS, OHIO, MIAMI FLA, MEMPHIS, MISSOURI, MIAMI OHIO, KANSAS, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NORTH CAROLINA, TROY, VIRGINIA TECH, UCONN, ARIZONA, WESTERN KENTUCKY, ALABAMA, WEST VIRGINIA, WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, LIBERTY, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, SOUTH ALABAMA, GEORGIA, CLEMSON, WYOMING, FRESNO STATE, COLORADO STATE

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE has been on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 130-119 ATS (52.2%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.

System matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN, IOWA, TCU, TEXAS TECH, OREGON STATE, HOUSTON, OHIO STATE, TULSA, SAN JOSE STATE, IOWA STATE, BYU

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS has backed ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone 118-102 ATS (53.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually, and though down a bit for ’23, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

System matches (PLAY ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN, IOWA, AIR FORCE, OHIO STATE, TULSA, COLORADO, NORTHWESTERN, IOWA STATE, ARKANSAS STATE, BYU

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS has backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 and 2023 season record has been 110-72 (60.4%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday. Keep this in mind as continuing weekday MACtion and the ever-popular Thanksgiving Friday games are still on tap.

System matches (PLAY ALL): BOWLING GREEN, EASTERN MICHIGAN, OLE MISS, OHIO, MIAMI FLA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, IOWA, OKLAHOMA, MEMPHIS, TULANE, MISSOURI, AIR FORCE, PENN STATE, TEXAS, OREGON

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the HANDLE backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone just 235-282 ATS (43.7%), generally maintaining consistency from ’22 to ‘23. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.

System matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, EASTERN MICHIGAN, OLE MISS, OHIO, TOLEDO, IOWA, TULANE, UTAH STATE, MISSOURI, PENN STATE, LOUISVILLE, LSU, UMASS, DUKE, SMU, TROY, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, MIAMI OHIO, RICE, SYRACUSE, TULSA, UTAH, WESTERN KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA, ALABAMA, ARIZONA, TENNESSEE, WISCONSIN, LIBERTY, VIRGINIA TECH, APPALACHIAN STATE, WASHINGTON, NEW MEXICO STATE, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, WEST VIRGINIA, GEORGIA, KANSAS, CLEMSON, SOUTH FLORIDA, WYOMING, UCLA, COLORADO STATE

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they have been relatively sharp, going 49-34 (59%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 83 of 1321 games.

System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTAH STATE-NEW MEXICO, OREGON STATE-OREGON, HOUSTON-UCF, KANSAS-CINCINNATI, UAB-NORTH TEXAS, LIBERTY-UTEP, GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE, WASHINGTON STATE-WASHINGTON, SOUTH ALABAMA-TEXAS STATE, GEORGIA-GEORGIA TECH, CHARLOTTE-USF

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER have gone 24-10 (70.6%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDERs, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority are sharp.

System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO, NORTHERN ILLINOIS-KENT STATE, WISCONSIN-MINNESOTA, MARYLAND-RUTGERS

 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 43-25 (63.2%). This system has actually gone up in win percentage this season. Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of number of BETS has been pretty good when going against the grain.

System matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIAMI OHIO-BALL STATE, WYOMING-NEVADA

 

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

Best

* WISCONSIN is 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY WISCONSIN (-2.5 at Minnesota)

 

* COASTAL CAROLINA is 11-8 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA (+9 vs. JMU)

 

* LSU is 14-6 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY LSU (-10.5 vs. Texas A&M)

 

* LOUISIANA is 10-10 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY LOUISIANA (-12.5 vs. ULM)

 

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 16-10 SU and 15-10 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+11.5 vs. Toledo)

 

* CALIFORNIA is 17-20 SU and 22-15 ATS (59.5%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+8 at UCLA)

 

* NAVY is 12-22 SU and 22-12 ATS (64.7%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY NAVY (+20.5 at SMU)

 

Worst

* OLE MISS is 11-21 SU and 11-20 ATS (35.5%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: FADE OLE MISS (-10.5 at Mississippi State)

 

* NEW MEXICO is 7-34 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+7.5 vs. Utah State)

 

* MASSACHUSETTS is 3-20 SU and 10-13 ATS (43.5%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: FADE MASSACHUSETTS (+2.5 vs. UConn)

 

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS (40%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: FADE APPALACHIAN STATE (-8.5 vs. GA Southern)

 

College football revenge systems

Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge

Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 44-26 ATS (62.9%).

System match: PLAY MICHIGAN STATE (+21 vs. Penn State)

 

Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived

Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 46-34 ATS (57.5%) since 2016.

System matches: PLAY OLE MISS (-11 at Mississippi State), PLAY NOTRE DAME (-26 at Stanford)

 

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out

Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 98-116 ATS (45.8%) since 2016.

System matches: FADE IOWA (+1.5 at Nebraska), FADE CLEMSON (-7.5 at South Carolina), FADE NOTRE DAME (-26 at Stanford), FADE LSU (-12 vs. Texas A&M)

 

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances

College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 88-14 SU and 68-30-4 ATS (69.4%) since 2016.

System matches: PLAY OLE MISS (-11 at Mississippi State), PLAY OKLAHOMA (-10 vs. TCU), PLAY IOWA (+1.5 at Nebraska), PLAY TEXAS (-13 vs. Texas Tech), PLAY LOUISVILLE (-7 vs. Kentucky), PLAY NOTRE DAME (-26 at Stanford)

 

Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter

Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 597-535 ATS (52.7%) as compared to those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).

System matches (GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAMS ALLOWING <= 24 PPG): OLE MISS, IOWA, OKLAHOMA, AIR FORCE, TEXAS, OREGON, WISCONSIN, SYRACUSE, OHIO STATE, LOUISVILLE, DUKE, CLEMSON, RUTGERS, COASTAL CAROLINA, NOTRE DAME, NAVY, AUBURN, NORTHWESTERN, IOWA STATE

 

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes

Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 203-160 ATS (55.9%) since 2016.

System matches: PLAY NOTRE DAME (-26 at Stanford), PLAY NORTH TEXAS (-3 vs. UAB)

 

College Football Systems based on AP poll rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 — Games featuring two ranked teams

In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are 168-82 SU and 143-99-8 ATS (59.1%).

System matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON, MICHIGAN

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 101-17 SU and 74-40-4 ATS (64.9%).

System match: PLAY OREGON

 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #2 — Road ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts

In games Week 12 or later in the season, RANKED ROAD TEAMS are now 102-27 SU and 73-54-2 ATS (57.5%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.

System match (PLAY ALL): OLE MISS, TOLEDO, IOWA, MISSOURI, PENN STATE, ARIZONA, ALABAMA, LIBERTY, JAMES MADISON, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA

Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these RANKED ROAD TEAMS are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 87-10 SU and 58-37-2 ATS (61.1%%) in that same Week 12 and later period.

System matches (PLAY ALL): OLE MISS, TOLEDO, MISSOURI, PENN STATE, ARIZONA, ALABAMA, LIBERTY, JAMES MADISON, FLORIDA STATE (*only if become -6.5 or better vs. UF*), NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA

 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #3 — Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors

In games week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of RANKED HOME TEAMS against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12-points or more, they have gone 93-12 SU but just 42-57-2 ATS (42.4%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 31-4 SU and 23-12 ATS (65.7%) since ’17.

System matches (FADE ALL ATS): TEXAS, OKLAHOMA STATE, TENNESSEE, WASHINGTON

System match (PLAY ALL): TULANE, LOUISVILLE, LSU, KANSAS STATE, OKLAHOMA

 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4

In college football games featuring TWO RANKED TEAMS with the home team being a double-digit favorite, UNDER the total boasts an impressive 35-15 (70%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the UNDER record jumps to 21-7 (75%).

System match: PLAY UNDER in OREGON STATE-OREGON (o/u at 62)

 

Extreme stat next-game CFB betting systems

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball

Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5-points or more have gone just 38-64 SU and 34-64-4 ATS (34.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.

System matches: FADE AUBURN (+14.5 vs. Alabama), FADE FRESNO STATE (-4.5 at SDSU)

 

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams

Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 127-172 ATS (42.5%) over the last decade-plus.

System matches: FADE AUBURN (+14.5 vs. Alabama), FADE NEW MEXICO STATE (-2 vs. Jax State), FADE ARKANSAS STATE (+2.5 at Marshall), FADE TEXAS STATE (+5 vs. S Alabama)

 

Dismal offensive performances carry over

College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 23-33-1 ATS (41.1%) in their last 57 tries.

System match: FADE KENT STATE (+19 vs. Northern Illinois)

 

Systems for college football regular-season finale games

These are betting systems involving teams playing in their regular season finale games

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #1

Since 2015, HOME FAVORITES of more than 20 points are 53-6 SU but just 23-36 ATS (39%) in season finale games.

System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) — TENNESSEE (-27 vs. Vanderbilt), UTAH (-22 vs. Colorado).

Steve’s thoughts: Laying big numbers in regular-season finales can be difficult, regardless of the perceived difference in strength levels between the teams, as many of the regular-season finale games are rivalry contests with enhanced motivation for the underdogs. The favored teams are typically just concentrating on getting wins, as you can see by the outright record.

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #2

Since 2015, HOME UNDERDOGS of seven points or more are just 21-106 SU and 52-74-1 ATS (41.3%) in season finales.

System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) — MISSISSIPPI STATE (+11 vs. Ole Miss), BOSTON COLLEGE (+9 vs. Miami), Akron (+14 vs. Ohio U), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+10.5 vs. Toledo), NEW MEXICO (+7.5 vs. Utah State), ARKANSAS (+7.5 vs. Missouri), MICHIGAN STATE (+21 vs. Penn State), TEMPLE (+11.5 vs. Memphis), GEORGIA TECH (+24 vs. Georgia), SOUTH CAROLINA (+7 vs. Clemson), KENT STATE (+18.5 vs. Northern Illinois), ARIZONA STATE (+11.5 vs. Arizona), STANFORD (+26 vs. Notre Dame), FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+10 vs. Western Kentucky), AUBURN (+15 vs. Alabama), BAYLOR (+9 vs. West Virginia), SOUTHERN MISS (+17 vs. Troy), UTEP (+17 vs. Liberty), NEVADA (+11 vs. Wyoming)

Steve’s thoughts: In most cases, home teams that are playing as heavy underdogs in the regular-season finale are overmatched by the opponent and just trying to put a positive ending on a miserable season. That isn’t a huge motivating factor. There is a reason they are a big underdog and typically they don’t wind up showing much fight in these finales.

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #3

In season finale games since 2015, TEAMS SCORING more than 43 PPG are 34-8 SU and 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%) versus teams scoring less.

System matches: OREGON (-13.5 vs. Oregon State), LSU (-10.5 vs. Texas A&M)

Steve’s thoughts: Although this system lost last week with USC against UCLA, I stand by it as the Trojans were in a different situation from most teams that fit the criteria. In most cases, these explosive teams are looking to make one more huge impression on fans and pollsters as they build momentum for a conference title or bowl game appearance. USC was reeling from a late-season collapse and had seen its offensive numbers dwindle down the stretch.

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #4

In season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams when the BETTER TEAM has been the ROAD TEAM in the matchup, the record has been 63-10 SU and 45-28 ATS (61.6%).

System matches: OLE MISS (-11 at Mississippi State), OHIO U (-14 at Akron), TOLEDO (-10.5 at C Michigan), IOWA (+1 at Nebraska), MISSOURI (-7.5 at Arkansas), PENN STATE (-21 at Michigan State), MEMPHIS (-11.5 at Temple), GEORGIA (-24 at Georgia Tech), KANSAS (-6 at Cincinnati), FLORIDA STATE (-6.5 at Florida), MIAMI OHIO (-6.5 at Ball State), NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-18.5 at Kent State), ARIZONA (-11.5 at Arizona State), NOTRE DAME (-26 at Stanford), FRESNO STATE (-5.5 at San Diego State), ALABAMA (-15 at Auburn), WEST VIRGINIA (-9 at Baylor), TROY (-17 at Southern Miss), LIBERTY (-17 at UTEP), WYOMING (-11 at Nevada)

Steve’s thoughts: This is somewhat similar to #2 above. I think too much is made of late-season road games for a lot of quality teams, as I believe the difficulty of the task should only be measured by the quality of the opponent. When there is a four-game or better difference in wins between two teams at this point, there is an obvious strength difference, as well as a probable motivational edge for the better team. You also get the added benefit of line value applied by oddsmakers for home-field advantage when it may or may not even apply in reality.

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #5

One of the most intriguing regular-season finale angles involves teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finale, they have gone 25-40 SU but 39-24-1 ATS (61.9%).

System matches: MISSISSIPPI STATE (+11 vs. Ole Miss), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+10.5 vs. Toledo), NEBRASKA (-1 vs. Iowa), TCU (+11 at Oklahoma), MINNESOTA (+2 vs. Wisconsin), FLORIDA (+6.5 vs. Florida State), SOUTH CAROLINA (+7 vs. Clemson), MARSHALL (-2.5 vs. Arkansas State), CALIFORNIA (+9.5 at UCLA), WASHINGTON STATE (+16.5 at Washington), BYU (+17 at Oklahoma State), ILLINOIS (-6 vs. Northwestern)

Steve’s thoughts: Obviously there is a lot of motivation that comes along with trying to clinch bowl eligibility, both in terms of money and in being able to extend the season another month. Unfortunately, when teams put themselves in the difficult spot of having to accomplish that goal by beating a better team in the finale, the most often result is “close but no cigar.”

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #6

College football season finale underdogs of four points or more that have a better record than their opponent have gone just 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in their last 19 tries.

System matches: FADE ALL ATS) — EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6.5 at Buffalo), AIR FORCE (+6.5 at Boise State), NORTHWESTERN (+6 at Illinois)

Steve’s thoughts: Put these games in the column of “someone knows something.” Despite having a better record than the opponent, these teams are still sizable underdogs. Don’t be fooled by a line that seems too good to be true,

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #7

Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 13-17 SU and 7-24 ATS (22.6%) in their season finales.

System matches: (FADE ALL ATS) — OHIO U (-14 at Akron), IOWA (+1 at Nebraska), WISCONSIN (-2 at Minnesota), RUTGERS (+1 vs. Maryland), NORTHWESTERN (+6 at Illinois)

Steve’s thoughts: This system makes a lot of sense as these may have winning records, but these teams aren’t complete, as they don’t score a lot. Often, they are laying points in the season finales because they are a winning team. I typically don’t like to trust teams laying points that aren’t capable offensively.

 

CFB Regular-Season Finale System #8

College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that, as of the last 18 season finale games with totals less than 40, UNDER the total has gone 13-4-1 (76.5%).

System matches: EASTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO UNDER 35.5, IOWA-NEBRASKA UNDER 26.5, MIAMI OHIO-BALL STATE UNDER 36.5,

Steve’s thoughts: Expecting dead offenses to wake up in late-season games that could even be affected by negative weather circumstances has proven to be foolish. Oddsmakers are setting the pins for bettors, they just have to knock ’em down by playing the obvious.

 

This week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. NC STATE +3 (+4.1), 2. UMASS +2.5 (+4.0), 3. SAN JOSE STATE +3 (+3.0), 4 (tie). VANDERBILT +27 (+2.8) and IOWA +2.5 (+2.8), 6 (tie). SAM HOUSTON STATE +3.5 (+2.3) and ARKANSAS STATE +2.5 (+2.3), 8. TEXAS A&M +11.5 (+2.2), 9. BAYLOR +9.5 (+1.9), 10. BALL STATE +6.5 (+1.8)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. NOTRE DAME -26 (+4.5), 2. ARIZONA -10.5 (+3.8), 3. APPALACHIAN STATE -8.5 (+3.6), 4 (tie). UCLA -9 (+3.4) and PENN STATE -20.5 (+3.4) and LOUISIANA -13 (+3.4), 7. TEXAS -13 (+3.3), 8. SYRACUSE -3 (+3.1), 9. EAST CAROLINA -3 (+2.9), 10. WASHINGTON -16.5 (+2.8)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1 (tie). MICHIGAN STATE +20.5 (+6.0) and SOUTH CAROLINA +7.5 (+6.0), 3. BAYLOR +9.5 (+5.3), 4. UMASS +2.5 (+4.4), 5. FLORIDA +6.5 (+3.8), 6. NAVY +20 (+3.4), 7. COASTAL CAROLINA +9 (+3.2), 8. AUBURN +14.5 (+2.9), 9. BALL STATE +6.5 (+2.7), 10. NORTHWESTERN +5.5 (+2.3)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. NOTRE DAME -26 (+4.8), 2. LIBERTY -17 (+3.8), 3. OHIO -14 (+3.5), 4. NEW MEXICO STATE -1 (+3.4), 5. TOLEDO -10.5 (+3.2), 6. OLE MISS -10 (+3.1), 7. WESTERN KENTUCKY -10 (+2.9), 8. NORTHERN ILLINOIS -19 (+2.8), 9. OREGON -13.5 (+2.7), 10. MISSOURI -7 (+2.1)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. EASTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO OVER 36.5 (+9.5), 2. MIAMI OHIO-BALL STATE OVER 35.5 (+6.7), 3. IOWA-NEBRASKA OVER 26.5 (+5.4), 4. IOWA STATE-KANSAS STATE OVER 47.5 (+3.2), 5. PENN STATE-MICHIGAN STATE OVER 43 (+2.5), 6. OHIO STATE-MICHIGAN OVER 46 (+2.4), 7. MIAMI FLA-BOSTON COLLEGE OVER 48.5 (+2.3), 8. TULSA-EAST CAROLINA OVER 44.5 (+2.2), 9. WYOMING-NEVADA OVER 41.5 (+2.1), 10. ALABAMA-AUBURN OVER 48.5 (+2.0)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. UAB-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 74 (-6.0), 2 (tie). TCU-OKLAHOMA UNDER 63.5 (-5.8) and WASHINGTON STATE-WASH UNDER 68.5 (-5.8), 4. LIBERTY-UTEP UNDER 58.5 (-5.1), 5. TEXAS TECH-TEXAS UNDER 53.5 (-3.9), 6. HOUSTON-UCF UNDER 61.5 (-3.4), 7. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE UNDER 63 (-3.3), 8. MEMPHIS-TEMPLE UNDER 65 (-2.3), 9. OREGON STATE-OREGON UNDER 62 (-2.2), 10. VANDERBILT-TENNESSEE UNDER 56.5 (-1.9)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. AIR FORCE +6.5 (+11.0), 2. BAYLOR +9.5 (+6.8), 3. GEORGIA SOUTHERN +8.5 (+6.5), 4 (tie). GEORGIA STATE +3 (+6.0) and KENT STATE +19 (+6.0), 6 (tie). WAKE FOREST +3 (+5.2) and UMASS +2.5 (+5.2), 8. HOUSTON +13.5 (+4.4), 9. WESTERN MICHIGAN +2.5 (+4.2), 10. COLORADO +21.5 (+4.0)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. FRESNO STATE -5.5 (+8.5), 2. MARSHALL -2.5 (+6.5), 3. SMU -20 (+6.2), 4. TEXAS -13 (+5.5), 5. OHIO -14 (+5.4), 6. UTAH STATE -8 (+5.2), 7(tie). TULANE -3.5 (+4.1) and VIRGINIA TECH -2.5 (+4.1), 9. OKLAHOMA -10 (+3.6), 10. BUFFALO -5 (+3.4)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. EASTERN MICHIGAN-BUFFALO OVER 36.5 (+6.6), 2 (tie). BOWLING GREEN-WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER 51.5 (+3.5) and TCU-OKLAHOMA OVER 63.5 (+3.5) and WEST VIRGINIA-BAYLOR OVER 55 (+3.5), 5. UCONN-UMASS OVER 51.5 (+3.1), 6. VIRGINIA TECH-VIRGINIA OVER 51 (+2.9), 7. FLORIDA STATE-FLORIDA OVER 50 (+2.5), 8. JACKSONVILLE STATE-NEW MEXICO STATE OVER 50 (+2.4), 9. MARYLAND-RUTGERS OVER 44 (+2.2), 10. NORTH CAROLINA-NC STATE OVER 55 (+2.0)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. BYU-OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 56.5