The college football regular season is winding down, which is going to make handicapping even more difficult. There will be some games where both teams will be sufficiently motivated and it will be a pretty straightforward handicap, but there are also going to be some games where effort is going to be in question. Teams that can’t make a bowl game, have a lame-duck head coach or have a newer head coach looking ahead to next season with his own recruits are all hard to gauge at this point.
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Not only will the results vary, but how those teams are viewed by the betting market will vary as well. You may be able to find some good line value if you can isolate the teams that are going to keep showing up and putting in the work, but you may also get burned by speculating. I’ll wind up with some of each. Most bettors will. We just hope that we’re on the right side more often than not.
My power ratings don’t necessarily account for the teams I think fall into the “quitting” category. That’s part of the handicapping process and you have to take each team on a case-by-case basis and evaluate the situation at hand. Live betting may be more beneficial at this time of the year so that you can actually see the teams between the lines rather than invest money into your speculations.
Here are my power ratings for Week 12:
