Week 6 College Football: Texas State vs. Troy

The Lone Star State will be well-represented on Thursday night to kick off Week 6, as three of the four teams in action hail from Texas. Texas State, Sam Houston State, and UTEP all take the field, along with Troy, as we get a double dose of small-conference football to get things underway. Both road teams are double-digit favorites and two of them actually played each other last week in a game that could have a significant impact on how they perform this week.

Let’s talk about that and more, as we start with my favorite play of the two games and go from there.

 

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Texas State Bobcats (-13, 57.5) at Troy Trojans

7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Sun Belt action takes us to Alabama, as Troy hosts Texas State. This will be the first true road game of the season for the Bobcats, who lost at NRG Stadium to Sam Houston State last Saturday. It is a quick turnaround for both of those teams, but Texas State has to be eager to get back on the field after blowing last week’s game against the Bearkats.

Texas State had over 6.2 yards per play in the 40-39 loss and had a 22-0 lead after the first quarter. Despite not scoring for almost 27 minutes, the Bobcats were six seconds away from a win, but Sam Houston State kicked a 24-yard chippy for the win. So, it was a massive collapse from the Bobcats, who even got a 60-yard field goal from Mason Shipley right before the halftime horn.

The Bobcat defense has problems but the offense seems just fine under James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud. Troy has allowed 6.35 yards per play in four FBS games, so I expect the Bobcats to move the rock in this one.

I do not expect Troy to move the ball much. They had 8.7 YPP in the win over Florida A&M, but have just barely over five yards per play against FBS foes. This team lost so much from last season and now gets a very angry, very unhappy Texas State team in a spotlight game for head coach GJ Kinne, who will level up and have a better job next season.

I think Texas State starts fast and learned a lesson about letting up last week.

Pick: Texas State -13

Other Thursday Game

Sam Houston State Bearkats (-10.5, 50) at UTEP Miners: The 9 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS Sports Network features the aforementioned Bearkats against a well-rested UTEP team. There is a clear letdown angle to consider with Sam Houston State, but UTEP is awful and that may mitigate any hangover from the biggest FBS win for SHSU aside from their first one last year against Louisiana Tech.

Remember, SHSU started 0-8 and lost 37-34 to UTEP at home last season before getting a win over then-FCS Kennesaw State. UTEP kicked a game-winning field goal with three seconds left, so there’s a revenge factor in play here.

I think the biggest thing is just how much better the Bearkats are all around, while it seems like very little has changed for the Miners in Scotty Walden’s first season at the helm. UTEP ranks 113th in yards per play and is one of 21 teams with fewer than five yards per play. They have actually mustered just 4.5 YPP against FBS opponents. They had 6.4 YPP in the loss to Southern Utah.

The spot is undoubtedly bad with the quick turnaround and the emotional win over Texas State, but the Bearkats are simply the better team by a good margin. I do have this -12 in my Week 6 College Football Power Ratings, so I’m not getting any great line equity. I do also hate the quick turn to play in elevation, a factor that now I can’t overlook for the second half of this game. Maybe a first-half Bearkats play at -6 or -6.5 would be a better route and that’s my lean.

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