While Week 9 only brings us two games with top-25 opponents going head-to-head, a lot of ranked teams do have to go on the road. It could be a rather interesting weekend in a number of ways, especially with the first College Football Playoff rankings coming out on November 2. Given all the two-loss teams that we already have, and the fact that the SEC is pretty clearly the best conference in college football again, our first look at those is sure to lead to a lot of discussion.
Before we get there, though, we have this round of games. We saw some pretty telling line moves on Sunday as numbers opened and towards Sunday night as the market settled in. There are also some fascinating lines and some historical outliers worth noting.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
Week 9 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, October 25 at 5:00 p.m. ET
Sam Houston at Missouri State (-6, 50)
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Our run of 61 straight days with a football game continues thanks to Conference USA, as we have two games from that league on Tuesday night. The one that got more attention on Sunday was the nightcap, as Under money hit the board pretty hard for Sam Houston and Missouri State. Circa opened 51 on this total and had moved down to 50, while other shops were already at 49.5. The spread was holding pretty tight at 6 or 6.5, a pretty big number for a Missouri State team that has one FBS win by three points this season.
Jacksonville State (-3, 49.5) at New Mexico State
Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The level of play in this conference isn’t great by any means, but this is a big game in C-USA, as Jacksonville State enters with a 3-0 conference record and New Mexico State is 2-1. I’m not sure how this happened, but Jacksonville State does not play Liberty during the regular season. Those are the only undefeated teams right now in league play. So, we may not get a rematch in the C-USA title game. This is a huge game for the Gamecocks, though, as they’ve won the last two games by four combined points and have to take the long trek to Las Cruces. I wonder if we see some Aggies money hit the board as the week goes along.
Florida Atlantic at North Texas (-13, 73)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
ESPN has this American Conference tilt, which has a total in the 70s. We only have two other games that have had a total in the 70s and both of them were FBS vs. FCS games in Week 3. Oklahoma State and Murray State had a 70.5 and Portland State and Oregon had a 71.5. So, we’re tracking towards this being the highest total of the season. Totals in the 70s had a run of being pretty frequent for a while, especially in the Big 12. That’s not the case anymore, though, so let’s enjoy this one while we can.
Baylor at UCF (-2.5, 48)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Situational spot bettors are salivating about this game. UCF just beat No. 2 BYU in overtime for arguably the biggest win in program history. Baylor just fired head coach Dave Aranda, so we’ll see if they get that fired-coach bump. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is the interim for the Bears. It is tough for UCF to know what to expect here and how things could change with some new voices, so this is quite an intriguing Friday night affair. We didn’t really see much in the way of line movement on Sunday, but with those spots and factors that I mentioned, somebody will have a noteworthy position at some point.
Kent State (-11.5, 46.5) at Sacramento State
Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
If you know anything about me, you knew this game was coming. The Hornets are probably the lowest power-rated FBS team of all-time. That’s about the only explanation for Kent State being a double-digit road favorite. The Golden Flashes are a road favorite for the first time since Week 11 of the 2022 season. They are a double-digit road favorite for the first time since Week 12 of the 2021 season when they shut out Akron 38-0. And think about the circumstances here. Right after playing rival Akron to win the Wagon Wheel, the Flashes have to fly all the way across the country. And they’re still laying doubles. AND the line even grew from -11 to -11.5 at some places.
Cal at NC State (-7.5, 57)
Saturday, Noon ET (ACC Network)
A weird game to line here. NC State fired Dave Doeren on Sunday. Doeren has been the head coach of the Wolfpack since 2013. So, who knows how NC State will come out for this one, as a change was probably necessary, but he’s been there for a very long time. There are actually whispers that Philip Rivers is on the shortlist for head coach, as his son, Gunner, is committed in the 2027 class. The Wolfpack have tabbed running backs coach Todd Goebbel as the interim. So, while there’s some tumult in the NC State locker room, Cal has to come three time zones east for an early kick in Raleigh. The Golden Bears did win at Syracuse earlier this season, but just lost by 39 to SMU in Dallas.
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3.5, 36.5)
Saturday, Noon ET (FOX)
If you need a nap on Saturday, tune into Big Noon Kickoff, where past-his-prime Gus Johnson will be on the call for Wisconsin vs. Iowa. As I mentioned above with FAU and UNT, we have our highest total of the season this week. In this game, we have our lowest total of the season. Previously, 39.5 was the lowest that we had gone. It should be noted that we’ve had three games at 39.5 this season. All three went Under the total. We’ll see if this one follows suit.
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State (-6, 60)
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
We got some mixed signals on this line on Sunday night. Georgia State QB Cameran Brown left this past week’s game hurt. So, I wasn’t surprised to see Circa move from 7 to 6 with some early, speculative Chanticleers money. On the other hand, this total has risen from 58 to 60. To recap, we saw a pretty typical move on the spread when a QB’s status is in doubt, but we saw an atypical move on the total, as backup QB Ayden Pereira was 12-of-19 for 163 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. Finding injury info in the G6 conferences can be tough. Perhaps this line will tell us what we need to know.
Kansas State (-2.5, 48) at Colorado
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET (TNT)
Speaking of QB uncertainty, the Wildcats looked awful without Avery Johnson last week. That hasn’t stopped early bettors from backing Kansas State here. Colorado has looked pretty bad all season long and maybe there are some questions as to whether or not Deion Sanders still has the locker room. Circa opened this game 1 and 47.5 and we saw a really modest move on the total, with some shops up to 48.5, but the movement on the Kansas State side, including BetMGM out to 3 by Sunday evening, certainly caught me off-guard.
Florida vs. Georgia (-10.5, 56)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
For the first time since 1995, this game is not in Jacksonville. It is still a neutral-site game in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have won five in a row in this rivalry, but are just 2-3 ATS in that span. They’ve been favored by 6.5, 13.5, 14, 23, and 14 and are double-digit favorites here as well. In fact, Florida’s last win in the “Cocktail Party” that wasn’t during the weird 2020 COVID season was back in 2016. It’s a big game for Jon Sumrall’s crew. Let’s see which way the number goes.
Minnesota at Indiana (-19, 42.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Are bettors enamored with PJ Fleck and the Golden Gophers or is this just a numbers play? Minnesota upset Iowa in a rock fight of a game last week and the Gophers have been the preferred side early. It doesn’t take a ton of interest to move a number this big, as Minnesota went from Circa’s +20 opener down to +19. Is that just a play based on the fact that the total in this game is just 42.5? Does it have to do with how bad a clearly-injured Josh Hoover played against Michigan? Whatever the case, I’ll be honest, I don’t think this number is done going down.
South Carolina at Oklahoma (-5.5, 44.5)
Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Last week’s head-scratcher line was the Gamecocks -2.5 against Tennessee. South Carolina won on a walk-off field goal to cover that number. This week, we don’t see that same level of confidence in the Cocks, as Oklahoma opened -4 at Circa and got bumped up to 5.5. As I’ve said many times before, moving between 4 and 6 in college football where extra points are a 99% proposition doesn’t take much. It used to take very little in the NFL until the PAT was moved back and had a higher degree of difficulty. Will we touch 6 here? I don’t think so, but the Sooners still have a legit defense, even if the offense leaves a lot to be desired.
Clemson at Florida State (-6, 49.5)
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ACC Network)
Man, how the mighty have fallen. This game can’t even get on ESPN. That’s wild. What’s also wild is this number. For starters, Florida State is favored, which hasn’t happened since 2023. The bigger note is that this is the biggest favorite role for Florida State against Clemson since Week 4 of the 2014 season. The Seminoles were -11.5 in that game in Tallahassee and only won by six. Last season, Clemson was only +1.5. The Tigers were +16.5 two seasons ago. The dynamics have really changed for these two teams.
Ohio State (-7, 51) at USC
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
This is such a hard game to bet. We know that Lincoln Riley can’t really win going east, but the Buckeyes are heading west for this one. And they’ll do so without QB Julian Sayin, who seems to be out for the season if you read the tea leaves. The Buckeyes are coming in off of an incredibly well-timed bye, so they’ve at least had a chance to get Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair some reps with the 1s. Thus far, we haven’t seen any strong positions taken one way or the other on this number, which hardly surprises me. This line will need a little bit of time to marinate.
Northern Illinois at UNLV (-24.5, 54)
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
Sacramento State is the worst team in the country and I’d still have Northern Illinois a two-touchdown favorite in that game. So, when I say that this is a big number, it’s a very big number. The Rebels haven’t been favored like this against a FBS opponent since Week 2 of the 2018 season when they were -24 against UTEP. If this holds 24.5 or higher, it will be their biggest favorite role ever against a FBS team.
