CJ Cup Byron Nelson Best Bets and Golf Odds

CJ Cup Byron Nelson 

The team of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry removed the sting from their loss in the 2021 Ryder Cup as a duo and won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans on Sunday in a playoff over Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer. 

The Irish victors clearly enjoyed the spoils Sunday night in New Orleans. 

This week, the PGA Tour is back to the Lone Star State in Dallas with the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. 

Ordinarily, Dallas resident and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler would be playing a home game, but he and wife Meredith are expecting their first child any day now, so the rest of the field gets a break from the game’s current most dominant player. 

Another Dallas resident Jordan Spieth (14-1), who was runner-up here two years ago, has been playing through a wrist injury but is the tournament favorite. 

Jason Day (18-1) returns to defend his Byron Nelson title from last year as does Si Woo Kim (22-1), who finished runner-up to Day in 2023.

Like Spieth is one of many Dallas-area residents competing, including Tom Kim (30-1), Tom Hoge (33-1) and two-time (2021 and 2022) Byron Nelson champion KH Lee (50-1). Another Dallas guy, Will Zalatoris, was a Tuesday afternoon withdrawal.

Players following in the market include Adam Scott (25-1), Alex Noren (25-1), Sungjae Im (25-1), Min Woo Lee (28-1), Byeong Hun An (30-1) and Stephan Jaeger (33-1).

With this event placed before a “Signature Event” at the Wells Fargo Championship and then the year’s second major at the PGA Championship, the field quality is down with just 10 of the top 50 players in the OWGR in Dallas this week. 

The Event

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is named after its first winner. Nelson won this tournament in 1944 when it was known as the Texas Victory Open. He lent his name to his event in 1968 and served as host until his death in 2016. The tournament is the all-time fundraising leader on the PGA Tour. The Salesmanship Club of Dallas is the event’s host organization, and it raises money for Momentous Institute, a youth social services organization based in Dallas. The event has always been played in the Dallas area throughout its run. 

South Korean CJ Group takes over the sponsorship this year. It sponsored the CJ Cup event from 2017 to 2022. 

Many legends of the game have won this event including Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, and 1980), Sam Snead (1945, 1957, and 1958), Jack Nicklaus (1970, 1971), Byron Nelson (1944), Ben Hogan (1946), Phil Mickelson (1996), Tiger Woods (1997) and Sergio Garcia (2004, 2016).

This tournament was moved to TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney (32 miles northeast of downtown Dallas), in 2021.

With 500 FedEx Cup points, a $9.5 million purse and the ability to play one’s way into next week’s “Signature” Wells Fargo event along with the PGA Championship on the line, there is plenty at stake this week.

The Field

156 players make up this week’s field at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. 

Field Notes

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout W/D on Sunday.
• Marty Dou, Austin Smotherman and James Hahn IN on sponsor exemptions.
• Charley Hoffman and Patrick Rodgers W/D on Monday; Richy Werenski and Sean O’Hair IN from the alternate list. 
• KK Limbhasut, Max McGreevy, Quade Cummins, Brad Hopfinger are the four Monday Open Qualifiers.
• Will Zalatoris W/D on Tuesday; Nick Watney IN from the alternate list. 

The Course

TPC Craig Ranch plays host for the fourth year. The layout was designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004. Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Phoenix Open) and the Torrey Pines North Course (Farmers Insurance Open). The course is set in a rolling valley and features tree-lined fairways with Rowlett Creek, which will crisscross the course 14 times with eight water danger holes). The track will play as a par-71 of 7,414 yards. For the past two AT&T Byron Nelson events, Craig Ranch has played as a par-72, but it is now a par-71 as the 12th hole is now a long par-4 instead of a par-5.

The front nine at Craig Ranch looks to be the most scoreable nine. The first, third and sixth holes are all par-4s at 430 yards or less. Add in 569-yard (fifth) and 564-yard (eighth) par-5s and there are birdies to be made on these Bentgrass greens that are large (6,778 square feet average) and average speed (11.5 stimpmeter). The back nine, which is located in a residential setting, sees a drivable par-4 (330 yards) at the 14th, a short 147-yard par-3 at the 17th and a par-5 at the finishing 18th hole of 552 yards.

There are 83 bunkers and the wind can blow here, but the Zoysia fairways are wide and generous, the eighth widest on the PGA Tour. Zoysiagrass is a bit bouncier and more similar to Paspalum. TPC Southwind and East Lake are the other courses on the PGA Tour with Zoysia fairways. 

The Bermuda rough was grown out to 2.75 inches to make the course more difficult but was not successful in doing so. Craig Ranch still had an average round score of -2.43 in 2023, which was the fourth-easiest course on the PGA Tour last year. 

Some potential correlated courses to TPC Craig Ranch include Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Scottsdale, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Deere Run, CC of Jackson and Plantation Course of Kapalua.

Here is the scorecard for TPC Craig Ranch:

Recent History/Winners

2023: Jason Day (-23/261); 18-1

2022: K.H. Lee (-26/262); 100-1

2021: K. H. Lee (-25/263); 150-1

2020: Tournament canceled (COVID-19)

2019: Sung Kang (-23/261); 125-1

2018: Aaron Wise (-23/261); 50-1

2017: Billy Horschel (-12/268); 125-1*

2016: Sergio Garcia (-15/265); 25-1**

2015: Steven Bowditch (-18/259); 500-1***

2014: Brendon Todd (-14/266); 100-1

2013: Sang-moon Bae (-13/267); 150-1

2012: Jason Dufner (-11/269); 22-1

2011: Keegan Bradley (-3/277) 200-1****

2010: Jason Day (-10/270); 100-1

Playoff win over Jason Day – *

Playoff win over Brooks Koepka – **

Par played at 69 for three days due to flooding – ***

Playoff win over Ryan Palmer – ****

Notes: 2018 and 2019 tournaments played at Trinity Forest Golf Club; 2010-2017 tournaments played at TPC Las Colinas. 

Statistical Analysis

Last year, half of the top 30 players on the leaderboard gained at least three strokes on approach. In 2022, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top 17 overall. Day ranked third on approach for his victory last year. KH Lee was eighth and second, respectively, in his two victories here. 

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 24 rounds)

1. Tom Hoge 27.6
2. Ryan Moore 23.5
3. Keith Mitchell 20.9
4. Jake Knapp 16.4
5. Will Zalatoris 15.7
6. Kelly Kraft 14.1
7. Joel Dahmen 13.9
8. Jhonattan Vegas 13.2
9. Andrew Novak 13
10. Aaron Rai 12.4
11. Doug Ghim 12.2
12. Parker Coody 12.2
13. Si Woo Kim 10.1
14. Dylan Wu 9.7
15. Greyson Sigg 9.6
16. Henrik Norlander 9.5
17. Daniel Berger 9.4
18. Ben Martin 9.3
19. Alex Noren 9.3

The average number under par here the last three years is just less than 25 under. This course is highly scoreable. 

Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 24 rounds)

1. Matti Schmid 18.9
2. Wesley Bryan 17.1
3. Tom Hoge 16.2
4. Taylor Pendrith 15.4
5. Keith Mitchell 15
6. Justin Lower 14.3
7. Hayden Springer 14
8. Byeong Hun An 14
9. Jordan Spieth 13.4
10. Jimmy Stanger 12.5
11. Garrick Higgo 11.8
12. Mark Hubbard 11.8
13. Trace Crowe 11.7
14. Tom Kim 10.7
15. Max Greyserman 10
16. Stewart Cink 9.6
17. Sam Ryder 9.1

On approach, over 36 percent of shots here have come from 200+ yards since the move to TPC Craig Ranch. 

Average Proximity Gained 200+ Yards (Last 24 rounds)

1. Patrick Fishburn 38.4 (11 rounds)
2. Robert MacIntyre 31.27
3. Andrew Novak 26.73
4. Kevin Yu 23.42
5. Thorbjørn Olesen 23.14
6. Aaron Rai 22.37
7. Kevin Dougherty 21.33
8. Sami Välimäki 20.47
9. J.J. Spaun 19.37
10. Keith Mitchell 17.56
11. Wilson Furr 16.8 (18 rounds)
12. Luke List 16.21
13. Tom Hoge 15.57
14. Peter Kuest 15.36
15. Scott Gutschewski 15.35
16. Paul Barjon 14.43
17. Austin Smotherman 13.71
18. Will Zalatoris 12.73
19. Ryan Palmer 12.23
20. Alexander Björk 12.04

TPC Craig Ranch was the third-easiest course to gain strokes putting on the PGA Tour last year. This event has been a putting contest of late. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens (Last 24 rounds)

1. Maverick McNealy 20.1
2. Aaron Baddeley 17.4
3. Thorbjørn Olesen 14.2
4. Dylan Wu 13.7
5. Garrick Higgo 13.4
6. Justin Lower 12.7
7. Taylor Montgomery 12.3
8. Beau Hossler 12
9. Harry Hall 12
10. Tom Kim 11.5
11. Paul Barjon 11.5
12. Justin Suh 11.1
13. Chad Ramey 9.5
14. Mackenzie Hughes 9.2
15. Martin Laird 8.4
16. Nick Hardy 8.2
17. Peter Kuest 8

With wide fairways plus the lack of hazards and non-penal rough, players are free to hit driver off the tee frequently. 

Average Driving Distance Gained (Last 24 rounds)

1. Peter Kuest 21.41 yards
2. Cameron Champ 19.24
3. Chris Gotterup 18.66
4. Byeong Hun An 15.88
5. Kevin Dougherty 15.36
6. Joseph Bramlett 14.77
7. Min Woo Lee 13.82
8. Alejandro Tosti 13.77
9. Vincent Norrman 12.76
10. Pierceson Coody 12.55
11. Blaine Hale Jr 12.42 (14 rounds)
12. Carl Yuan 11.88
13. Keith Mitchell 11.7
14. Garrick Higgo 11.08
15. Jhonattan Vegas 10.99
16. Kevin Yu 10.56
17. Hayden Springer 10.42
18. Callum Tarren 10.22

TPC Craig Ranch is the 10th-longest course on the PGA Tour. 

Strokes Gained: Total — Courses > 7,400 Yards (Last 24 rounds)

1. Will Zalatoris 34.5
2. Matt Kuchar 33.2
3. Sam Stevens 32.6
4. Sungjae Im 31.4
5. Jordan Spieth 25.7
6. Michael Kim 23.7
7. Byeong Hun An 23
8. Nate Lashley 22.9
9. Jhonattan Vegas 20.8
10. Henrik Norlander 20.5
11. Mark Hubbard 20.4
12. Aaron Baddeley 20.3
13. Harry Hall 20.1
14. Thomas Detry 20
15. Erik Barnes 19.7 (14 rounds)
16. Jason Day 18.5
17. Nico Echavarria 18
18. Hayden Springer 17.7
19. Chan Kim 17

Even with the rough grown out last year, TPC Craig Ranch played as the fourth-easiest course on the PGA Tour last year. 

Strokes Gained: Total — Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 24 rounds)

1. Chan Kim 33.2
2. Taylor Pendrith 33
3. Michael Kim 30
4. Peter Kuest 28.3
5. Chesson Hadley 27.3
6. Davis Thompson 25.2
7. Ben Griffin 24.5
8. Beau Hossler 24.3
9. Adam Scott 21.9
10. Doug Ghim 21.8
11. Will Zalatoris 20.3
12. Justin Lower 20.2
13. Adam Schenk 19.7
14. Ryo Hisatsune 17.9 (21 rounds)
15. Jordan Spieth 17.8
16. Daniel Berger 17

Selections

Tom Kim (28-1, DraftKings)

Dallas resident Tom Kim is off to a bit of a slow start in 2024 but is showing some signs of life lately. 

He ranked second on Approach at Augusta and 14th the last time out at Harbour Town, so the irons are in good shape.

While the driver has been a tad erratic, he can attack this course with its wide fairways and non-penal rough. 

Byeong Hun An (28-1, BetMGM)

An finished 14th in his lone appearance here at TPC Craig Ranch, but this is a course that the South Korean can attack off the tee. 

An ranks first in this field in birdies or better gained and second in this field in opportunities gained over his last 50 rounds. 

Adam Schenk (40-1, BetMGM)

In 2023, Schenk finished second at the Valspar and Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club, Texas), fourth at the John Deere Classic, with supporting top-7 finishes at the Memorial Tournament, Rocket Mortgage Classic and St. Jude Championship.

He got off to a slow start in 2024, but he has certainly picked it up since the West Coast Swing with a 19th at The Players, fifth at the Valero Texas Open and 12th at the Masters, which was his best finish in a major.

Keith Mitchell (41-1, Circa Sports)

Mitchell is one of the bigger hitters in the field and is the only player in this field that is rated in the top 25 on tour for both Bentgrass putting and Proximity Gained from 200+ yards.

He ranks sixth in SG Off the Tee, 11th in SG Approach and seventh in SG Tee to Green overall this PGA Tour season.

Seamus Power (60-1, Circa Sports)

Power finished T-12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage in a “Signature Event” with a very strong field. In that start, he gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting. 

In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top 20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. 

Mark Hubbard (60-1, Bet365)

Hubbard has made 12 of 12 cuts this season and was third last week in New Orleans with partner Ryan Brehm. 

He is third in this week’s field for SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds. 

Peter Kuest (110-1, Bet365)

Kuest is off consecutive top-10 finishes at the Corales Puntacana and the Valero Texas Open. 

He finished 14th here last year on debut and leads the field this week for Average Driving Distance Gained.

Matchups and placement markets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks