AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Matthieu Pavon became the first Frenchman to win on the PGA Tour since 1907, winning the Farmers Insurance Open last weekend. He won in just his third start as a PGA Tour member. Pavon became the fourth consecutive long shot (125-1) to win in the 2024 season by draining an 8-foot birdie on the 72nd hole at Torrey Pines’ South Course for a one-stroke victory over Nicolai Højgaard. Pavon carded a final-round, 3-under 69 outside San Diego to finish at 13-under 275, rebounding from a missed 3-foot par putt at the 17th hole.
Pavon (100-1 this week) will be part of this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field. This year, Pebble Beach becomes a signature event, and the field is reduced to 80 players. You will notice that it is still a Pro-Am with the 80 professionals paired with 80 amateurs, but the latter play only the first two days.
Like many players, Rory McIlroy (8-1) has not played here frequently (just once in the last 10 years) but is here because Pebble Beach has become a signature event with elevated prize money, rankings points, etc. Scottie Scheffler (+850) makes his Pebble Beach debut this week.
Viktor Hovland (12-1) won the U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach in 2018. Xander Schauffele (14-1) has not been a frequent visitor to Pebble Beach but has started 2024 with three top-10 finishes.
Jordan Spieth (18-1) was the 2017 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion and has played here every year tallying six top-10 finishes in his last 10 appearances. Max Homa (18-1) has two top-10s in his last three starts here.
Patrick Cantlay (20-1) was third here in 2021 and fourth in 2022.
Collin Morikawa (22-1), Justin Thomas (28-1) and Ludvig Åberg (28-1) follow on the odds board.
The Event
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was founded in 1937 as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Am and was played near San Diego before being moved to the Monterey Peninsula in 1947 after World War II. It was a 54-hole event until 1958. The Crosby name remained on the event through 1985, eight years after his passing. AT&T took over as the title sponsor in 1986 and has stayed in that role ever since. The Monterey Peninsula Foundation, chaired by the iconic Clint Eastwood, is the longtime event organizer and philanthropic organization. Eastwood was a regular participant in this event until 2016 but still serves as the tournament’s host and regularly appears in the CBS Sports booth for commentary over the tournament weekend.
In previous years, there were 156 professionals and 156 amateurs paired together to play a three-course rotation. This year, only 80 professionals and 80 amateurs are here playing a two-course rotation of Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. This year the amateurs are predominantly athletes and lower-handicap CEO-types. So no Bill Murray or Ray Romano slowing play.
As a newly minted “signature event,” there will be no cut at Pebble Beach this year.
Many golfing legends have won here, including Phil Mickelson (1998, 2005, 2007, 2012, 2019), who has five Pebble Beach wins, tied for the most with Mark O’Meara (1985, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1997). Other multiple-time winners here include Sam Snead (1937, 1938, 1941, 1950), Jack Nicklaus (1967, 1972, 1973), Johnny Miller (1974, 1987, 1994) and Tom Watson (1977, 1978). Four players have won both an AT&T and a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach — Nicklaus, Watson, Tom Kite and Tiger Woods.
The Field
In recent years, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has struggled to attract an elite field. In fact, last year just 21 of the top 100 in the Official World Golf Rankings were in the field with more than half ranked outside the top 300. Between more lucrative events overseas, its place on the schedule before the popular Phoenix Open and most golfers not wanting to play six-hour rounds with amateurs, the best players have annually skipped Pebble Beach.
That is not the case this year as every eligible player in the top 30 of the world rankings, including the entire top 50 in the 2022-2023 FedExCup standings will be in attendance at Pebble Beach. Also playing are the top 10 finishers in the FedExCup Fall standings along with the best points earners from the last three “swing” events (Aon Swing 5).
The purse has also increased, with primary sponsor AT&T bearing most of the cost, from $9.3 million to $20 million with the winner earning $3.6 million.
Top 50 on prior year’s FedExCup points list
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Rory McIlroy
Lucas Glover
Max Homa
Patrick Cantlay
Brian Harman
Wyndham Clark
Matt Fitzpatrick
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Keegan Bradley
Rickie Fowler
Xander Schauffele
Tom Kim
Sungjae Im
Tony Finau
Corey Conners
Si Woo Kim
Taylor Moore
Nick Taylor
Adam Schenk
Collin Morikawa
Jason Day
Sam Burns
Emiliano Grillo
Tyrrell Hatton
Jordan Spieth
Sepp Straka
Sahith Theegala
Chris Kirk
Denny McCarthy
Justin Rose
Andrew Putnam
Kurt Kitayama
Adam Svensson
Harris English
J.T. Poston
Lee Hodges
Seamus Power
Cameron Young
Eric Cole
Byeong Hun An
Adam Hadwin
Tom Hoge
Brendon Todd
Cam Davis
Patrick Rodgers
Hideki Matsuyama
Mackenzie Hughes
Aon Next 10 (Nos. 51-60 in final 2023 FedExCup Fall standings)
Beau Hossler
Ludvig Åberg
Ben Griffin
Taylor Montgomery
Matt Kuchar
Nick Hardy
J.J. Spaun
Sam Ryder
Luke List
Alex Smalley
Leading finisher from the Race to Dubai, not otherwise exempt
Nicolai Højgaard
Aon Swing 5
Matthieu Pavon
Grayson Murray
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Kevin Yu
Stephan Jaeger
Current-year tournament winners, not including additional events
Nick Dunlap
Top 30 Official World Golf Ranking
Justin Thomas
Sponsor exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Peter Malnati
Maverick McNealy
Adam Scott
Webb Simpson
Players beyond No. 60 in final 2023 FedExCup Fall standings not otherwise exempt (if needed to fill field to 80 players)
Alex Noren
Thomas Detry
Mark Hubbard
Erik van Rooyen
Brandon Wu
Davis Riley
S.H. Kim
Keith Mitchell
Note: Tyrrell Hatton joined LIV Golf and Hayden Buckley is the first alternate in the field.
The Courses
Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of the game’s most iconic courses. Designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant in 1919 and later renovated by Arnold Palmer and Thad Layton in 2016, it is a par-72, 6,972-yard coastal layout with nine holes played by the Pacific Ocean. Pebble Beach is the second shortest annual course on the PGA Tour. It is also heavily bunkered (118 in all, the most on tour). Wind can definitely affect scoring here on this exposed track; however, the Poa/Ryegrass fairways are the fourth widest on the PGA Tour at an average of 41 yards. The Poa Annua greens are the smallest on tour (3,500 square feet) and slow (10.5 stimpmeter). Pebble Beach has been part of this event’s rotation since 1947 and typically plays as the hardest layout of the week.
Because of the angular hole layouts, Pebble Beach concedes the shortest average driving distance on tour, forcing layups on many holes off the tee, and almost completely removing any advantage for longer hitters. The emphasis on approach shots is even higher this week due to this course leading some of the lowest Greens In Regulation percentages on tour.
The rough has been grown out a little more (two to three inches) this year with the field of elite players, plus dropping some of the higher handicap amateurs.
Most of the fairways tilt toward the ocean and are set across the holes. This results in players often hitting their approach shots from uneven lies with the ball above or below their feet.
Comparable layouts to Pebble Beach include the other two courses in the usual rotation — Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula (which is not part of the event this year), as well as Port Royal, Sea Island, El Camaleon and Waialae.
Spyglass Hill Golf Course is a par-72 of 7,041 yards that is a tree-lined links-style track. It was designed in 1966 by Robert Trent Jones Sr. and was lengthened a bit in a 2019 remodel. Even post-remodel, Spyglass is still the third shortest of the courses played annually on the PGA Tour. It has substantially more protection from the wind than Pebble Beach but can play the most difficult (eighth toughest on tour last year) of the three. The fairways are also on the narrow side (29.5 yards on average). Poa Annua greens await the players as well, but they are larger (5,000 square feet) and slower (10.5 stimpmeter) than those at Pebble Beach. Spyglass Hill has been part of the event every year but one since 1967.
Comparable layouts to Spyglass Hill include the two other courses in the rotation — Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula, as well as Port Royal, Sea Island, El Camaleon and Waialae.
Similar to last week at Torrey Pines, players will play one of the first two rounds at Pebble Beach and the other at Spyglass Hill. The final two rounds will be at Pebble Beach.
Recent History/Winners
2023: Justin Rose (-18/269); 35-1
2022: Tom Hoge (-19/268); 60-1
2021: Daniel Berger (-18/270); 18-1
2020: Nick Taylor (-19/268); 160-1
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19/268); 25-1
2018: Ted Potter, Jr. (-17/270); 500-1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19/268); 9-1
2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17/270); 300-1
2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22/265); 25-1
2014: Jimmy Walker (-11/276); 28-1
2013: Brandt Snedeker (-19/267); 14-1
2012: Phil Mickelson (-17/269); 25-1
2011: D.A. Points (-15/271); 80-1
2010: Dustin Johnson (-16/270); 22-1
Winning Trends
- 16 of the last 17 winners had at least one previous PGA Tour win.
- All of the last 14 winners had played in at least two previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Ams.
- All of the last 15 winners had a finish of 16th or better in at least one of their previous three starts here.
- 12 of the last 15 winners had at least one top-11 finish from earlier in the season.
- 48 of the last 52 winners were Americans.
Statistical Analysis
Pebble Beach is the sixth-toughest annual course on the PGA Tour in which to gain strokes on approach due to several factors, including many sidehill lies, elevated greens that are small (3500 square feet) and windy conditions.
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 68
- Collin Morikawa 46.5
- Lucas Glover 46.5
- Mark Hubbard 41.8
- Xander Schauffele 40.9
- Hideki Matsuyama 40
- Sam Ryder 37.9
- Eric Cole 35.2
- Alex Smalley 34.5
- Russell Henley 34.5
- Corey Conners 34.4
- Viktor Hovland 33.9
- Rory McIlroy 33.4
- Rickie Fowler 33.1
- Adam Schenk 31.7
- Tony Finau 30
- Patrick Cantlay 28.1
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 27.1
- JJ Spaun 26.3
- Tom Kim 25.6
Pebble Beach has the shortest average driving distance on tour, averaging only 272 yards, so distance does not matter all that much and the wider fairways make driving accuracy a high 72%.
Good Drives Gained measure how often a player lands his second shot on the green no matter where the tee shot landed.
Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 56.3
- Collin Morikawa 53.2
- Lucas Glover 47.1
- Viktor Hovland 46.5
- Andrew Putnam 41.5
- Russell Henley 37.5
- J.J. Spaun 37.1
- Si Woo Kim 37
- Tommy Fleetwood 34.8
- Corey Conners 32.8
- Patrick Cantlay 32.8
- Xander Schauffele 32.7
- Mark Hubbard 30.9
- Sam Ryder 29.5
- Sepp Straka 29
- Brendon Todd 28.6
- Emiliano Grillo 25.2
- Tom Kim 24.7
- Lee Hodges 23.9
- Adam Svensson 22.4
46% of the approach shots are 150 yards or less with 100-125 yards being the most common range.
Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Brendon Todd 7.27
- Lucas Glover 6.52
- Hideki Matsuyama 6.09
- Matthieu Pavon 5.74 (18 rounds)
- Byeong Hun An 5.72
- Collin Morikawa 5.31
- Rory McIlroy 5.06
- Eric Cole 5.05
- Russell Henley 4.58
- J.J. Spaun 4.2
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 4.13
- Justin Thomas 4.02
- Adam Hadwin 3.92
- Sam Ryder 3.92
- Justin Rose 3.75
- Alex Smalley 3.49
- Rickie Fowler 3.35
- Chris Kirk 3.29
- Scottie Scheffler 3.15
- Tom Hoge 3
Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole.
With so many players missing greens, scrambling becomes even more important, not just from the rough, but also from Pebble’s many difficult green-side bunkers.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 25.1
- Rickie Fowler 24.2
- Brendon Todd 21.8
- Alex Noren 21.2
- Mackenzie Hughes 18.1
- S.H. Kim 17.5
- Justin Thomas 17.2
- Hideki Matsuyama 16
- Jason Day 16
- Russell Henley 15.6
- Matt Fitzpatrick 15.6
- Taylor Montgomery 15.2
- Tommy Fleetwood 14.9
- Stephan Jaeger 14.8
- Byeong Hun An 14.6
- Sahith Theegala 14.5
- Si Woo Kim 14.5
- Wyndham Clark 14.3
- Beau Hossler 14.3
- Rory McIlroy 13.5
Scrambling Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Brian Harman 23.7
- Alex Noren 23.5
- Maverick McNealy 22.2
- J.T. Poston 21.3
- Denny McCarthy 21
- Brendon Todd 19.9
- Taylor Montgomery 19.5
- Sam Burns 17.6
- Peter Malnati 17.2
- Matt Kuchar 16.9
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 15.7
- Chris Kirk 15.6
- Wyndham Clark 15.2
- Matt Fitzpatrick 14.9
- Adam Hadwin 14.7
- Max Homa 14.3
- Tommy Fleetwood 13
- Beau Hossler 12.7
- Jordan Spieth 12.5
- Harris English 12.4
Three par-4s (Holes 1, 11, 15) measure 350-400 yards.
Par-4s Gained 350-400 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Jordan Spieth 21.7
- Lucas Glover 19.4
- J.T. Poston 19
- Eric Cole 16
- Scottie Scheffler 14.6
- Russell Henley 13.4
- Keith Mitchell 13
- Collin Morikawa 12.8
- Taylor Montgomery 11.7
- Stephan Jaeger 11.5
- Emiliano Grillo 11.3
- Brandon Wu 10.7
- Xander Schauffele 10.7
- Corey Conners 10.7
- Adam Scott 10.4
- Adam Hadwin 10.3
- Keegan Bradley 8.9
- Justin Thomas 8.7
- Luke List 8.5
- Alex Smalley 8.5
Five par-4s (Holes 3, 8, 10, 13, 16) measure 400-450 yards.
Par-4s Gained 400-450 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Russell Henley 37.6
- Beau Hossler 28
- Justin Rose 26.9
- Scottie Scheffler 25.5
- Adam Scott 24.5
- Cam Davis 23.8
- Byeong Hun An 21.9
- Ludvig Åberg 20.9
- Rory McIlroy 20.3
- Tom Kim 20.2
- Sam Ryder 20.1
- Denny McCarthy 19.3
- Lucas Glover 18.8
- Adam Svensson 17.8
- Alex Noren 17.6
- Wyndham Clark 15.9
- Chris Kirk 15.9
- Collin Morikawa 15.6
- Adam Hadwin 14.4
- Brendon Todd 14.4
The Poa Annua greens at Pebble Beach rank among the five toughest on the entire tour and are especially difficult from 15 feet and inward.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Greens)
- Peter Malnati 36
- Webb Simpson 35.2
- Denny McCarthy 35.1
- Xander Schauffele 33.8
- Wyndham Clark 33.2
- Max Homa 31.2
- Maverick McNealy 30.3
- Adam Scott 28.9
- Jason Day 27.6
- Matt Kuchar 25.9
- Brendon Todd 22.5
- Patrick Rodgers 21.6
- Harris English 20.7
- Nick Taylor 20
- Andrew Putnam 20
- Mark Hubbard 18.3
- Rory McIlroy 17.1
- Patrick Cantlay 15.1
- Jordan Spieth 14.4
- Sam Burns 12.7
Spyglass Hill (third shortest) and Pebble Beach (second shortest) are two of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained: Total Courses less than 7,200 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Nick Dunlap 2.37 (6 rounds)
- Patrick Cantlay 2.21
- Russell Henley 2.1
- Justin Thomas 1.85
- Xander Schauffele 1.74
- Eric Cole 1.69
- J.T. Poston 1.62
- Rory McIlroy 1.62
- Scottie Scheffler 1.57
- Seamus Power 1.56
- Brian Harman 1.55
- Ludvig Åberg 1.55 (22 rounds)
- Viktor Hovland 1.5
- Taylor Montgomery 1.43 (34 rounds)
- Tony Finau 1.42
- Sungjae Im 1.35
- Keegan Bradley 1.32
- Collin Morikawa 1.26
- Corey Conners 1.2
- Byeong Hun An 1.19
Note: Total Strokes Gained Per Round
Selections
Jordan Spieth (20-1, FanDuel)
If there is a “horse for the course” near the top of the odds board at Pebble Beach, it’s Spieth.
He won here in 2017 and has six top-10 finishes in his 10 appearances in this event.
Spieth was third at The Sentry to begin the season having led the field in putting and gaining strokes in all categories.
Patrick Cantlay (20-1, Circa Sports)
Cantlay has never really showed all that well at Torrey Pines and finished T-56 last week. However, he is pretty good at Pebble Beach having never missed the cut in seven attempts.
He finished third here in 2021 when he led the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and followed up with a fourth the following year.
Jason Day (55-1, FanDuel)
Day struggled last week with a rare missed cut at Torrey Pines, where he has won twice before.
However, his price has more than doubled since last week. Even in a signature event with more class atop the field, that seems like a bit of an overreaction considering he has six top-7 finishes and seven top-11 finishes here in his last eight appearances.
Beau Hossler (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Hossler finished T-6 for us last week, but his performance off the tee kept him from really being in the thick of it in Saturday’s final round.
The wide fairways at Pebble Beach can mitigate lesser performance off the tee and Hossler did very well with his irons and putter at Torrey Pines.
He was third here two years ago.
Wyndham Clark (80-1, BetMGM)
Clark has two missed cuts in three appearances here and has finishes of 39th and 29th to start 2024.
He closed The Sentry with a 63 and shot a 64 in the second round at the American Express.
The putter has been slow to fire, but he gets back on the Poa greens this week where he is one of the best on the PGA Tour.
Adam Scott (85-1, Circa Sports)
Scott began his 2024 campaign with a T-7 in the Dubai Desert Classic, which was his ninth top-10 finish in his last 18 starts and has posted four top-10s in a row dating to Bermuda last November.
While Scott missed the cut here in 2018 and 2019, he also posted his last major championship top-10 finish at Pebble Beach in the 2019 U.S. Open.
Placement market and matchup bets will be posted Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
