RBC Heritage Golf Best Bets

RBC Heritage

Scottie Scheffler won his second Masters in three years after Amen Corner ended the hopes of his three pursuers.

Scheffler, the 4-1 pre-tournament favorite, had actually been passed by debutant Ludvig Åberg on the front nine, but Scheffler birdied the eighth, ninth and 10th holes to move back into the lead.

Shortly afterward, Åberg double-bogeyed the 11th hole, Collin Morikawa followed suit, having already dropped two shots at the ninth, and Max Homa also doubled the short 12th and Scheffler was on cruise control from there.

He birdied the 13th hole having found the green in two, tapped in for birdie at the 14th and was four ahead when he birdied the 16th, pars at the final two holes sealing a four-shot victory over Åberg.

Now Scheffler, once again a 4-1 pre-tournament favorite and the clear-cut No. 1 player in the world, leads the field for this week’s signature event at the RBC Heritage in South Carolina. Keep in mind, though, that he and wife Meredith are due to welcome their first child perhaps as early as this week, so he could be a risk to withdraw from the tournament. Scheffler’s best friend on the PGA Tour, Sam Burns (45-1) is in the same situation. 

Xander Schauffele (11-1), fourth at last year’s RBC Heritage, rose to No. 3 in the OWGR with an eighth-place finish at Augusta National. He got onto the first page of the leaderboard eventually but never completely recovered from starting 2 over after four holes on Thursday. 

Rory McIlroy (12-1), paired with Scheffler and Schauffele for the first two rounds last week, never got anything going and his major championship drought continues as does his quest to complete the career Grand Slam, which will have to wait for yet another year. 

Åberg (14-1) showed that he is going to be a fixture on leaderboards at major championships for years to come with a runner-up in his first career major having led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting and finishing second for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. 

Patrick Cantlay (16-1) shot a 76 on Sunday to fall out of the top 20 last week but has always been a horse for this course at Harbour Town Golf Links with four top-3 finishes in his last six appearances, including a runner-up two years ago behind Jordan Spieth (28-1), who missed the cut at Augusta and continues to battle left wrist issues. 

Spieth lost in a playoff here last year to Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1), who fell outside of the top 20 late in his Sunday round at the Masters but returns to Hilton Head as the defending champion. 

Morikawa (20-1) and Tommy Fleetwood (20-1) finished T-3 last weekend along with Homa (22-1). 

Will Zalatoris (28-1) and Cameron Young (33-1) both finished inside the top 10 last weekend with a T-9. 

Every eligible player inside the OWGR Top 30 except for Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland will be in attendance this week in Hilton Head.

The Event

The RBC Heritage was established in 1969 as the Heritage Classic and the inaugural event was won by “The King” himself Arnold Palmer at just 1 under par (283), which is still the highest score to win this event. Harbour Town Golf Links at Sea Pines Resort on Hilton Head Island, S.C., has been the event’s host since its inception. RBC, the Royal Bank of Canada, has been the event’s title sponsor since 2012. Except for 2020 (due to COVID-19), the RBC Heritage has been played the week following the Masters since 1983. 

Ten men have won this tournament more than once through 2021.

5 wins

Davis Love III: 1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2003

3 wins

Hale Irwin: 1971, 1973, 1994

Stewart Cink: 2000, 2004, 2021

2 wins

Johnny Miller: 1972, 1974

Hubert Green: 1976, 1978

Tom Watson: 1979, 1982

Fuzzy Zoeller: 1983, 1986

Payne Stewart: 1989, 1990

Boo Weekley: 2007, 2008

Jim Furyk: 2010, 2015

Other notable winners here include Jack Nicklaus (1975), Nick Faldo (1984), Bernhard Langer (1985), Greg Norman (1988), Nick Price (1997) and Jordan Spieth (2022).

The Field

The RBC Heritage is another limited-field, no-cut event, smaller than even the Masters with only 69 players scheduled to compete. Most elite players rarely play the week after a major. However, this is a Signature Event with a $20 million purse, including a $3.6 million share to the winner, along with PIP (Player Impact Program) requirements, The last three winners of this event, Fitzpatrick, Spieth and Stewart Cink participated in the Masters the week before.

Field Notes

• The Aon Next 10 in this week’s field are: Ludvig Åberg, Matthieu Pavon, Will Zalatoris, Stephan Jaeger, Akshay Bhatia, Jake Knapp, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Peter Malnati, Austin Eckroat and Erik van Rooyen.
• The Aon Swing 5 in this week’s field are: Brice Garnett, Erik Barnes, Thomas Detry, Chandler Phillips and Alejandro Tosti.
• Kevin Kisner, Shane Lowry, Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland are in the field on Sponsor Exemptions.

The Course

​Harbour Town Golf Links was designed in 1967 by Pete Dye and assisted by Jack Nicklaus, which was the first foray into course design for the “Golden Bear.” Harbour Town plays as a par-71 of 7,213 yards. It is a Coastal links that is tree-lined with doglegs and narrow sight lines off the tee as you will find with most courses in the Carolinas. The trees can also disguise the wind. Some of these doglegs force you to lay up off the tee with less than driver. 

The fairways and rough are overseeded Ryegrass and the greens are overseeded Poa Trivialis. The rough was shortened from last year and will be around 1.3 inches this year. The average fairway width is around 33.5 yards, which is less than tour average, so ball striking has an even greater importance. The tiny, dome-shaped greens (a Dye trademark) average around 3,700 square feet and are the second smallest on the PGA Tour and will roll at an average speed (11.5) on the stimpmeter. 

Water comes into play on nine holes with six of those affecting approach shots.

Harbour Town is a par-71 course with three par-5s and 11 par-4s. Two of the three par-5s are easily reachable in two shots and offer an excellent chance at birdie or eagle. Overall, the par-4s measure very short compared with the average. Seven of them play under 450 yards with none longer than 475. While eight have historically played over par, that number has gotten closer to even over the last few tournaments. While the par-4s and par-5s are average in difficulty, the four par-3s rank as the ninth toughest on tour, each playing over 190 yards.

Most of the first 16 holes at Harbour Town play inland as the course weaves through natural woodlands that are surrounded by a residential housing development.

The 17th and 18th holes are the highlights at Harbour Town. The 17th hole is a par-3 with a beautiful background of the Calibogue Sound. It plays 185 yards over water to a green fronted by a large bunker that runs the entire length to the left side with bunkers on the right.

The 18th is one of the most famous holes on the PGA Tour. It is a tough par-4 that features the recognizable 90-foot Harbour Town Lighthouse. Though it has a massive 75-yard fairway, it plays as one of the most difficult holes on the course due to the water that lines the left side of the hole along with the wind gusts that blow off the Calibogue Sound right into the player’s face.

Pete Dye is the designer, and there are several Dye courses every year on the PGA Tour schedule if you are looking for a course correlation. They include:

Austin Country Club — WGC Dell Match Play since 2016

Crooked Stick — 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship.

Ocean Course, Kiawah Island — 2012 and 2021 PGA Championship

TPC River Highlands — The Travelers

TPC Louisiana — Zurich Classic of New Orleans

TPC Sawgrass — The Players Championship

TPC Stadium, PGA West — The American Express since 2016

Whistling Straits — 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship

Aside from the Dye designs (especially TPC River Highlands and TPC Sawgrass), other courses with strong correlations include Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC and Sea Island Resort. 

​Recent History/Winners​

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17/267); 28-1*

2022: Jordan Spieth (-13/271); 40-1**

2021: Stewart Cink (-19/265); 125-1

2020: Webb Simpson (-22/262); 30-1

2019: C.T. Pan (-12/272); 160-1

2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12/272); 250-1***

2017: Wesley Bryan (-13/271); 80-1

2016: Branden Grace (-9/275); 40-1

2015: Jim Furyk (-18/266); 25-1****

2014: Matt Kuchar (-11/273); 18-1

2013: Graeme McDowell (-9/275); 40-1*****

2012: Carl Pettersson (-14/270); 55-1

2011: Brandt Snedeker (-12/272); 35-1******

2010: Jim Furyk (-13/271); 14-1*******

Playoff win over Jordan Spieth – *

Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – **

Playoff win over Si Woo Kim – ***

Playoff win over Kevin Kisner – ****

Playoff win over Webb Simpson – *****

Playoff win over Luke Donald – ******

Playoff win over Brian Davis – *******

Tournament Angles and Trends

• Masters Hangover
  • From 2010-2023, only four players finished top 5 at the Masters and the following week at the RBC Heritage (2011: Luke Donald, T-4 Masters, T-2 RBC Heritage; 2014: Matt Kuchar, T-5 Masters, 1st RBC Heritage, 2022: Shane Lowry, T-3 Masters; T-3 RBC Heritage; 2023: Jordan Spieth, T-4 Masters, 2nd RBC Heritage).
    

Year	RBC Heritage Winner	Masters Finish
2023	Matt Fitzpatrick	T-10
2022	Jordan Spieth	MC
2021	Stewart Cink	T-12
2019	C.T. Pan	DNP
2018	Satoshi Kodaira	T-28
2017	Wesley Bryan	DNP
2016	Branden Grace	MC
2015	Jim Furyk	MC
2014	Matt Kuchar	MC
2013	Graeme McDowell	MC
2012	Carl Pettersson	DNP
2011	Brandt Snedeker	DNP
2010	Jim Furyk	MC

This angle may not be as effective as in past years, though, with the RBC Heritage now being a signature event and such an elite field now taking part. 

• In eight of the last 11 years, the eventual winner has been two or more strokes off the lead after 54 holes (in-play wagering).
  • ’22: Spieth 3 back, ’21: Cink 5 ahead, ’20: Simpson tied for lead, ’19: Pan 2 back, ’18: Kodaira 6 back, ’17: Bryan 4 back, ’16: Grace 3 back, ’15: Furyk 4 back, ’14: Kuchar 4 back, ’13: McDowell 4 back.
• Only three 54-hole leaders over the last 11 years have gone on to win here: Carl Pettersson, 2012; Stewart Cink, 2021; Matt Fitzpatrick, 2023. 

Statistical Analysis

Unlike last week’s wide fairways at Augusta National, the fairways at Harbour Town are tight and the greens are small, so strong approach play is even more vital than usual. 

The 60% GIR rate is well below the PGA Tour average of 65%. Harbour Town is the eighth-most difficult course to gain with approach on the PGA Tour.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 44.1
2. Tom Hoge 40
3. Corey Conners 32.1
4. Xander Schauffele 24.8
5. Shane Lowry 23.4
6. Tony Finau 23.3
7. Lucas Glover 22.4
8. Austin Eckroat 22.4
9. Gary Woodland 21.5
10. Justin Thomas 21.5
11. Will Zalatoris 20.2
12. Ludvig Åberg 17.6
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 17.4
14. Erik Van Rooyen 17.4
15. Akshay Bhatia 16.5
16. Nick Taylor 16
17. Adam Svensson 15.5
18. Chris Kirk 15
19. Collin Morikawa 14.9
20. Andrew Putnam 14.5
21. Kurt Kitayama 14.3
22. Cameron Young 14

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 24 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 32.4
2. Tom Hoge 31.1
3. Corey Conners 23.8
4. Austin Eckroat 21.2
5. Cameron Young 20.1
6. Shane Lowry 20.1
7. Tony Finau 20
8. Jake Knapp 18.7
9. Akshay Bhatia 18.4
10. Justin Thomas 17.6
11. Lucas Glover 17.1
12. Nick Taylor 17
13. Will Zalatoris 15.7
14. Ludvig Åberg 15.2
15. Xander Schauffele 14.4
16. Si Woo Kim 12.4
17. Taylor Moore 11.5
18. Wyndham Clark 11.4
19. Erik Van Rooyen 10.9

Nearly half of the approach shots at Harbour Town measure from 150-200 yards.

Average Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 14.28
2. Akshay Bhatia 12.18
3. Ludvig Åberg 12.17
4. Sepp Straka 12.08
5. Lucas Glover 9.24
6. Kurt Kitayama 8.42
7. Rory McIlroy 7.53
8. Chris Kirk 7.53
9. Tom Hoge 7.4
10. Keegan Bradley 7.14
11. Collin Morikawa 7.13
12. Corey Conners 7.11
13. Austin Eckroat 6.92
14. Stephan Jaeger 6.4
15. Chandler Phillips 6.4 (32 rounds)
16. Erik Van Rooyen 6.15
17. Russell Henley 5.89
18. Emiliano Grillo 4.69
19. Denny McCarthy 4.2
20. Adam Hadwin 4.14

Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole vs. the Field.

Average Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Austin Eckroat 13.74
2. Cameron Young 13.22
3. Eric Cole 11.79
4. Will Zalatoris 10.34
5. Tom Hoge 10.15
6. Gary Woodland 9.47
7. Erik Van Rooyen 9.24
8. Matt Fitzpatrick 8.88
9. Collin Morikawa 8.44
10. Jake Knapp 7.93
11. Stephan Jaeger 7.86
12. Kurt Kitayama 7.05
13. Adam Svensson 6.79
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 6.71
15. Max Homa 6.37
16. Byeong Hun An 5.91
17. Keegan Bradley 5.84
18. J.T. Poston 5.28
19. Tony Finau 5.21
20. Scottie Scheffler 5.17

Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole vs. the Field

Harbour Town has the fewest rate of drives over 280 yards at only 48.3%. It also has the second-lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour at only 276.5 yards per drive. This is largely due to players clubbing down off the tee and not taking the driver out of the bag very often. 

With the rough length short again, players won’t be penalized by slightly missing the fairway. Harbour Town yields the second-lowest number for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee on the PGA Tour.

Good Drives Gained is a better measure for off-the-tee success here.

Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds) 

1. Corey Conners 36
2. Scottie Scheffler 34.4
3. Si Woo Kim 32.1
4. Andrew Putnam 29.9
5. Shane Lowry 29.7
6. Will Zalatoris 26.2
7. Lucas Glover 26
8. Akshay Bhatia 25.4
9. Austin Eckroat 25.1
10. Brice Garnett 25
11. Tommy Fleetwood 22.2
12. Taylor Moore 21.2
13. Harris English 19.5
14. Collin Morikawa 18.7
15. Cameron Young 18.6
16. Sepp Straka 17.7
17. Rory McIlroy 17.6
18. Emiliano Grillo 17.1
19. Patrick Rodgers 15.5
20. Thomas Detry 15.2

We can also look at success on courses of < than 7,200 yards or “less than driver” courses. 

Strokes Gained: Total – Courses < 7,200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 76.8
2. Patrick Cantlay 74.4
3. Justin Thomas 73.5
4. Russell Henley 73.1
5. Keegan Bradley 69.9
6. Xander Schauffele 65.8
7. Scottie Scheffler 63.9
8. Sam Burns 55.1
9. J.T. Poston 51.4
10. Collin Morikawa 50.7
11. Brian Harman 47.2
12. Byeong Hun An 45.2
13. Denny McCarthy 45.1
14. Ludvig Åberg 43 (25 rounds)
15. Emiliano Grillo 42
16. Sungjae Im 41.8
17. Chris Kirk 41.6
18. Brendon Todd 41.5
19. Adam Svensson 41.5
20. Wyndham Clark 41.1
21. Sahith Theegala 41

While gaining strokes around the green is a tad easier here than the average course on the PGA Tour, the greens are small and easy to miss. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 36 rounds)

1. Mackenzie Hughes 21.6
2. Si Woo Kim 16.7
3. Scottie Scheffler 14.7
4. Xander Schauffele 13.9
5. Lucas Glover 12.9
6. Denny McCarthy 12.9
7. Brendon Todd 12.5
8. Justin Thomas 12.3
9. Adam Schenk 10.5
10. Stephan Jaeger 10.1
11. Taylor Moore 9.9
12. Harris English 9
13. Akshay Bhatia 8.4
14. Jordan Spieth 8.3
15. Jason Day 7.8
16. Jake Knapp 7.5
17. Russell Henley 7.4
18. Max Homa 7.3
19. Webb Simpson 7.1

Strokes Gained: Around The Green (24 rounds)

1. Mackenzie Hughes 18.9
2. Scottie Scheffler 13
3. Xander Schauffele 12.5
4. Lucas Glover 12.2
5. Taylor Moore 11.7
6. Justin Thomas 11.7
7. Brendon Todd 11.1
8. Denny McCarthy 10.7
9. Jason Day 9.6
10. Harris English 9.1
11. Si Woo Kim 9.1
12. Andrew Putnam 9.1
13. Adam Schenk 7.1
14. Tommy Fleetwood 7
15. Chris Kirk 6.8
16. Russell Henley 6.7
17. Stephan Jaeger 5.7
18. Tony Finau 4.8

The last three winners here at Harbour Town have been rated fourth, sixth and fourth for Scrambling during their respective winning weeks. 

Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 26.2
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 14.8
3. Brendon Todd 13.3
4. Justin Rose 12.6
5. Mackenzie Hughes 12.4
6. Adam Schenk 12.4
7. Max Homa 11.4
8. Sam Burns 10.7
9. Andrew Putnam 10
10. Eric Cole 9.8
11. Scottie Scheffler 9.7
12. Peter Malnati 9.7
13. Jake Knapp 9.6
14. Si Woo Kim 8.5 
15. Ludvig Åberg 8.3
16. Erik Barnes 7.9
17. Xander Schauffele 7.5
18. Tommy Fleetwood 6.2
19. Russell Henley 6

Six of the 11 Par 4s at Harbour Town measure 400-450 Yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4 — 400 to 450 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20.3
2. Russell Henley 19.9
3. Scottie Scheffler 17.6
4. Ludvig Åberg 16.7
5. Andrew Putnam 16.2
6. Cameron Young 15.9
7. J.T. Poston 15.6
8. Shane Lowry 15
9. Lucas Glover 14.9
10. Justin Thomas 13.9
11. Peter Malnati 12.9
12. Byeong Hun An 11.5
13. Xander Schauffele 11.2
14. Chris Kirk 10.8
15. Justin Rose 10.2
16. Sahith Theegala 9.2
17. Taylor Moore 9
18. Eric Cole 9

Correlated courses to Harbour Town include TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, Waialae, Colonial, Sedgefield, Sea Island (Seaside Course), Innisbrook and Pebble Beach. 

Strokes Gained: Total — Correlated Course History (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 80
2. Xander Schauffele 65.5
3. Russell Henley 62.5
4. Sam Burns 53.7
5. Brian Harman 49.7
6. Ludvig Åberg 49.5 (26 rounds)
7. Byeong Hun An 49.4
8. Wyndham Clark 47.5
9. Denny McCarthy 44.2
10. Patrick Cantlay 43
11. Corey Conners 42.5
12. Keegan Bradley 41.9
13. Max Homa 41.5
14. Justin Thomas 41.2
15. Rory McIlroy 39.2
16. Eric Cole 38.9
17. Shane Lowry 37.3
18. Adam Svensson 36.9
19. J.T. Poston 35.3
20. Si Woo Kim 34.1

Selections

Patrick Cantlay (18-1, Circa Sports)

Cantlay has not exactly gotten off to a flying start in 2024 and finished last week’s Masters with a disappointing Sunday round of 76.

Nonetheless, he is a horse for this course at Harbour Town with four top-3 finishes in his last six appearances.

Tommy Fleetwood (21-1, Circa Sports)

Fleetwood has found form of late finishing 10th at the Genesis, seventh in Texas before his third-place finish at Augusta.

He has finished 15th and 10th here the last two years and his game fits this course very well, so this could be the venue where he finally earns his long-awaited first PGA Tour victory. 

Cameron Young (28-1, BetMGM)

Speaking of first PGA Tour victories, Young is still looking for his maiden. 

Young finished ninth at the Masters, gaining 4.8 strokes off the tee, 2.3 strokes on approach and three strokes putting and finished third here two years ago. 

Tom Kim (50-1, Circa Sports)

Tom Kim finished a nondescript 30th at the Masters last week but shot the low round of the day on Sunday by two strokes with a 6-under 66 and can carry some positive momentum into this week. 

In addition to having posted a runner-up finish at the British Open plus two top-10s in the Scottish Open over the last two seasons, we know he is comfortable in the wind. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (66-1, BetRivers)

Bez is at his best on shorter layouts where strong iron play can flourish and strong finishes at the Sony, Pebble Beach and Colonial, plus a 13th earlier this season on the Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass at The Players show that he could go well here at Harbour Town, where he has made the cut on all three appearances. 

Sepp Straka (66-1, BetRivers)

Straka finished 16th at the Masters, where he ranked eighth from tee to green, 11th off the tee and 11th in approach play.

He also finished third at Harbour Town two years ago. 

Taylor Moore (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Moore finished 11th here on debut last year and is arguably one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour having made all 10 cuts this season (including a runner-up three weeks ago in Houston) and 15 in a row dating to last year’s British Open.

Placement markets, matchups and any other futures will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks