Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
Race 9 on Kentucky Derby Saturday carries a $1 million purse and a 4:06 p.m. Eastern post, kicking off the late pick four sequence that ends in the Kentucky Derby. Aragona and Beer split on top in a 14-horse field, with Aragona taking a maiden longshot and Beer pricing up another double-digit play.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 2 Let’s Be Frank
A maiden coming into a Grade 1 is unusual, but Aragona believes No. 2 Let’s Be Frank has run into bad luck rather than poor form. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the colt was buried in traffic in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and never asked for run, then chased home older horses off a layoff in his most recent start. “He’s a maiden on the way in. Yes, he’s going to be a big price in this race. Yes. But I have no problem with McCarthy running him in this race. This horse is good,” Beer said. The colt tends to lug in, so an inside post could play in his favor.
Beer’s top pick: No. 6 Black Hornet
Beer goes price shopping with No. 6 Black Hornet, 20-1 on the morning line for trainer Brendan Walsh. The colt is 2 for 2 on turf, winning both with sharp turns of foot. Beer dismissed his last race on synthetic. “He got an absolute brutal trip in that race. I mean, I don’t know what his rider was doing, but this horse was in the parking lot all the way around the track in there.” Declan Cannon retains the mount.
The favorite and the price-to-beat
No. 4 Stark Contrast, the 4-1 morning-line favorite, is the third selection for both handicappers. Aragona acknowledged the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up’s credentials but warned against a short price. Beer agreed.
Aragona’s second pick is No. 12 Remember Mamba, a perfect 3-for-3 closer. “I do think he’s the horse to beat. We’ll see if post 12 trips him up there,” Beer said.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 2 Let’s Be Frank
No. 12 Remember Mamba
No. 4 Stark Contrast
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 6 Black Hornet
No. 2 Let’s Be Frank
No. 4 Stark Contrast
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
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