Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Pat Day Mile Stakes at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
The $750,000 race goes off at 3:23 p.m. Eastern on Kentucky Derby Saturday and kicks off the late pick five sequence ending in the Run for the Roses. Aragona and Beer agree the race comes down to two lightly raced 3-year-olds making their stakes debuts, No. 1 Englishman and No. 6 Crude Velocity, and they split on the order at the top.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 1 Englishman
Englishman, trained by Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Jose Ortiz, is 2 for 2 and arrives off a romp at Fair Grounds in February that earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. Aragona thinks there is more in the tank than the figure suggests. “This horse could have run a 105 if they wanted to. They just chose not to that day,” he said.
Beer agrees the colt is dangerous and has him second. “He’s so fast, and it doesn’t even look like he’s trying to make the lead,” Beer said. “He’s got the rail here, but I think he’s fast enough to just come out of there, run, and make the early lead.”
Beer’s top pick: No. 6 Crude Velocity
The 5-2 morning-line favorite, Crude Velocity, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Florent Geroux, has won both starts and stretches out from 6 1/2 furlongs. Beer points to what the colt has done after the wire. “He put an acre of ground on those horses. He just kept going,” Beer said. “I don’t think added distance is going to be any problem for this horse.”
Aragona has him second and flagged a shared concern: Neither favorite has broken sharply, and how the jockeys ration that natural speed will shape the race.
The rest of the field
The handicappers split underneath. Aragona uses No. 8 Creole Chrome, trained by Joe Sharp, who turns back from the Blue Grass and gets a one-turn mile that should suit. Beer prefers No. 9 Lockstocknpharoah, trained by Thomas Drury Jr., as a price play despite a flat dirt debut in the Virginia Derby.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 1 Englishman
No. 6 Crude Velocity
No. 8 Creole Chrome
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 6 Crude Velocity
No. 1 Englishman
No. 9 Lockstocknpharoah
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
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