Belmont at Aqueduct Picks for Saturday, May 10 from Mike Somich:
With a very successful Kentucky Derby in the rearview mirror, it’s time to start looking ahead to the Preakness and the Belmont. In the weekend prior to the Preakness, all eyes turn to Belmont at Aqueduct, where we have four graded stakes, including the Belmont prep Peter Pan.
The Peter Pan, Belmont at Aqueduct, Race #11
We have seen the Peter Pan produce Belmont winners in the past, most recently Archangelo, and this year could be no different with a mix of up-and-coming horses and horses who came up short to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The morning line favorite is #8 Captain Cook, who was a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial over this track last time out. He chased Rodriguez all the way around and got his heart ripped out when he could not get by on the far turn. It was a better chasing effort than it looks on paper, but 2-1 still seems short versus this field.
#4 Hill Road will also take money here. He was on the Derby trail after switching to the Chad Brown barn and ran third in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s got Prat aboard, which is a plus, but he is a deep closer on a speed-favoring track that is expected to be sloppy. Hill Road is another one who just seems too short to win.
#1 Vassimo is one of two Pletcher runners who will head to post. He was very good to start his career with two wins before trying his hand on the Louisiana route to the Derby. Both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby were oddly run races which Vassimo never really found his place. He’s 5-1 today and I expect him to run well.
The other Pletcher runner is #6 Uncaged, who is the main beneficiary of the off track. He’s two for two over the muddy going, including a nice win over this track last time out. He has never run this far but is bred to handle the distance.
#3 Surfside Moon ran second to Captain Cook in the Withers and ran well off the layoff at Laurel last time out. He should improve today, and the Withers race puts him in the win discussion.
Top 4: 1-6-8-3
The Bet: $50 Win #1
Ruffian Stakes, Belmont at Aqueduct, Race #10
The ladies take the track in this Grade 2 one-mile race. Just like the Peter Pan, this is a wide-open race. Let’s kick it off with my top pick, #4 Sterling Silver. She has been running very well against state-bred competition and now steps up in the second start of her 6-year-old season. She has run well against this company in the past, so I do not doubt her ability, and she is at her best distance today. She is five for 12 over the track, two for four at the distance, and three for seven over an off track. The trip is right today with her still just off the pace, and the price is right at 9/2.
#9 Gun Song danced all the dances in her 3-year-old season, including a win in the Black Eyed Susan and a very, very good second to Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion. She has the talent to win, but there are two other horses that will be forwardly placed, which could heat up the pace. If she gets the trip, she can make her way to the winner’s circle.
#8 Jody’s Pride is perfect over this course and at this distance. She wants to stalk and pounce, which plays well versus the speed in this field. The layoff is a concern; she has not run since March, but her best is good enough to be a player here.
#3 Catherine Wheel also has a puncher’s chance in here. She was favored over Gun Song last season and is bred to love the off track.
Top 4: 4-9-8-3
The Bet: $50 Win #4
Spot Bets:
Belmont at Aqueduct, Race #8 – $50 Win #1 (If we are on the turf)
Belmont at Aqueduct, Race #7 – $50 Win #2
