Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst David Aragona handicaps the Friday, October 16 racing card at Belmont Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Cocktailsnkringle (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Cocktailsnkringle
2. Moe Eighty Eight
3. Papa Yo
COCKTAILSNKRINGLE hasn’t been particularly effective since stepping up to this N1X allowance level at Saratoga, but the trips haven’t quite worked out either time; stumbled at the start two back, which prevented him from attaining the forward position he needed out of the Wilson Chute; then las time he got taken in hand early and was shuffled too far back down the backside; then rode the rail on the turn over a track that appeared to favor outside paths; should get a more aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera this time and isn’t catching as deep a field for the level. MOE EIGHTY EIGHT is the big question mark in this race; his good effort will obviously crush this field, but it’s hard to know what to expect after he tailed off for his former trainer and went to the sidelines; Amelia Green has done well off layoffs, but this guy’s a little hard to trust at a short price. PAPA YO looks like the one to catch after improving with the switch to Linda Rice at Saratoga this summer; did get a very favorable setup when he ran 3rd at this level last time, but he was facing a tougher field that day.
Here are David’s thoughts on the other eight races on Friday’s Belmont Park card.
First Race
1. Malachi Miracle
2. Cybertapping
3. Rhythm Riot
Not scared of anyone with experience here, so will give a shot to firster MALACHI MIRACLE; Ken McPeek has excellent stats with this move, going 11/52 (21%, $4.26 ROI) with 2YO first-time starters in dirt routes over the last 5 years; Greatest Honour has had decent success in his first crop, and this colt’s dam is a half-sister to G3-placed dirt router Runnin’ Ray and stakes-placed turfer Sounds Like a Plan. Among those with experience, CYBERTAPPING appears to have the most upside, making his 2nd career start for Linda Rice, who excels with this move; Cyberknife colt looked like one that would appreciate added ground on debuting, finding his best stride late while rallying through traffic; may show more speed with a better start this time. RHYTHM RIOT looks like the one to catch after showing speed in a pair of sprints out of town; has enough pedigree to stretch out and will be dangerous if left alone up front.
Second Race
1. Louden
2. Nevada
3. Dream More
Don’t think we’ve yet seen the best that LOUDEN has to offer; this colt was a mess on debut, getting away awkwardly before eagerly rushing up into traffic, steadying, and throwing in the towel; was more professional last time, but was undone by ground loss; sat 4-wide all the way around the bend, making a nice move to challenge at the 1/4-pole before understandably tiring; should be fitter for his 3rd start, and certainly has the pedigree to suggest the best is yet to come. NEVADA is an expensive auction purchase debuting for Chad Brown; missed some training time during Saratoga, but has gotten back into a steady pattern since; has shown some hints of ability in the mornings and looks cut out for this distance. DREAM MORE had some hype behind him when he was scheduled to make his debut in early August; got scratched with a setback and was forced to miss some time; has been training steadily for this delayed unveiling; $1.5 million son of multiple G1 winner Cavorting is a half-brother to G1 winner Clairiere; should run well, but may not be much price.
Third Race
1. Queen Sally
2. Mermaid
3. Twirly
Perhaps I’m reaching with this top pick, but none of the shorter prices did that much for me; didn’t think the lone turf attempt for QUEEN SALLY was that bad; faced a tougher NY-bred allowance field and stayed on well despite trying to close into a slow pace, with a solid gallop-out; should get a better setup here; her dirt form obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but thought she showed some signs of life last time; don’t mind the progeny of Solomini on grass and suspect this one has further upside on the surface. Among the logical contenders, MERMAID feels like the horse to beat; the chart callers apparently missed the stretch trouble she had last time, as she got steadied out at the 1/8-pole when attempting to move inside; has run her best races at this distance, and has held her own against tougher company than she meets here. TWIRLY has never run a particularly fast race, but she did show some subtle improvement last time and now makes her 2nd start off the claim for an excellent trainer.
Fourth Race
1. Golden Chick
2. Judydancin Tonite
3. Under the Moon
There are a few intriguing firsters in this lineup; the one that I want to bet is GOLDEN CHICK; Bolt d’Oro is a solid 16% debut sire with 2YOs; the dam wasn’t much of a racehorse, but she’s a half-sister to stakes winner Worcester; Brad Cox excels with these types, compiling a 24/93 (26%, $3.25 ROI) record with 2YO firsters at NYRA over the last 5 years; like the steady worktab for this one’s unveiling. JUDYSDANCIN TONITE is a tough read after showing absolutely nothing on debut; appeared to detest the turf, not striding out down the backstretch and then basically getting eased by Prat midway around the turn; has to be better than that, as she had trained reasonably well on dirt leading into her debut. UNDER THE MOON is the logical favorite off a pair of runner-up results in her first couple of starts; was picking up pieces after the winner moved too soon last time, but still stayed on well to secure 2nd; would be no surprise.
Fifth Race
1. Gus’s Boy
2. Coastal Evacuation
3. Summer Brother
GUS’S BOY had shown some ability in the mornings prior to his debut at Saratoga, but ran like a horse who probably needed the race for fitness; was professional early, settling into a stalking position and ranging up menacingly on the far turn; just came up empty when called upon at the 1/4-pole; should have benefited from that start, and now cuts back in distance; his dam was best as a turf sprinter, so this placement makes sense. COASTAL EVACUATION is a NJ-bred by Sea Wizard, who hits at an impressive 20% rate with his turf sprint starters; the dam was a 2-time turf winner who has produced a grass winner, so there’s plenty of pedigree for this one to move up on turf; liked the way he knifed through traffic to get up for 2nd in his dirt debut. SUMMER BROTHER is by Raging Bull, who connects with just 2% of his firsters, but there is plenty of turf on both sides of this pedigree; the worktab looks above average for this level, and Ken McPeek tends to engage Manny Franco only when he’s got a live one.
Sixth Race
1. Ganderella
2. Felixyn
3. Vicked
It’s hard to split the two likely favorites in this state-bred turf route; both GANDERELLA and FELIXYN have had their chances and disappointed at relatively short prices; they both are in great form, securing minor awards in recent starts while just coming up short; the connections of each filly add blinkers for this race, likely in an effort to elicit more early speed and focus; giving the slight preference to Ganderella, who was mildly compromised by getting shuffled back to the 3/16-pole last time, but it’s a close call. VICKED would be a bit more appealing as an alternative if she had a race under her belt off the layoff; has obviously missed some training time since the debut, where she stayed on well after a poor start; is bred for turf and looks like she should handle it; just not sure that this is the day.
Eighth Race
1. War Stride
2. Flat to Da Mat
3. Final Verdict
This feels like a good spot to go price-shopping, as all of the likely favorites have their flaws; WAR STRIDE really hasn’t had a fair chance to show his true ability on turf at any point in his career; showed some promise back in April, but that was coming off a layoff; then found himself buried in traffic to mid-stretch on June 20; most recently he was hung 4-wide all the way around the turn on Sep. 19; is now back at the right distance, and may be in better form than it appears as he gets another shot on grass. FLAT TO DA MAT has to improve a bit to beat this group, but not that much; his form is a little muddled, but he almost always runs well at 6F on turf, especially in NY; missed some time this summer, but returns still not fully exposed and should be a fair price. FINAL VERDICT is a little tough to trust on the win end since he hasn’t crossed the wire first in over 2 years; has still maintained strong form and was mildly unlucky when losing his path between foes in deep stretch last time at Saratoga; the slight stretch-out suits him.
Ninth Race
1. Baby Dancer
2. Naughty Nancy
3. Seismic Activity
Doubt that BABY DANCER was going to win her debut at 73-1, but she certainly would have finished closer to the winner if she hadn’t gotten completely sawed off in traffic when attempting to split horses in mid-stretch; long-striding daughter of War Dancer traveled well into the race and looked full of run before getting jostled repeatedly and losing all her momentum; will be a much shorter price this time, but might actually have some talent based on the evidence of her debut. NAUGHTY NANCY was ambitiously placed against open company first time out at Saratoga; ran like a filly who probably needed the race, staying on mildly late; should appreciate the drop in class and stretch-out in distance; turf is a question, but Essential Quality hits at 15% with his turf route starters. SEISMIC ACTIVITY ran like a horse that’s still learning the ropes last time; was very hard for her rider to handle early, tugging through the first half of the race; still finished with decent energy while no threat; gets a big jockey upgrade to Prat. TWICE THE FUN looks like the one to beat as she, too, drops out of an open company race where she was keen early before staying on; do wonder a bit about the added ground, but the class relief should put her in the mix.
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