Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, September 25 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Sixer (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Sixer
2. Quentin B
3. Elvis Tony
Troubled trip first out, vast improvement second out from SIXER despite cornering into homestretch poorly and failing to change leads. Wore down leader, tagged late by well-meant winner, who ran back with a very decent fourth in the Sam Davis but hasn’t been heard from since. Long layoff, barn change, long string of works – only video is the half-mile from gate Aug. 10, and if he was galloping out that strongly so many works ago, have to think he’s coming into this very well meant. Those were good races last winter at GP from QUENTIN B – and if you thought he was running back to them, much less improving, you’d might well think he wins. I’m not sure. Barn’s numbers with horses like this are not encouraging, but then, the sample is pretty small. Wish we had work video – we don’t. The workout videos for first-timer ELVIS TONY are old – last one Aug. 8 – he had a lot of trouble negotiating the club turn, but looked like he can run, and has had plenty more drills to iron out his cornering.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Friday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Flirtin Again
2. She’s Fascinating
3. Wits and Wagers
Where on earth did FLIRTIN AGAIN’s last-out 12 1/2-length romp with a 72 Beyer come from? That’s the key question in the race, because if the performance was at all real, she’s the most likely winner. I’ll hazard a guess – blinkers off made all the difference to this horse. Her first 11 starts came in blinkers, and their removal coincided with a move to turf. First such race, not much, but her second and third grass races were far better than her previous dirt form. Turns out, though, she is a dirt horse, and a first main-track try sans blinkers was what produced that last-out surprise – or so the theory goes. SHE’S FASCINATING looks like she needs to route to hit her better form, and you can look at the two Fairmount races, first starts after a barn and circuit change, in that context. However, it’s not like she set the world on fire going out to two turns last out – life and death to win a Prairie Meadows $7.5K N2L claimer. Two things – she could go a level better than that race, and she’s got a measure of speed in a race with a real pace void. WITS AND WAGERS at 7-5 or thereabouts – no thanks. Even positing that she couldn’t abide the IND slop last time, the markers are not pointing the right direction.
Second Race
1. Shameless Bride
2. Balaclava
3. Alta Avenue
Modest competition, sure, but two turf sprint wins for SHAMELESS BRIDE to start her career last season. Couldn’t stand up on Tapeta, apparently, and seemingly needed that CNL comeback run. Really liked her last race – quite a troubled trip and leveled off very well, closing quickly, when finally in the clear. Winner of her last is a solid horse, too. I remembered without looking that Kepi was a good Illinois-bred turf miler – I’d forgotten, though, how well she’d run in turf sprints. Her daughter BALACLAVA is a sprinter based on three encouraging races to start her career before a late fade last out in an Ellis 1 1/2-turn mile, and I mentioned the dam’s preferences up top because if B appreciates the dirt-to-turf move she stands a strong chance. Not quite sure what would make ALTA AVENUE a 6-5 favorite, but I suppose that could happen? I don’t consider the 6 1/2-furlong Kentucky Downs race last out especially pertinent to this race, and you’re hanging your hat on that run alone to value her so strongly.
Third Race
1. Tizianna
2. Transatlantic
3. Nut Bush City
TIZIANNA has faced stronger foes than these throughout her career, and has at least come close to “running her race” in all seven of her dirt starts. Nothing at all wrong with her last race, which was for $50K N2L – in fact, she looks better on replay than on the past performance line. Don’t mind the relatively quick turnaround and think class relief does the trick. Can see why they offered TRANSATLANTIC for a $30K tag last out in her fourth start – hadn’t shown great signs of promise, but had shown trouble staying on track and holding form, as evidenced by long gap between first and second starts, and the dud on June 17. Can’t say she doesn’t fit the level, even with the fading third last time – don’t think she wants that mile. The turn-back will suit, and I’d expect a contending race, but rail draw could prove her undoing in the end. NUT BUSH CITY has been exceedingly in and out, but races 1 and 3 fit the spot. Not sure how much blinkers on is supposed to mean – if they were making some huge difference in the morning, doubt she’d be dropped in for $30K.
Fifth Race
1. Unload
2. Prayforpeace
3. Air of Defiance
Realize the evidence is not quite there for UNLOAD on the cut-back, yet I still like it for him under this set of circumstances. Think he showed the trainer something June 26 when turned back to 6 1/2 – if you think he was tailing off at the end of a form cycle, that wasn’t a bad run at all, and the three previous sprints came before Asmussen claimed him back. The horse was a very solid Midwest and Southwest dirt-route stakes performer for Asmussen before declining – in other words, they know him inside and out. Not in for a tag, and might just need a little setup. Two main pace horses appear to be PRAYFORPEACE and AIR OF DEFIANCE. The latter’s the favorite and for whatever reason I’m always against him – just keep thinking he’s this close to losing surprisingly long string of excellent form. Am pretty sure that the 7f clocks in a tick farther than he really wants to run. Meanwhile, Prayforpeace has a 6 1/2-furlong race, a peak for him, back in September 2025, that shows his speed easily carrying beyond the standard 6f. Three strong races from four starts off the $10K claim in February – he’s fresh and drawn outside Air of D.
Sixth Race
1. Fugitive Star
2. Spencerian
3. Tiffany Twist
The D Jacobson has another runner on this card, Sassy Princess, morning-line favorite in R8, who came back from a layoff with a 40-something Beyer at IND, then popped way up at SAR. FUGITIVE STAR did not pop “way up” at SAR, but did improve considerably off the IND comeback run. What I’m getting out of it is Jacobson brought these horses back at IND nowhere near full race fitness – the guess is Fugitive Star has one more level to find third off the layoff. 7f is good for her and at her best she’s good enough for this. Am not quite sure how SPENCERIAN wound up with the ownership change since her last start – those owners generally campaign higher-level horses, and this seems like an odd situation. Theoretically a strong fit for $25K based on the May romp for $32K. Could see no real excuse for the tepid fourth at a similar level last out at CNL, but that came back on Aug. 7. No work video. Low confidence. Since it feels like trainer C Santamaria wins with everything he runs, the easy default answer was TIFFANY TWIST – but sans the Santamaria magic, I’m not so sure. There’s really nothing that makes the horse stand out, and throughout her career it’s been tough coaxing wins out of the horse even when she does fire.
Seventh Race
1. Anywhere With You
2. Tram Mo
3. Qdoro
Flying blind with ANYWHERE WITH YOU since we’ve got zero workout video, but the Turfway pattern looks strong enough, and trainer B Walsh, regularly live with first-timers in turf-route MSWs, has won with his last two such runners. The barn’s “A” rider takes the call, for whatever that’s worth. Dam did little on the track, produced one horse who had good ability. Do have dirt work video for first-timer TRAM MO – I didn’t mind either of them; the more recent looked better, and the filly looked like she’s developing physically. Trainer M Casse has a modest record with 2yo firsters in turf routes but did train this filly’s best sibling (by far), Airoforce. Trainer B Cox has an even stronger record with 2yo firsters in turf routes (21% on an 84-start sample last five years) than Walsh. Cox first-timer QDORO did nearly all the prep work at Ellis, where we have no work video. Dam’s best runner is, ironically, Twirling Aces, trained by Walsh and a dirt horse so far in her career.
Eighth Race
1. Q’s Your Mama
2. Sassy Princess
3. Musical Prayer
Q’S YOUR MAMA put away her dogged pace rival, got passed when Musical Prayer made a big swooping move, but then was coming back on the winner through the final half-furlong – very strong performance that came long enough ago, Aug. 7, she need not regress from it. Note, in that regard, she’s worked five times at TP since her race. The 2-2 CD record came in sloppy-track starts, so don’t quite know what to do with that, but she is drawn outside the other speed and might offer a hint of value with SASSY PRINCESS participating. Sassy Princess obviously badly needed the IND comeback start two back, then ran into a SAR winner who exploded first off the L Rice claim. Do expect her to run her race, and she clearly fits, but 6f is just on the short side for her, and I’ll guess she can’t quite run down Q. MUSICAL PRAYER obviously beat the top pick last time, but got the run of the race in that start – though she might be in for another favorable trip. Asmussen claimed her back and went right into starter competition – a positive sign.
Ninth Race
1. Banksy’s
2. Corona de Oro
3. Aces Honor
BANKSY’S didn’t face any world-beaters in his last two starts, but those races, both wins, marked his first tries on turf, and I’m giving more weight to the horse himself than the competition around him. In turf debut, he leaned in on a rival at the furlong grounds, didn’t really level off until very late, and was going a 9f trip that might have stretched him. At CNL, he’d have jumped on the leaders setting a pretty strong pace earlier had a middle-move into contention not been stymied when B got stuck between horses – and this time, he leveled off beautifully and was eased up the final 50 yards. That middle move and how strongly he was in the bridle at the half-mile pole gives me hope he can stay in touch here with what projects as a mild pace. CORONA DE ORO might set that pace. Evidently, the 5f oval at Charles Town was not for him, and I’m inclined to generally ignore his last race. Previous dirt form would be a strong fit if it transferred across surfaces – sire Bolt d’Oro gets plenty of grass route horses, and while dam about the same on turf and dirt, her only other foal to race, Golden Alchemist (Nyquist) took a leap forward when switched from dirt to turf. ACES HONOR probably should’ve won the Toronto Cup – he got a trip, made the lead, but did not finish things off, and not only did a tougher trip horse slip inside him and win, the seemingly fading leader at the top of the stretch held a close third, too. His advantage here, though, is a touch of positional pace that should get him a favorable run.,
Tenth Race
1. Magic Class
2. Yaira
3. Critikal Sense
Probably my weakest “opinion” on this card – inscrutable full field of $30K maidens. There’s no sample at all for trainer N Vaccarezza with all the stuff going on here with MAGIC CLASS – second-time starter going turf to dirt as well as MSW to MCL. Did not show a lot on debut – other than that she’s not totally hapless. Pedigree, FWIW, leans dirt – can imagine considerable improvement. No record of success with dirt-sprint maiden-claimer firsters for trainer K Danner, but not only is the sample small, all of the starters in it were longshots. Danner-trained first-timer YAIRA, however, is 7-2 on the morning line – and even if not that low, will take some action, one imagines, with presence of Saez and that recent Churchill bullet drill, for which there’s not video. CRITIKAL SENSE makes the same move as Magic Class, only with three races – the last two stronger – behind her.
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