Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, September 12 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Determined Ace (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Determined Ace
2. Draw
3. Kaykay
DETERMINED ACE’s lone start came in a good KEE MSW last fall, and came on a day with some pretty brutal kickback – that she hated. Climbing on the backstretch and didn’t want to run into it, but finally, at the eighth pole, the dirt not flying so hard into her eyes, she made an encouraging run. Worked back several times, pause, then worked again over winter at FG, but in the end she had to wait. Two recent work videos, the second of them quite good; looked like she had a weak hind end last year and has come back a stronger filly. The fast gate work for first-timer DRAW is on video – she went solo and the visual matches the quick time. Galloped out like a horse plenty ready for debut. Rail draw, though. Expected Blum homebred to have passed through a sale but no record of it. Didn’t have first racetrack breeze until this past spring. KAYKAY will be favored for Baffert, one of the premier win-early trainers of all time, and she’s already lost two, giving ground late in both.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other ten races on Saturday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Excel Calculator
2. Military Road
3. Fountain Run
Do we think new trainer J Sharp ran EXCEL CALCULATOR 7f against tougher competition last out at CNL with the sole intent of trying to win that race? Or prepping him for this stretch back to 9f and return to starter-allowance company? Going with the latter, though to be fair, getting 9f is not assured. Second off claim, and all due respect to the former trainer, she’s 3-43 this year while Sharp already has 126 winners. MILITARY ROAD definitely stays 9f and, his dud two back at CD aside, fits neatly into this starter-allowance class. Two light half-miles for first start since July 9 but they say I guess you get horses fit off strong gallops. He has been a little too in-and-out for my taste, however. FOUNTAIN RUN seems a likely clear leader, but I don’t believe he really wants to go quite this far.
Third Race
1. Lightning Run
2. Summer Date
3. Patron Silver
Tough race – one of the more inscrutable on this card, and to further complicate matters, you gotta account for the 1 1/8 miles. Very low confidence opinion. LIGHTNING RUN intended for turf in July start, her lone race, but rained off and ran all right. Does she stay? No idea. But some idea this race has little pace, and she’s either on the lead or tracking just behind a couple longshots and getting first run on the likes of SUMMER DATE and PATRON SILVER. Summer Date might’ve moved early into a solid pace last out at Kentucky Downs, plus – Kentucky Downs, a built-in plausible excuse. Back on short rest, which means … I don’t know. Trouble two back at IND in turf debut. Likely contender if she handles the quick turnaround. PATRON SILVER’s late run theoretically will make more impact at this $50K MCL level than in the MSWs, but I’m not so sure.
Fourth Race
1. Circle Tap
2. Semper Primus
3. Spirit of Royal
My stars, the speed signed onto this heat. It’s inside, middle, and on the far outside, too in Semper Primus, and I don’t see how they don’t go flying down the backstretch and into the turn. CIRCLE TAP can contend in a vacuum and has the perfect style to make a winning run into the enervating pace. SEMPER PRIMUS benefits from being outside all the other pace – possibly. Also could just get hung wide. Not sure I entirely buy the 102 Beyer – but kind of, at least. If the pace shapes as expected, then utterly speed-less one-run closer SPIRIT OF ROYAL could get into the deeper vertical gimmicks at a very long price.
Fifth Race
1. Oblivion
2. Monnie
3. Coach Pope
OBLIVION probably doesn’t have a lot of speed in any case, but leaving awkardly and clipping the gate in his debut left him far back in last. Kickback seemed to affect him, but once he got going past the half-mile pole, he made a long, wide, sustained run that lasted into the gallop out. Almost certainly wants this longer distance, while MONNIE already has been a 1 1/2-turn mile, his debut, and performed creditably. COACH POPE listed at even money. I’d be surprised if he’s higher than 3-5 given the way U. S. S. Valor, whom he defeated in their common debut, won last weekend. Granted, the training track was fast that day, but a 58-second five-furlong workout on Sept. 4 just before shipping? Might that take a toll? Maybe not, and maybe farther is fine, but there’s little to be gained by backing him.
Sixth Race
1. Modo
2. Cash Call
3. Usha
MODO has been trained toward this race for a couple months and has the perfect outside draw to run her best race – and, if you’re buying the 99 Beyer from 3/21, she’s more than fast enough. I’m not quite on board with that, but she doesn’t have to hit that level to win this at, presumably, a fair price. I strongly believed CASH CALL would get a mile last out at Ellis – and was strongly proven wrong. Ran into the excellent Kilwin two back, who’d thump this group, but has a kind of tricky inside draw with some other speed posted just outside her – and she’s not that quick. Rail draw seems an even worse draw for USHA, who is not in good form, seems to prefer 7f, but will take action for Prat / Baffert nonetheless.
Seventh Race
1. Built
2. Harrodsburg
3. Cat On Time
Even if it rains, which is what Harrodsburg to date has needed to hit peak form, I still like BUILT to turn the tables and win this. Think they learned something in June – namely, attack HARRODSBURG earlier in the race if you think you have the better horse. And, on the whole, Built is the better horse. Struggled with the track surface, it really looked like, in his one poor recent showing. Can’t rule out HARRODSBURG though going wire to wire if he gets his track surface. The trainer has aimed him toward this spot since he beat built in the Bango. CAT ON TIME will struggle to get back to his peak level from Aug. 22 facing a higher class of horses here.
Eighth Race
1. Manuka Honey
2. Stripe Show
3. Pierette
Guess I was hoping to see a little more from MANUKA HONEY in her first work back from the Ellis Debutante – maybe her mate, the turf horse Ageeba Beach, is a strong breezer. Don’t know, and don’t know how Manuka Honey went in her two drills after that, but do know she cut out to get one mile and beyond, and looked like a filly with ample upside even romping in her first two races. That said, the longer I looked at this race, the less I thought it was a slam-dunk for the favorite. Trying a price here in STRIPE SHOW, whose narrow win margin in her debut score belies the nature of her performance – namely, she was not asked for much at all, still held off a charging foe, and maintained her edge through the gallop out. I could see her taking a serious forward step here. Saw no obvious excuse for PIERETTE in her tame Saratoga run – maybe she just didn’t like the track, because her CD wins were strong and seemed pretty legit. Not a lot of run-backs out of the Debutante, but two also-rans came back to win. Rail draw no bargain, though.
Ninth Race
1. Splendora
2. Immersive
3. Yes It Tiz
SPLENDORA outclasses this field by a wide margin and stands a decent chance of shaking loose on the lead. I will not belabor her positive attributes – she’s going off at 2-5 and those are obvious for all to see. Will say that recent workout video really seals the deal – she’s looked great. For second – the strong second choice IMMERSIVE, who need only run to her recent form to beat all but the favorite, which I think she’ll do. I’d wager YES IT TIZ is in here as much as anything hoping for a G2 placing. Simply Joking will be scratched, her trainer said this week.
Tenth Race
1. Salahudin
2. Blessed Flyer
3. Antivenom
Stood against SALAHUDIN in his two wins, so now that I’m behind him – well, you know how that can go. Was really struck by the female family – they’re basically all 1 1/2 to 2-mile grass horses. Which makes sense when you have a look at this guy. I didn’t like him first out because seeing his body type and stride, I couldn’t imagine him showing speed – what do I know. Plenty fast enough for sprints and should improve getting out to a mile. And it’s not like you’re getting a big price on the horse most likely to take him down, BLESSED FLYER. He may or may not prove to be more than a one-run sprinter, but did do well to tag an in-form He Is No Lie in the Bashford Manor. Wish there were more recent work video – the trainer says he gallops and works like a horse who can get a mile. And ANTIVENOM, who won a sprint debut, very much looks like a colt to stretch out to middle distances. Been a good long while since he debuted, which means plenty of time for growth and development – did like his finish and gallop out sprinting at Ellis.
Eleventh Race
1. Jill’s Folly’s
2. Sweet Reward
3. Poise
JILL’S FOLLY’S 8/28 gate breeze at KEE is on video, and I saw enough to make me think she could be very live at a fair price in her first start. SWEET REWARD went 6f, 7f, and 1M in her first three starts while racing up on the lead, not far off the pace, and from farther back in the field. In other words, a real work in progress – they’re trying to find what makes her tick. Did pretty well considering rail draw and trip last out. Comes back from a freshening, perhaps a more polished product. POISE the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Can see why – decent numbers, high placings her last two. Seems like she has to go to the front from Post 2, and I wonder if that makes her vulnerable late in this race, as well.
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