Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Wednesday, September 2 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Inclusivity (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Inclusivity
2. George St.
3. Berta’s Stitch
INCLUSIVITY’s debut looked a lot like a prep as he was conservatively ridden from the start before putting in a solid late run that almost got him there; eligible to improve quickly as he ships here to avoid Kentucky Downs. GEORGE ST. made his debut sprinting on dirt, where he stumbled at the start and failed to land a blow as the favorite; interesting stretching right out and switching surfaces with some pedigree. BERTA’S STITCH made a promising debut when putting in a late run and then galloping out well past the wire going short; improved when stretched out for his second start, then didn’t run as well in a tougher race on Whitney Day; likely a better fit here.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other thirteen races on Wednesday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Siennois
2. Mr Percy
3. Smart Uncle
SIENNOIS has impressed while handling weaker in two of his three starts since the recent conversion to jumping; tested for class right away. MR PERCY exits a career-best while winning his prep for this in his first attempt over this distance; logical right back. SMART UNCLE improved up to that Grade 1 victory over course and distance here last month; has managed to put winning efforts together in the past.
Second Race
1. El Grande O
2. Pentathlon
3. Acoustic Ave
EL GRANDE O can be inconsistent, though he owns a top effort that makes him tough in here — see the clear-cut win over two of his main rivals in this spot at Aqueduct two starts back; speed from the rail, but doesn’t need the lead to be effective. PENTATHLON was given a couple of months off following a disappointing effort in the DeFrancis Dash at the end of June; better than that, and this is his best distance. ACOUSTIC AVE and OVER AND OLLIE just ran here 11 days ago, where they battled on the pace before settling for third and second, respectively; both are reliable, and both have speed.
Third Race
1. Protect and Defend
2. Donnadoyawanna
3. Duty
PROTECT AND DEFEND found improved speed and just missed breaking his maiden while earning a field-best turf Beyer of 80 when last seen; finding his way; looks well-spotted here. Thought DONNADOYAWANNA got in a useful debut at the end of last year when gaining late ground in what appeared to be a solid MSW field; had a right to need the first start back, then improved going a marathon distance last time; cuts back a bit with blinkers on. DUTY finished second or third in five straight starts before getting rained off the turf last time, though he was no match for the top one when stretched to this distance two back and put on the lead; tries again.
Fourth Race
1. Senza Parole
2. Strong State
3. Kappa Kappa
SENZA PAROLE was only second-best after sitting a good trip tracking a quick pace going seven last time; also ran well in defeat two back when contesting a wickedly fast Grade 2; the shorter the better. STRONG STATE lacks figure power, but she is a powerful closer, and she loves Saratoga; late threat at a fair price if some pace develops. KAPPA KAPPA used her speed to pull off an upset in a Keeneland Grade 2 last October; suffered her first-ever defeat sprinting on dirt when getting off to a poor start in her return from the layoff this year, then got right back on track when winning her next start easily as a heavy favorite; drops out of a Grade 2, though this isn’t exactly a soft spot.
Fifth Race
1. Twirly
2. Amelia’s Echo
3. Margarita Molly
TWIRLY has run her fastest races on turf, but her lone win to date came over this distance on dirt, and she was in a tougher spot in her lone main track start since; handles dirt and likely a solid fit here. AMELIA’S ECHO required a drop to the bottom to get the overdue maiden win late last year in California; improved out of that race to just miss in her next two starts at Oaklawn, then faced tougher when in as an MTO in her first two New York starts off the claim. MARGARITA MOLLY was in way too tough in her start here back in June; failed to see out the mile when dropped in class a month later, then got wired in her next start and was claimed; tries stretching out again while entered right back at the same level.
Seventh Race
1. Snapper Time
2. Tappin Magic
3. Gold Fashioned
SNAPPER TIME is by new sire Snapper Sinclair, who was versatile enough to compete with graded stakes horses on both dirt and turf during his racing career; the dam posted all three career wins on the grass, and there is plenty of class in this female family; underrated trainer had a debut winner sprinting on turf here last summer at odds of 42-1. TAPPIN MAGIC lost her chance when breaking very poorly from the gate in her debut here three weeks ago; half to the talented turf sprinter Run Curtis Run rates another chance with Prat taking over. GOLD FASHIONED is by new sire Golden Pal (10 debut winners from his first crop as of this writing); the dam won twice on turf, and two of her three foals so far are turf sprint winners.
Eighth Race
1. Grace and Grit
2. Kay Cup
3. Braverthanubelieve
GRACE AND GRIT has run one good race after another since switching to this barn, and has done so over three different distances; was up against it in the first Saratoga start when trying to close over a track that was kind to speed, and she might have come up with her best effiort to date two back when closing strongly into a quick pace over this track and trip; might have a better setup here after getting wired last time. KAY CUP was entered to face GRACE AND GRIT last month before being listed as a vet scratch. She won her first two starts as a 3-year-old with Beyers of 84 and 86, including a win in the Bouwerie on this track, then tried to stretch out with mixed results; landed in a couple of tough races when turned back last December, and actually ran well both times without winning; dangerous if ready off the layoff. BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE got off to a late start as a 2-year-old, but she made up for lost time when winning both starts at the end of the year, including a $500,000 stallion series race; has switched barns during the time away, but appears to be training forwardly on the way back.
Ninth Race
1. Overseer
2. T V Channel
3. Free Refills
OVERSEER sat a good trip before taking over in the stretch and then gamely denying one of the favorites to pull off an upset in the maiden win before the layoff; was likely prepping in the sprint return when sitting wide and finishing evenly; stretches back out for an underrated trainer. T V CHANNEL dropped sharply in class and raced loose on a rated pace before fighting back to break her maiden in her first start for Jacobson, who has been sending out nothing but live runners over the last couple of weeks; must respect. FREE REFILLS is more pace-dependent than the top two, but his recent form doesn’t leave him much to find, and he is dropping in class for this.
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