Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the 1 1/4-mile classic at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
The 152nd Run for the Roses goes Saturday at 6:57 p.m. Eastern from Churchill Downs, with a 20-horse field signed on for the $5 million purse. Aragona and Beer split on top in a field they regard as deep but lacking a clear standout. Aragona pegs No. 6 Commandment as his pick to win, while Beer goes for a longer price with No. 14 Potente.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 6 Commandment
Commandment, trained by Brad Cox, comes in off a victory in the Florida Derby, where he ran down a pair of rivals into a slow pace, and is unbeaten in 2026.
“He’s the one that I rely on to show up and get the trip that he needs,” Aragona said. “I think he’s going to appreciate the mile-and-a-quarter distance.”
Beer also has Commandment in his selections, third behind his top pick, and offered the strongest endorsement of any horse in the field.
“I trust Commandment way more than I trust anybody else in this field,” Beer said.
Beer’s top pick: No. 14 Potente
Potente, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez, ran second in the Santa Anita Derby last time after getting hooked on the lead with Robusta. Beer believes a different trip is coming.
“I think they’re going to ride him differently in here and I think he’s going to move forward,” Beer said. He cited the colt’s San Felipe runner-up as the trip he envisions in the Derby – sitting behind horses, comfortable, then making one run.
Aragona did not include Potente in his selections.
The favorite: No. 1 Renegade
No. 1 Renegade, the 4-1 morning-line favorite trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., drew the rail and comes off a visually impressive Arkansas Derby score. Aragona has him third, conceding talent but flagging the price.
“I worry he might not be value,” Aragona said. “Not as worried about the rail, just the price he might be.” He noted that the 20-horse start gate introduced in 2020 has produced relatively clean trips from post 1.
Beer left Renegade out of his selections entirely, opting to chase better prices.
The rest of the picks
No. 9 The Puma, trained by Gustavo Delgado, sits second for Aragona after running second to Commandment in the Florida Derby. Aragona credited the colt for fast figures and improvement from start to start.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 6 Commandment
No. 9 The Puma
No. 1 Renegade
No. 8 So Happy
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 14 Potente
No. 13 Silent Tactic (Scratched)
No. 6 Commandment
No. 18 Further Ado
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
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