Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday July 3

27
 

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB action…

 

2:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-120, 9) 

This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Astros (46-38) have won two of the first three games, winning 5-3 on Sunday as +125 road dogs. In today’s series finale, the Astros hand the ball to righty Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.72 ERA) and the Rangers (50-34) send out lefty Martin Perez (7-3, 4.28 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have jumped on the Rangers to earn the series split, driving Texas up from -105 to -120. The Rangers are receiving roughly 60% of bets and dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. Monday home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 23-13 (64%) this season. Texas has a big edge at the plate, hitting .274 vs .248 for Houston. The Rangers also have the fresher bullpen, tossing 9 innings over the past three games compared to 13 innings for the Astros. Javier has a 5.79 ERA in five June starts. Javier has a 4.40 ERA on the road compared to 3.00 at home. Perez has an ERA of 3.99 in five June starts. Perez has a 1.91 ERA at home compared to 5.98 on the road. 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-125, 8) 

The Cardinals (35-48) just took two of three against the Yankees, winning Sunday’s series finale 5-1 as -110 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (48-37) just got swept at the Braves, losing 6-3 yesterday at +190 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals start righty Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.44 ERA) and the Marlins counter with lefty Braxton Garrett (4-2, 3.53 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -115 home favorite and St. Louis a -105 road dog. Pros have pounced on the Fish to get back on track, steaming Miami up from -115 to -125. The Marlins are receiving 68% of bets and 80% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 171-106 (62%) this season. The Marlins have the better bats (hitting .260 vs .252) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.07 vs 4.52). Miami is 25-12 as a favorite, 39-27 against righties and 25-15 at home. St. Louis is 14-18 as a dog, 9-11 against lefties and 18-23 on the road. The Marlins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team.