Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB action…
2:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-120, 9)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Astros (46-38) have won two of the first three games, winning 5-3 on Sunday as +125 road dogs. In today’s series finale, the Astros hand the ball to righty Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.72 ERA) and the Rangers (50-34) send out lefty Martin Perez (7-3, 4.28 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have jumped on the Rangers to earn the series split, driving Texas up from -105 to -120. The Rangers are receiving roughly 60% of bets and dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action. Monday home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 23-13 (64%) this season. Texas has a big edge at the plate, hitting .274 vs .248 for Houston. The Rangers also have the fresher bullpen, tossing 9 innings over the past three games compared to 13 innings for the Astros. Javier has a 5.79 ERA in five June starts. Javier has a 4.40 ERA on the road compared to 3.00 at home. Perez has an ERA of 3.99 in five June starts. Perez has a 1.91 ERA at home compared to 5.98 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-125, 8)
The Cardinals (35-48) just took two of three against the Yankees, winning Sunday’s series finale 5-1 as -110 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (48-37) just got swept at the Braves, losing 6-3 yesterday at +190 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals start righty Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.44 ERA) and the Marlins counter with lefty Braxton Garrett (4-2, 3.53 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -115 home favorite and St. Louis a -105 road dog. Pros have pounced on the Fish to get back on track, steaming Miami up from -115 to -125. The Marlins are receiving 68% of bets and 80% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Non-division home favorites receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 171-106 (62%) this season. The Marlins have the better bats (hitting .260 vs .252) and superior pitching (team ERA 4.07 vs 4.52). Miami is 25-12 as a favorite, 39-27 against righties and 25-15 at home. St. Louis is 14-18 as a dog, 9-11 against lefties and 18-23 on the road. The Marlins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team.
