Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Monday June 5

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every games using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB slate…

 

7:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 10)

The Astros (35-24) just took three of four at home against the Angels but lost Sunday’s series finale 2-1 as -150 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays (33-27) just swept the Mets on the road, winning 6-4 yesterday as +120 dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Astros start righty Brandon Bielak (2-2, 3.19 ERA) and the Blue Jays send out fellow righty Alek Manoah (1-6, 5.46 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -135 home favorite and Houston a +120 road dog. Pros have jumped on the Astros getting plus money, dropping Houston from +120 to +115. The Astros are receiving 60% of bets but 75% of money, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action. The Astros are 9-5 as a dog this season. Houston has additional value as a dog in a high total game (10), as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 9.5 to 10. The over is getting 45% of bets but 79% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. Manoah posted a 6.15 ERA in May. The Jays went 0-6 in those games. Manoah has a 6.83 ERA at home compared to 4.20 on the road. Houston is 6-3 to the over in their last nine games.

 

8:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers (-130, 9.5)

The Cardinals (25-35) just got swept at the Pirates, losing 2-1 on Sunday as -150 road favorites. On the flip side, the Rangers (38-20) just swept the Mariners at home, winning 12-3 on Sunday as -160 favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals tap righty Adam Wainwright (2-1, 6.15 ERA) and the Rangers counter with lefty Martin Perez (6-1, 4.43 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -125 home favorite and St. Louis a +115 road dog. Pros have pounced on the red-hot Rangers laying short chalk at home, steaming Texas up from -125 to -130. The Rangers are receiving 76% of bets and 88% of money, a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 96-47 (67%) this season. Home favorites off a blowout win of 9-runs of more are 17-9 (65%). Texas has a big edge at the plate (hitting .278 vs .252) and on the mound (team ERA 3.65 vs 4.28). The Rangers are 23-10 as a favorite, 27-14 against righties and 19-8 at home. The total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 10. The over is receiving 65% of bets but 94% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. The Rangers are 10-2 to the over in their last 12 home games.