Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Tuesday May 16


Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 


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You can also track the latest odds and percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday’s MLB action…


7:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-155, 9.5) at Boston Red Sox

The Mariners (21-20) took Monday night’s series opener 10-1, cruising as -125 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, Seattle sends out righty Luis Castillo (2-1, 2.70 ERA) while the Red Sox (22-20) turn to fellow righty Nick Pivetta (2-3, 6.23 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -145 road favorite and the Red Sox a +130 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Mariners to post another win at Fenway, driving Seattle up from -145 to -155. Non-division road favorites are 100-62 (62%) this season. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous year playing an opponent who did not are 77-45 (63%). Non-division favorites off a win are 147-81 (65%). Sharps are also leaning over, as the total has risen from 9 to 9.5 and the over is still being juiced to -115. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. The Red Sox are 27-13-2 to the over this season, tops in MLB. The over is receiving 53% of bets but 70% of dollars, a sharp over discrepancy. 


7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-175, 8)

The Cardinals (17-25) are 7-1 over their last eight games, winning last night’s series opener 18-1 as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers (23-18) hand the ball to lefty Wade Miley (3-2, 3.60 ERA) while St. Louis counters with fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery (2-5, 4.11 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -165 home favorite and the Brewers a +145 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand at home, steaming the Cardinals up from -165 to -175. Favorites coming off a blowout win of 9-runs or more (momentum theory) are 21-7 (75%) this season. The Cardinals will lean on their advantage at the plate, hitting .260 compared to .241 for Milwaukee. St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Cardinals also have the fresher bullpen, throwing 8.2 innings over the last three games compared to 13 innings for the Brewers.