Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks Today April 11, 2023

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Tuesday’s MLB action…

 

6:35 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (-190, 8)

The Orioles (5-5) took Monday night’s series opener 5-1, cruising as -180 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (2-8) start lefty Kyle Muller (0-0, 2.53) while Baltimore counters with rookie stud righty Grayson Rodriguez (0-0, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -175 home favorite and the Athletics a +150 road dog. Pros have laid the juice with Baltimore, steaming the Orioles up from -175 to -190. Baltimore holds the edge at the plate (.236 vs .198) and on the mound (4.83 ERA vs 7.36 ERA). The Athletics have lost five straight, are 0-4 on the road and own the worst run differential (-49) in baseball. Sharps have also leaned over, as the total is 8 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 8.5. Overs are 85-65 (57%) this season. The forecast calls for high 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. Oakland is 6-3-1 to the over and Baltimore is 6-4 to the over. Rodriguez is +900 win the AL Rookie of the Year, the 4th best odds overall. 

 

9:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-155, 8) at San Francisco Giants 

The Dodgers (6-5) rolled in last night’s series opener 9-1, cashing as -160 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, Los Angeles turns to righty Dustin May (1-0, 0.69 ERA) and San Francisco (4-6) taps lefty Alex Wood (0-0, 3.00 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -145 road favorite and the Giants a +125 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming Los Angeles up from -145 to -155. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 285-175 (62%) since 2022. The Dodgers are 76-37 (67%) against lefties since 2020. Los Angeles has the better offense, scoring 69 runs compared to 48 for San Francisco. The total is 8 with the over juiced to -120, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 8.5. When the total stays the same or rises, the over is 60-45 (57%). The forecast calls for mid 50s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to right center. Currently 60% of bets but 70% of money is on the over, a sharp bet discrepancy.