MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for April 7:
The MLB Bullpen Systems I’ve been tracking for VSiN readers in recent seasons have started up once again for the 2025 season and to characterize the early results, they have been “meh.” Not a whole lot of profit or loss either way. Interestingly, we have already seen some dramatic moves up and down on my overall league bullpen rankings, as some expected weaker bullpens are off to great starts and vice versa. The bullpens off to noticeably great starts include teams like the Mets, Tigers, and Houston, plus the three elite teams so far from the NL West (LAD, SD, SF). At the same time, bullpens that have struggled to start the season include the Cubs, Colorado, and Washington.
I will be trying to keep up the regular full updates on the bullpen systems for the next six months. However, recognize that you can get the continuously updated and qualified bullpen systems, plus MUCH more on our daily MLB Analytics Reports for the entire season.
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Just a reminder before we dig into the updated results of the regular season. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
At one point in the 2023 season, I was asked by readers…What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there are more profitable ways (by ROI), as shown by the drill-down systems below, but the easiest method I have now detailed is in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. In the 2023 season, by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units. It lost about twice that last season, so we’re hoping for a bounceback year in 2025. Even with those losing numbers, it represented about half the loss the average MLB bettor betting every MLB game would have endured, as the usual ROI of this method is around -4.4%.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 4/6:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system:
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 71-59 for +4.11 units and a ROI of 3.2% so far in the regular season. This is right around the 2023 season standards. Furthermore, for those blindly playing nearly every game on the board, it remains a very advantageous strategy, as the average bettor playing every MLB game for the season theoretically would have lost about -7.23 units.
Even considering the decent start above, narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report daily. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems. I am still playing these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams are off to an unusually good start, 5-1 for +2.42 units. However, that can still be just a single loss from going negative.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a huge start, 7-1 for +5.02 units, a ROI of 62.8%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are slightly positive, 6-2 for +1.44 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 19-33 for -11.7 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have been a blemish on our overall good start, as they are 17-29 for -10.9 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 18-8 for +11.03 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (11-5, +5.9 units) are uncharacteristic.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 13-8 for +3.82 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is nearly dead even so far, 6-5 for -.07 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 4/6)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. NY METS: 1.29
2. SAN DIEGO: 1.66
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.75
4. LA DODGERS: 2.24
5. HOUSTON: 2.27
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 6.98
29. MILWAUKEE: 6.92
28. WASHINGTON: 6.46
27. ATHLETICS: 6.4
26. TORONTO: 5.61
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. DETROIT: 0.81
2. TAMPA BAY: 0.9
3. NY METS: 0.94
4. SAN DIEGO: 0.95
5. LA DODGERS: 0.97
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.85
29. WASHINGTON: 1.83
28. COLORADO: 1.79
27. LA ANGELS: 1.73
26. ATHLETICS: 1.71
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 12.11
2. NY YANKEES: 11.71
3. ATHLETICS: 11.37
4. TAMPA BAY: 11.06
5. CHI WHITE SOX: 10.98
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. MIAMI: 6.47
29. CHICAGO CUBS: 6.56
28. WASHINGTON: 6.75
27. CINCINNATI: 7.12
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.22
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. DETROIT: 0.78
2. LA DODGERS: 0.84
3. TAMPA BAY: 0.92
4. HOUSTON: 0.95
5. ARIZONA: 0.96
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.86
29. ATHLETICS: 1.79
28. COLORADO: 1.78
27. LA ANGELS: 1.69
26. ST LOUIS: 1.63
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number reflects the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 3/31:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. NY METS: +7 points
2. DETROIT: +6
2. ARIZONA: +6
2. HOUSTON: +6
5. KANSAS CITY: +5
5. LA DODGERS: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ST LOUIS: -9 points
2. ATHLETICS: -8
3. BOSTON: -4
3. LA ANGELS: -4
3. PITTSBURGH: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/9)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. LA DODGERS: 30
2. NY METS: 21
3. MINNESOTA: 21
4. CLEVELAND: 20
5. NY YANKEES: 19
6. SAN DIEGO: 18
7. ATLANTA: 16
8. SAN FRANCISCO: 16
9. PHILADELPHIA: 15
10. HOUSTON: 14
11. ARIZONA: 14
12. BALTIMORE: 13
13. SEATTLE: 13
14. DETROIT: 13
15. TORONTO: 8
16. MILWAUKEE: 7
17. TEXAS: 6
18. TAMPA BAY: 3
19. KANSAS CITY: 1
20. MIAMI: 1
21. CHICAGO CUBS: -2
22. ST LOUIS: -3
23. LA ANGELS: -3
24. BOSTON: -4
25. ATHLETICS: -4
26. CINCINNATI: -6
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -8
28. PITTSBURGH: -10
29. WASHINGTON: -15
30. COLORADO: -17
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating. Not surprisingly, all of the top seven rated bullpen teams are playoff bound.
As we head into this week’s games, there are five teams on a 3+ game winning streak (BOS, DET, TEX, NYM, SF) and five teams on a 3+ game losing skids (TOR, TB, CWS, SEA, STL).
