This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
Top MLB Resources:
1. MIL – Corbin Burnes (No. 2 out of 349)
2. LAD – Clayton Kershaw (No. 9)
3. CWS – Lance Lynn (No. 16)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. CHC – Adrian Sampson (No. 341 out of 349)
2. STL – Jon Lester (No. 334)
3. BAL – Chris Ellis (No. 330)
Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires
1. NYY at BOS – Ron Kulpa (No. 2 out of 111)
2. TOR at MIN – Roberto Ortiz (No. 3)
3. TEX at BAL – Ben May (No. 9)
Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires
1. SEA at LAA – Alan Porter (No. 17 out of 111)
2. NYM at MIL – Bill Welke (No. 32)
3. PIT at PHI – Jordan Baker (No. 33)
Today's Hottest Games
1. SF at COL (87 degrees)
2. LAD at ARI (82 degrees)
3. PIT at PHI (74 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. HOU at OAK (61 degrees)
2. KC at DET (64 degrees)
3. NYM at MIL (64 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· San Francisco Giants
Projected: 6.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O %plussign% 110
· New York Yankees
Projected: 5.72 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -130
· Boston Red Sox
Projected: 5.49 runs | Vegas O/U: 4.5 O -125
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected: 3.16 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O %plussign% 125
· New York Mets
Projected: 3.27 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -130
· Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected: 3.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O %plussign% 120
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Giants at Rockies
Projected: 11.71 runs | Vegas O/U: 11.5 O -115
· Yankees at Red Sox
Projected: 11.21 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.5 O -105
· Nationals at Reds
Projected: 9.90 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O -105
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Marlins at Rays
Projected: 7.48 runs
· Astros at Athletics
Projected: 7.53 runs
· Mets at Brewers
Projected: 7.56 runs
GAMES OF THE DAY
Chicago Cubs (67-87) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (85-69)
O/U: | CHC %plussign% 140 | STL -160
Adrian Sampson (THE BAT's No. 341 SP) vs. Jon Lester (THE BAT's No. 334 SP)
Wrigley Field (No. 7 Runs | No. 17 HR | No. 20 K)
65 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)
12 mph across the field
DATA NUGGETS
· Adrian Sampson may not have a normal starter's workload today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 3 pitches
· Adrian Sampson's 2.84 ERA is 2.88 points better than his 5.73 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season
· This season, Jon Lester's fastball (88.2 mph) has been nearly a full mph slower than it was in 2020
· The Cubs are the No. 2 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K PERCENTAGE of 27.0 percent according to THE BAT X
· The projected lineup for the Cubs holds three extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Patrick Wisdom, Trayce Thompson, Adrian Sampson. THE BAT projects all for a Patrick Wisdom, Trayce Thompson, Adrian Sampson%plussign% underlying K PERCENTAGE
· THE BAT X views the Cubs as the No. 3 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward
· According to THE BAT X, the Cardinals and their 0.309 wOBA have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in 2021
· The Cardinals offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)
BETTING INSIGHTS
· There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 85 percent of the bet tickets and 54 percent of the cash is on the Cardinals
· The St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-68 resulting in %plussign% 7.20 Units (4 percent ROI)
· The Chicago Cubs Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 79-66 resulting in %plussign% 2.34 Units (1 percent ROI)
· The most popular prop for the game is Paul Goldschmidt's Home Runs Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (%plussign% 215/-325)
Oakland Athletics (83-71) vs. Houston Astros (91-63)
O/U: | OAK %plussign% 105 | HOU -125
Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 26 SP) vs. Framber Valdez (THE BAT's No. 23 SP)
Vic Carapazza (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 25 in MLB)
Oakland Coliseum (No. 30 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)
61 degrees (No. 1 coldest today)
8 mph out to RF (No. 3 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Sean Manaea's fastball (91.6 mph) is 1.9 mph faster than it was in 2020
· Sean Manaea has been throwing a fastball (54 percent increase) far less often in 2021 (0 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (54 percent usage)
· Sean Manaea is throwing a sinker 60 percent more often this season (60 percent usage) than he did last season (0 percent usage)
· Ground ball pitchers tend to perform better against Ground ball hitters, and Framber Valdez (65 percent GB percent since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
· So far in 2021, Framber Valdez has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 3.07 ERA despite a 3.92 FIP
· The Athletics are the No. 4 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K PERCENTAGE of 21.1 percent according to THE BAT X
· THE BAT X views the Athletics as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward
· The Athletics offense knows how to optimize their launch angles for home runs; they have the No. 1 (tie) most players in MLB with a HR Zone Launch Angle in the 75th percentile or better this year (Matt Chapman, Josh Harrison, Tony Kemp, Jed Lowrie)
· The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K PERCENTAGE of 19.0 percent according to THE BAT X
· According to THE BAT X, the Astros and their 0.338 wOBA have been the No. 2 luckiest offense in 2021
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 90 percent of the bet tickets and 89 percent of the cash on the Astros
· The Houston Astros Game Total Over has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-62 resulting in %plussign% 11.95 Units (7 percent ROI)
· This season the Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 78-75 resulting in %plussign% 5.75 Units (3 percent ROI)
· The most popular prop for the game is Framber Valdez's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (%plussign% 110/-145)
Tampa Bay Rays (95-59) vs. Miami Marlins (64-89)
O/U: | TB -210 | MIA %plussign% 175
Shane McClanahan (THE BAT's No. 76 SP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (THE BAT's No. 22 SP)
Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)
72 degrees (No. 5 hottest today)
Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Shane McClanahan may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 3 pitches
· Shane McClanahan is projected to face six opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split
· Sandy Alcantara has been throwing a sinker (11 percent increase) far less often in 2021 (28 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (39 percent usage)
· Sandy Alcantara has been throwing a changeup (14 percent increase) far more often in 2021 (24 percent usage) than he did in 2020 (10 percent usage)
· Sandy Alcantara's 3.05 ERA may be overstating how good he actually is, compared to his 3.57 projected ERA from THE BAT
· The Rays (0.320 wOBA) have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X
· Tampa Bay boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle percent this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Austin Meadows, Mike Zunino, Brett Phillips, Brandon Lowe)
· The Marlins are the No. 5 most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K PERCENTAGE of 25.2 percent according to THE BAT X
· According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.293 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 91 percent of the bet tickets and 79 percent of the cash on the Rays
· There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 81 percent of the cash and 60 percent of the bet tickets is on the UNDER
· This season the Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 86-62 resulting in %plussign% 20.70 Units (11 percent ROI)
· The Miami Marlins Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 79-68 resulting in %plussign% 2.15 Units (1 percent ROI)
· Sandy Alcantara's Strikeouts Prop is priced at Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120) is the most popular prop for the game
