MLB daily notes: Betting preview for Wednesday’s games

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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.

Today's Best Starting Pitchers

 

1. PHI – Zack Wheeler (No. 4 out of 348)
2. BOS – Chris Sale (No. 8)
3. CIN – Luis Castillo (No. 17)

Today's Worst Starting Pitchers

1. CLE – Logan Allen (No. 332 out of 348)
2. LAA – Janson Junk (No. 324)
3. PIT – Connor Overton (No. 316)

Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires

1. WSH at MIA – Bill Miller (No. 5 out of 111)
2. TEX at NYY – Jeremie Rehak (No. 12)
3. NYM at BOS – Mark Ripperger (No. 32)

Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires

1. ATL at ARI – Shane Livensparger (No. 6 out of 111)
2. LAD at COL – Jerry Meals (No. 15)
3. SEA at OAK – Greg Gibson (No. 26)

Today's Hottest Games

1. ATL at ARI (85 degrees)
2. HOU at LAA (82 degrees)
3. LAD at COL (77 degrees)

Today's Coldest Games

1. PIT at CIN (59 degrees)
2. STL at MIL (59 degrees)
3. MIN at CHC (60 degrees)

THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals

·  Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected: 6.66 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O %plussign% 105

·  New York Yankees
Projected: 5.86 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O %plussign% 105

·  Houston Astros
Projected: 5.79 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals

·  Chicago Cubs
Projected: 2.53 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O %plussign% 115

·  Baltimore Orioles
Projected: 3.01 runs | Vegas O/U: 2.5 O -125

·  Minnesota Twins
Projected: 3.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O -105

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THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals

·  Dodgers at Rockies
Projected: 11.52 runs

·  Astros at Angels
Projected: 10.27 runs

·  Rangers at Yankees
Projected: 9.96 runs

THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals

·  Twins at Cubs
Projected: 5.55 runs

·  Nationals at Marlins
Projected: 7.04 runs

·  Orioles at Phillies
Projected: 7.85 runs

GAMES OF THE DAY

Cleveland Indians (74-76) vs. Kansas City Royals (69-83)

O/U: 9 | CLE -105 | KC -115

Logan Allen (THE BAT's No. 332 SP) vs. Carlos Hernandez (THE BAT's No. 204 SP)

Adrian Johnson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 31 in MLB)

Progressive Field (No. 8 Runs | No. 13 HR | No. 17 K)

67 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)

16 mph in from CF (No. 2 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Carlos Hernandez and his 3.91 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 4.66 thus far in 2021

·  The Indians (27.0 K percent, via THE BAT X) have the No. 3 most strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The projected lineup for the Indians holds four extremely strikeout-prone bats today: Bradley Zimmer, Roberto Perez, Bobby Bradley, Franmil Reyes. 

·  Cleveland boasts four active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity percent this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB (Franmil Reyes, Harold Ramirez, Bradley Zimmer, Jose Ramirez)

·  The Royals (21.0 K percent, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today

·  The Royals' 0.303 team wOBA makes them the No. 6 largest underperformer this season, according to THE BAT X projections

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 68 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash on the Royals

·  The Cleveland Indians Run Line has been their most profitable market this season and is 80-68 resulting in %plussign% 8.60 Units (5 percent ROI)

·  This season the Royals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 74-61 resulting in %plussign% 7.45 Units (5 percent ROI)

·  Jose Ramirez's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (%plussign% 360/-710)

Colorado Rockies (70-80) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (97-54)

O/U: 10.5 | COL %plussign% 170 | LAD -200

German Marquez (THE BAT's No. 47 SP) vs. Walker Buehler (THE BAT's No. 20 SP)

Jerry Meals (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 15 in MLB)

Coors Field (No. 1 Runs | No. 11 HR | No. 30 K)

77 degrees (No. 3 hottest today)

4 mph across the field

DATA NUGGETS

·  German Marquez (94.3 mph) has lost 1.0 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  German Marquez's spin rate (2078 rpm) has decreased by nearly 100 rpm in 2021

·  German Marquez is throwing a slider 11 percent more often this season (28 percent usage) than he did last season (17 percent usage)

·  Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and German Marquez (51 percent GB percent since 2019) is projected to face three of them today

·  Walker Buehler (94.8 mph) has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball so far in 2021

·  Walker Buehler is throwing a fastball 12 percent less often this season (44 percent usage) than he did last season (56 percent usage)

·  Walker Buehler and his 2.39 ERA have been overperforming THE BAT's projected talent level of 3.48 thus far in 2021

·  The Colorado Rockies' 26.1 projected K percent (via THE BAT) is the No. 4 most on today's slate of games

·  The Rockies have been underperforming thus far in 2021, with THE BAT X viewing them as the No. 2 unluckiest offense and projecting an increase on their 0.315 wOBA going forward

·  The Rockies have four players (Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, Trevor Story, Yonathan Daza) with a Sprint Speed in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB

·  THE BAT X projects the Dodgers (No. 1 most underperforming offense in MLB) as a much better squad than they've performed like (0.324 wOBA) thus far in 2021

·  The Dodgers offense knows how to barrel a baseball; they have the No. 4 (tie) most players in MLB with a Barrel percent in the 75th percentile or better this year (Max Muncy, Will Smith, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor)

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  There is lopsided action on the Run Line as 87 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash is on the Dodgers

·  The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 90 percent of the bet tickets and 89 percent of the cash on the Dodgers

·  The Colorado Rockies Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 81-61 resulting in %plussign% 12.95 Units (8 percent ROI)

·  This season the Dodgers Game Total Under has been their most profitable market and is 75-63 resulting in %plussign% 6.10 Units (4 percent ROI)

·  Mookie Betts' Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (%plussign% 285/-495) is the most popular prop for the game

Los Angeles Angels (72-79) vs. Houston Astros (90-61)

O/U: 9 | LAA %plussign% 175 | HOU -210

Janson Junk (THE BAT's No. 324 SP) vs. Luis Garcia (THE BAT's No. 83 SP)

Chad Whitson (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 43 in MLB)

Angel Stadium (No. 17 Runs | No. 10 HR | No. 9 K)

82 degrees (No. 2 hottest today)

7 mph out to RF (No. 5 strongest winds today)

DATA NUGGETS

·  Janson Junk may be on a pitch count today, with THE BAT projecting a max of roughly 4 pitches

·  Janson Junk has a reverse platoon split, making him less effective against same-handed hitters, which he's projected to face six of today

·  Janson Junk's 2.25 ERA is 5.20 points better than his 7.45 FIP, making him one of the luckier pitchers in MLB this season

·  THE BAT X views the Angels as the No. 6 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

·  The Astros are the least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K percent of 20.4 percent according to THE BAT X

·  THE BAT X views the Astros as the No. 2 most overperforming offense of 2021 and expects negative regression going forward

BETTING INSIGHTS

·  The Moneyline has the most lopsided action today with 96 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash on the Astros

·  The Astros Run Line has 94 percent of the bet tickets and 98 percent of the cash making it the most lopsided action on the slate

·  The most profitable market for the Houston Astros has been their Game Total Over which is 80-61 generating %plussign% 13.10 Units (8 percent ROI)

·  The most profitable market for the Los Angeles Angels has been their Game Total Over which is 76-65 generating %plussign% 3.75 Units (2 percent ROI)

·  Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs Prop is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (%plussign% 250/-400) is the most popular prop for the game

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