First Five Inning Best Bets for Thursday, March 28th
Welcome to my biweekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
Betting the first five innings is a way to simplify the handicap. The bullpens should have very little impact, and starting pitchers dominate the analysis. The randomness of relief pitchers altering the outcome is all but eliminated, which makes me feel more secure in the handicap.
Top MLB Resources:
This article will be my way of working my baseball handicapping muscles for the first time over the course of a whole season. Handicapping a moneyline sport such as this presents unique challenges, and I look forward to experiencing those in this column.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.Â
MLB Betting Resources
MLB Odds | Makinen’s MLB Power Ratings | First 5 Innings Analyzer
First Five Inning Best Bets
Washington Nationals (+136) at Cincinnati Reds (-162) | Total: 9 (UN -115)
Josiah Gray vs Frankie Montas
Josiah Gray is a solid candidate to play against in the early portion of the season. Gray’s initial numbers from 2023 look great. He threw 159.0 innings and posted a 3.91 ERA and cut down on the home run issues he was having in 2022. However, his FIP (4.93) and xERA (5.03) would indicate that he was playing with fire.
Of note is Gray’s command issues. He walked 11.5% of the total batters he faced. His WHIP of 1.46 was below average as well, and these issues have persisted into spring training. In 16.1 innings of work Gray had a 15.9% walk rate and a 1.96 WHIP. It would seem that command will be an issue that works against him, and Cincinnati will punish him for this.
The Reds were a decent team last season when it came to plate discipline. They ranked 10th in walk rate (9.0%) and fourth in outside-zone swing rate (29.4%). Gray is a pitcher that primarily works out of the zone. Only 38.9% of his pitches were inside the zone last season; a number right in line with his career mark (38.8%).
Admittedly, Frankie Montas is still an unknown on the other side. Montas had an awful spring training in which he gave up five home runs in 16.2 innings of work. We also haven’t seen a large workload from Montas since 2022 when he pitched 144.1 innings between Oakland and New York. His time as a Yankee was especially troubling, as he posted a 4.90 FIP in 41.0 innings over two seasons.
But, Montas should be able to perform well against this weak Nationals lineup. Washington was 23rd in both runs per game (4.32) and wOBA (.309). It failed to produce fly balls at a high rate, and it faces a pitcher whose arsenal should work well in a park like Great American. Let’s roll with Cincinnati to get things done early here.
Bet Recommendation: Reds -0.5 F5 (-120)
Detroit Tigers (-166) at Chicago White Sox (+140) | Total: 8 (OV -110)
Tarik Skubal vs Garrett Crochet
Garrett Crochet is making the first start of his MLB career on Opening Day. Crochet has served primarily as a reliever, with 72 relief appearances in his career. He has pitched just 12.2 innings since 2021 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. Suffice to say, this is going to be a very short outing for Crochet, despite the words being said about his role. In fact, his last spring start lasted only 31 pitches.
Crochet also showed some signs of a pitcher who was getting lucky in a small sample size last season. In 12.2 innings of work he posted a 3.55 ERA, but his 5.70 FIP suggests some regression would hit at some point. He has consistently struggled with command in his time in the majors. He owns a career walk rate of 12.7% and walked 20.3% of the batters he faced last season. Already expected to have a short stint, we could see Crochet get pulled very early here if the command issues persist.
Detroit also hit very well in spring training. It was fifth in home runs (45), sixth in total walks (126) and eighth in OPS (.777). The patience the Tigers showed will be especially helpful against Crochet in this contest. We also get the benefit of having Tarik Skubal on our side. Skubal is a preseason Cy Young candidate who posted a 2.80 ERA and 2.00 FIP in 80.1 innings last season.Â
Bet Recommendation: Tigers -0.5 F5 (-115)