Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 17, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-112 at MIL), TEXAS (+120 at DET), BOSTON (-142 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-250 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-142 at HOU), FADE ST LOUIS (-155 at OAK), FADE CINCINNATI (+114 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in TEX-DET, PLAY UNDER in CIN-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE NY METS (-142 vs PIT), FADE ARIZONA (-122 vs CHC), FADE BOSTON (-142 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, TEXAS, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY GAME 1, NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return. Considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, KANSAS CITY GAME 1 RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units. As shown before, with the -.08 unit return, results picked up last week, as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, NY METS, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY GAME 1
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 13-4 for +4.94 units.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-250 vs WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative at 14-10 for -5.88 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs COL), PLAY KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-192 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season. This angle is so far 11-5 in the two-and-a-half weeks and has won +0.14 units.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 33-39 record for -1.00 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-108 vs SD), NY YANKEES (-108 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+120 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 23-18 for +6.16 units after a 6-10 for -3.96 units last week. The 3-game teams are 11-10 for +2.25 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-112 at MIL), FADE BALTIMORE (-102 vs MIN), FADE TORONTO (-112 vs NYY)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 11-12 for -6.2 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-142 vs PIT), PLAY CLEVELAND (+120 at BOS), PLAY ATLANTA (-142 at HOU)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 9-7 for -0.81 units, a slower start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-108 vs SD), PLAY MINNESOTA (-118 at BAL), PLAY NY YANKEES (-108 at TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1460-1373 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -182.73 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+100 vs MIN), CLEVELAND (+120 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at AZ), ARIZONA (-122 vs CHC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1318-1714 (43.5%) for -166.89 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY GAME 1 (-192 at CWS), TEXAS (+120 at DET), COLORADO (+185 at PHI), PITTSBURGH (+120 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+114 at SEA), WASHINGTON (+210 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2945-2579 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -390.69 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, BOSTON, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 828-709 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.55 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX GAME 1 (+160 vs KC), NY METS (-142 vs PIT)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit.
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 423-353 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.01 units, for a ROI of 3.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX GAME 1 (+160 vs KC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 134-107 run (+53.72 units, ROI: 22.3%).
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+185 at PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 103-100 (+19.56 units, ROI: 9.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+185 at PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -108 (+35 diff), WASHINGTON (+15 diff), COLORADO (+20 diff), BALTIMORE -102 (+30 diff), LA ANGELS +105 (+19 diff), OAKLAND +130 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-PHI OVER 8 (+0.6), PIT-NYM OVER 8 (+0.5), CIN-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-1.2), SD-MIL UNDER 9 (-0.9), STL-OAK UNDER 8 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (7-11) at (902) MIAMI (4-14)
Trend: Miami is 7-26 (-17.21 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-108 vs SF)
(905) PITTSBURGH (11-7) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (9-8)
Trend: Luis Severino is 10-3 (+6.40 units) in April/May starts in the last 2+ years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-142 vs PIT)
(909) CHICAGO-NL (10-7) at (910) ARIZONA (9-9)
Trend: Arizona was 6-3 (+3.49 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-122 vs CHC)
(913) MINNESOTA (6-10) at (914) BALTIMORE (11-6)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 14-3 (+10.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 at BAL)
(915) TEXAS (9-9) at (916) DETROIT (10-7)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 9-21 (-14.40 units) in day game starts in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+120 at DET)
(919) NEW YORK-AL (12-6) at (920) TORONTO (10-8)
Trend: Toronto was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-1, +0.00 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-112 vs NYY)
(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (8-9) at (922) TAMPA BAY (10-8)
Trend: LAA is 6-14 (-8.43 units) on the ROAD in the -160 to +130 line range for starter Reid Detmers
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+105 at TB)
(925) ATLANTA (11-5) at (926) HOUSTON (6-13)
Trend: Atlanta was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (2-0, +2.00 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-142 at HOU)
(927) ST LOUIS (9-9) at (928) OAKLAND (7-11)
Trend: Oakland is 6-15 (-7.85 units) vs teams with a winning pct between 45-55% with starter Paul Blackburn in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+130 vs STL)
(929) CINCINNATI (9-8) at (930) SEATTLE (8-10)
Trend: Seattle was 5-12 (-7.67 units) vs teams with a winning record with starter Bryce Miller last season (2-0, +2.02 units this season)
System Match: CONSIDER FADING SEATTLE (-135 vs CIN)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Underdogs are 11-4 (73.3%, +8.54 units) in the last 15 of the series
– The ROI on this trend is 56.9%.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+102 at AZ)
Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Favorites are 13-1 (92.9%, +11.52 units) in the last 14 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 82.3%
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-142 vs PIT)
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Favorites are just 19-29 (39.6%, -22.28 units) in the last 48 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -46.4%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-112 vs NYY)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
