Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is improving at 56-22 for +1.33 units.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-205 at CWS)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 256-212 (54.7%) for +41.03 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+140 vs MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 127-91 (+23.03 units, ROI: 10.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs CHC)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. AL teams (17-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 15-5 (+13.00 units) vs. AL West teams in L5 seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING LA ANGELS (+136 vs HOU)
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. WASHINGTON: 8-18 (32.0%) -18.60 units, ROI: -71.5%
Next betting opportunity: Saturday 6/8 vs Philadelphia
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+130 vs PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 UNITS and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 Units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority HANDLE bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 UNITS and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-205 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors were worse overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 UNITS and a ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (-142 vs SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority HANDLE bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the BETS was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 UNITS and a ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs NYM), BOSTON RL (at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru Sunday 6/2, they are 445-368 for -11.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, OAKLAND, BOSTON, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the ’24 season thus far, the record of this angle is improving at 56-22 for +1.33 units.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-205 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 142-172 record for -8.00 units (ROI -2.5%). This angle took a hit on Wednesday 6/5, going 0-5 for -5.13 units.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): OAKLAND (+140 vs TOR), LA DODGERS (+105 at NYY)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 126-133 record, for +5.17 units (ROI 2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): OAKLAND (+140 vs TOR), LA DODGERS (+105 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 79-86 for -3.62 units. The 3-game teams are 40-42 for +0.70 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+114 vs SEA)
3-games – FADE NY METS (+130 vs PHI)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak are 89-72 for +3.78 units (2.3% ROI) thru Friday 6/7.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-155 vs NYM), CINCINNATI (-120 vs CHC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 88 plays on this angle so far in ’24 through 6/7 and these teams are 44-44 for -5.51 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-122 at PIT)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 333-311 (51.7%) for +33.65 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 5.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+140 vs MIL)
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1539-1425 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -162.49 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-166 at DET), NY METS (+130 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (-148 vs AZ), SEATTLE (-135 at KC), KANSAS CITY (+114 vs SEA)
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1413-1845 (43.4%) for -191.17 units and a R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, TORONTO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3088-2706 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -412.71 units and a R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 vs BOS), KANSAS CITY (+114 vs SEA), ST LOUIS (-185 vs COL), SAN DIEGO (-148 vs AZ)
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 872-757 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.88 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+140 vs MIL), LA ANGELS (+136 vs HOU), PITTSBURGH (+102 vs MIN)
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 444-379 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.60 units, for a R.O.I. of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+140 vs MIL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 256-212 (54.7%) for +41.03 units and an R.O.I. of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+140 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 85-72 outright (+3.45 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 vs PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more are on an 183-96 (+13.04 units, ROI: 4.7%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 53-44 (+13.38 units, ROI: 13.8%) in their last 97 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 127-91 (+23.03 units, ROI: 10.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-120 vs CHC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +136 (+29 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -155 (+43 diff), ATLANTA -142 (+23 diff), CINCINNATI -120 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-SD OVER 8 (+0.5), LAD-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (44-19) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (27-35)
Trend: NYM trending OVER vs LH starters (12-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)
(903) ATLANTA (35-26) at (904) WASHINGTON (28-35)
Trend: ATL trending UNDER on the ROAD (9-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (31-33) at (906) CINCINNATI (31-33)
Trend: CHC not as good vs LH starters (4-9, -5.82 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at CIN)
(907) COLORADO (22-41) at (908) ST LOUIS (30-32)
Trend: COL not good on the ROAD (9-24, -7.08 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at STL)
(909) ARIZONA (30-34) at (910) SAN DIEGO (33-34)
Trend: AZ trending UNDER vs RH starters (14-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(911) TORONTO (30-33) at (912) OAKLAND (26-39)
Trend: TOR more UNDER vs AL Central/West (8-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(913) BOSTON (32-32) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (16-48)
Trend: BOS better during the DAY (15-9, +4.84 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-205 at CWS)
(915) SEATTLE (36-29) at (916) KANSAS CITY (38-26)
Trend: KC good vs AL West/East (21-12, +9.49 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+114 vs SEA)
(917) BALTIMORE (40-22) at (918) TAMPA BAY (31-32)
Trend: BAL good during the DAY (18-9, +5.75 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-135 at TB)
(919) HOUSTON (29-35) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (24-39)
Trend: HOU not great bet vs LH starters (6-12, -10.86 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-162 at LAA)
(921) MINNESOTA (33-30) at (922) PITTSBURGH (30-33)
Trend: PIT hasn’t been good vs AL teams this season (7-13, -8.28 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+102 vs MIN)
(923) SAN FRANCISCO (31-33) at (924) TEXAS (30-33)
Trend: SF not as good vs LH starters (6-12, -7.81 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+120 at TEX)
(925) MILWAUKEE (37-26) at (926) DETROIT (31-32)
Trend: MIL trending OVER vs AL teams (17-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(927) CLEVELAND (40-22) at (928) MIAMI (22-41)
Trend: MIA trending OVER at HOME (23-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(929) LOS ANGELES-NL (40-25) at (930) NEW YORK-AL (45-20)
Trend: LAD pretty good record vs LH starters (17-7, +0.40 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (+105 at NYY
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (44-19) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (27-35)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 2-5 (-4.49 units) against NL East opponents in L5 seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+130 vs PHI)
(903) ATLANTA (35-26) at (904) WASHINGTON (28-35)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 5-10 (-3.38 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+120 vs ATL)
(917) BALTIMORE (40-22) at (918) TAMPA BAY (31-32)
Trend: TB was 2-9 (-7.57 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley last season (1-2, -0.90 units this season)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+114 vs BAL)
(919) HOUSTON (29-35) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (24-39)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 15-5 (+13.00 units) vs AL West teams in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+136 vs HOU)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. WASHINGTON: 8-18 (32.0%) -18.60 units, ROI: -71.5%
Next betting opportunity: Saturday 6/8 vs Philadelphia
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+130 vs PHI)
