The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-307 (51.7%) for +34.00 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+110 vs TOR)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 147-131 run (+39.76 units, ROI: 14.3%).
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-108 vs KC)

Trend: COL awful vs. NL East/Central (1-11, -8.12 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 vs PHI)

Series #1: Houston at Oakland, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Oakland is 4-20 (16.7%, -11.05 units) in its last 24 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -46%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+145 vs HOU)

Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Home teams are 17-3 (85%, +13.21 units) in the last 20 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 66.1%
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-110 vs CLE)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at NYM), BOSTON (-135 vs MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): BALTIMORE (-270 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-225 at COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-155 at WSH), BOSTON (-135 vs MIL), NY YANKEES (-115 at SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: SF-NYM, CLE-LAA
PLAY UNDER in: BAL-CWS, CHC-STL, NYY-SD

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-135 vs MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS RL, BALTIMORE RL, PHILADELPHIA RL, ARIZONA RL, HOUSTON RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through Sunday 5/20, they are 352-293 for -8.65 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, NY METS, ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again fading fast, 32-20 for -11.36 units and an ROI of -21.8%. The ROI on this system has dropped 60% over the past 46 days.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-198 vs MIA)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 41-17 for -1.32 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 at COL), BALTIMORE (-270 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 117-136 record for -1.19 units (ROI -0.5%). This angle has settled in relatively but has been better in the past seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+120 vs. CHC), DETROIT (+110 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs. KC), CLEVELAND (-110 at LAA), WASHINGTON (+130 vs. SEA), MILWAUKEE (+114 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 47-58 for +0.35 units. The three-game teams are 32-31 for +6.35 units. Both of these angles are on profitable two weeks, and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at NYM), FADE TORONTO (-130 at DET), FADE SAN DIEGO (-105 vs NYY)
3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-112 at TB), FADE BOSTON (-135 vs MIL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 67-48 for +3.10 units through Thursday, 5/23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+120 vs CHC), PHILADELPHIA (-218 at COL), CLEVELAND (-110 at LAA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 68 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/23 and these teams are 37-31 for +1.01 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-148 vs. SF), DETROIT (+110 vs TOR), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs KC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent

Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-307 (51.7%) for +34.00 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+110 vs TOR)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1517-1412 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -168.38 units. This represents a ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-130 at DET), COLORADO (+180 vs PHI), OAKLAND (+145 vs HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1384-1808 (43.4%) for -187.20 units and a ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE, TEXAS, CHICAGO CUBS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3053-2668 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.28 units and a ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, BOSTON, TAMPA BAY, ARIZONA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, COLORADO, OAKLAND, SAN DIEGO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 859-744 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.93 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-110 vs CLE)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 436-372 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.83 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+110 vs TOR)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 252-210 (54.5%) for +38.48 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+180 vs PHI)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 81-66 outright (+6.60 units, ROI: 4.5%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 147-131 run (+39.76 units, ROI: 14.3%).
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-108 vs KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 115-112 (+20.42 units, ROI: 9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+130 at MIN), DETROIT (+110 vs TOR), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 161-105 in their last 266 tries (+23.90 units, ROI: 9%).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-225 at COL), PLAY KANSAS CITY (-112 at TB), PLAY CLEVELAND (-110 at LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 70-78 (-39.29 units, ROI: -26.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-225 at COL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +136 (+26 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +124 (+22 diff), COLORADO +180 (+30 diff), MIAMI +164 (+15 diff), DETROIT +110 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -155 (+35 diff), MINNESOTA -155 (+20 diff), CLEVELAND -110 (+25 diff), HOUSTON -175 (+45 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-LAA OVER 7.5 (+1.2), TEX-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.8), SF-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.8), NYY-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CHC-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), PHI-COL OVER 11 (+0.7), BAL-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-PHI UNDER 9.5 (-1.4), MIL-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ATLANTA (29-18) at (952) PITTSBURGH (23-28)
Trend: ATL good record vs LH starters (10-4, +3.57 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-162 at PIT)

(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-19) at (954) CINCINNATI (20-30)
Trend: CIN not great vs LH starters (6-11, -6.98 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+130 vs LAD)

(955) SAN FRANCISCO (25-26) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (21-28)
Trend: SF not great on the ROAD (10-16, -6.84 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at NYM)

(957) CHICAGO-NL (27-24) at (958) ST LOUIS (23-26)
Trend: CHC better vs RH starters (23-18, +6.26 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-142 at STL)

(959) PHILADELPHIA (37-14) at (960) COLORADO (16-33)
Trend: COL awful vs NL East/Central (1-11, -8.12 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 vs PHI)

(961) MIAMI (17-34) at (962) ARIZONA (24-26)
Trend: AZ slight OVER vs LH starters (11-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(963) TORONTO (23-26) at (964) DETROIT (23-27)
Trend: TOR trending UNDER vs AL Central/West (6-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(965) KANSAS CITY (32-19) at (966) TAMPA BAY (25-26)
Trend: KC good bet vs RH starters (25-15, +9.95 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-112 at TB)

(967) BALTIMORE (30-18) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (15-36)
Trend: CWS is horrible vs RH starters (10-29, -14.03 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+220 vs BAL)

(971) CLEVELAND (33-17) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (20-30)
Trend: BOTH teams trending OVER vs LH starters (7-2 O/U and 6-2 O/U respectively)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(975) SEATTLE (27-24) at (976) WASHINGTON (21-27)
Trend: SEA trending UNDER vs NL teams (4-13 O/U
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(977) MILWAUKEE (28-21) at (978) BOSTON (26-24)
Trend: MIL trending OVER vs AL teams (14-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

(979) NEW YORK-AL (35-17) at (980) SAN DIEGO (27-26)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (29-11, +16.02 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-115 at SD)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) ATLANTA (29-18) at (952) PITTSBURGH (23-28)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 7-2 (+4.55 units) as a home night starter in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+136 vs ATL)

(961) MIAMI (17-34) at (962) ARIZONA (24-26)
Trend: MIA is 1-8 (-5.75 units) as a large underdog (+150 or more) with starter Braxton Garrett in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+154 at AZ)

(963) TORONTO (23-26) at (964) DETROIT (23-27)
Trend: TOR is 13-3 (+9.12 units) in night games within line range of -105 to -140 with starter Alek Manoah in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-130 at DET)

(971) CLEVELAND (33-17) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (20-30)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (3-1, +2.07 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-110 at LAA)

(973) HOUSTON (22-28) at (974) OAKLAND (21-31)
Trend: HOU is 3-13 (-19.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-175 at OAK)

Trend: Ross Stripling is 4-12 (-5.95 units) as a night time underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+145 vs HOU)

(975) SEATTLE (27-24) at (976) WASHINGTON (21-27)
Trend: SEA is 12-4 (+4.98 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-155 at WSH)

(977) MILWAUKEE (28-21) at (978) BOSTON (26-24)
Trend: BOS is 1-6 (-6.88 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-135 vs MIL)

(979) NEW YORK-AL (35-17) at (980) SAN DIEGO (27-26)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is 5-11 (-11.50 units) in the last 16 road starts vs NL teams
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-115 at SD)

Trend: SD is 10-17 (-9.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasonsSystem Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-105 vs NYY)

Series #1: Houston at Oakland, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Oakland is 4-20 (16.7%, -11.05 units) in its last 24 games vs. Houston.
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -46%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+145 vs HOU)

Series #9: Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Pittsburgh is 3-12 (20%, -5.86 units) in the last 15 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -39.1%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 vs ATL)

Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Fri 5/24-Sun 5/26
Trend: Home teams are 17-3 (85%, +13.21 units) in the last 20 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
–  The R.O.I. on this trend is 66.1%
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-110 vs CLE)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 5/31)

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