Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the general bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 115-110 record, for +16.4 units (ROI 7.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+140 at BAL), OAKLAND (+140 at TB), MINNESOTA (+105 vs. KC), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 282-136 (67.5%) for +45.19 units and an ROI of 10.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-162 vs PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 82-69 outright (+3.40 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM) GAME 1
Trend: ATL is 9-2 (+5.55 units) in the last three seasons against Washington with Max Fried starter
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-258 vs WSH)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 6-14 (-7.87 units) as a short underdog within line range of -105 to +110 in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+100 vs AZ)
Trend: BOS not as good at night (14-19, -7.01 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+136 at BAL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): TEXAS (+100 vs AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-258 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): TORONTO (-218 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-205 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-162 vs. PIT), TEXAS (+100 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (-142 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: OAK-TB, TOR-CWS, HOU-SEA, PHI-SF
PLAY UNDER in: PIT-DET, KC-MIN, MIA-SD
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 vs STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES RL (at LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 400-329 for -4.34 units. This is below usual standards, and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, OAKLAND, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, DETROIT, ARIZONA, CLEVELAND,
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again fading fast, 32-24 for -19.88 units and an ROI of -35.5%. After last week’s 4-9 (-9.82 unit) performance, the ROI on this system has dropped 63% over the past 51 days!
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-258 vs WSH), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-198 at SF), FADE LA DODGERS GAME 1 (-192 at NYM)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 128-145 record, for +2.68 units (ROI 1.0%). This angle has settled in lately.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+140 at BAL), OAKLAND (+140 at TB), MINNESOTA (+105 vs. KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 115-110 record, for +16.4 units (ROI 7.3%). This is an angle I will be watching more closely going forward.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+140 at BAL), OAKLAND (+140 at TB), MINNESOTA (+105 v.s KC), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 70-72 for +3.39 units. The three-game teams are 37-35 for +6.35 units. Both of these angles are unusually profitable, and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SEATTLE (-135 vs HOU), COLORADO (+120 vs CLE)
3+ games – FADE BALTIMORE (-166 vs BOS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 77-63 for +6.20 units (4.4% ROI) through Monday, 5/27.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): CINCINNATI (-130 vs. STL), DETROIT (-162 vs. PIT)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 76 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/27, and these teams are 39-37 for -4.24 units.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): LA DODGERS GAME 1 (-192 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 vs TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1523-1414 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -163.18 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-162 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (-170 vs. BOS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1392-1820 (43.3%) for -193.30 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS GAME 1, PITTSBURGH, OAKLAND, ARIZONA, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, ST LOUIS, MIAMI, HOUSTON
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3063-2677 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -401.01 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, COLORADO, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 282-136 (67.5%) for +45.19 units and an ROI of 10.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-162 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 82-69 outright (+3.40 units, ROI: 2.3%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM) GAME 1
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 149-135 run (+37.55 units, ROI: 13.2%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM) GAME 1, PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+136 at MIL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 119-120 (+15.21 units, ROI: 6.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM) GAME 1, PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 179-95 (+10.84 units, ROI: 4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-166 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 70-79 (-41.34 units, ROI: -27.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-166 vs BOS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +210 (+35 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +170 (+21 diff), MINNESOTA +105 (+29 diff), HOUSTON +114 (+18 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -130 (+17 diff), NY YANKEES -180 (+25 diff), CLEVELAND -142 (+36 diff), LA DODGERS GAME 2 -135 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-SF OVER 7.5 (+1.2), KC-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.1), LAD-NYM GAME 2 OVER 8 (+1.1), AZ-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.7), MIA-SD OVER 7 (+0.7), BOS-BAL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
(951) ST LOUIS (25-27) at (952) CINCINNATI (24-30)
Trend: STL pretty good at night (18-12, +6.12 units)
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+110 at CIN)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-22) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (22-30) (DH Game #1)
Trend: LAD not as good during the day (9-9, -5.30 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM)
(955) WASHINGTON (24-28) at (956) ATLANTA (30-21)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. RH starters (8-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(957) CHICAGO-NL (27-27) at (958) MILWAUKEE (31-22)
Trend: MIL good vs. RH starters (25-17, +8.74 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-162 vs CHC)
(959) MIAMI (19-36) at (960) SAN DIEGO (29-28)
Trend: MIA slight Under on the ROAD (9-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(961) PHILADELPHIA (38-17) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (28-27)
Trend: SF not as good at night (12-19, -10.94 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+170 vs PHI)
(963) BOSTON (27-27) at (964) BALTIMORE (34-18)
Trend: BOS not as good at night (14-19, -7.01 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+136 at BAL)
(967) KANSAS CITY (34-21) at (968) MINNESOTA (29-24)
Trend: KC good vs. RH starters (27-17, +9.95 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-130 at MIN)
(969) TORONTO (24-29) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (15-40)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (7-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(971) NEW YORK-AL (37-18) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (20-33)
Trend: LAA actually solid vs. LH starters (7-3, +6.45 units)
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+150 vs NYY)
(973) HOUSTON (24-30) at (974) SEATTLE (29-26)
Trend: SEA solid at night (22-15, +5.49 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-135 vs HOU)
(975) PITTSBURGH (25-29) at (976) DETROIT (26-27)
Trend: PIT trending Over vs. LH starters (13-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)
(977) ARIZONA (25-28) at (978) TEXAS (25-29)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs RH starters (11-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(979) CLEVELAND (36-18) at (980) COLORADO (19-34)
Trend: COL decent bet at home (12-11, +5.58 units)
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+114 vs CLE)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) ST LOUIS (25-27) at (952) CINCINNATI (24-30)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 3-11 (-10.74 units) as a shorter road underdog between line range of -105 to +130 against NL teams in last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+110 at CIN)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (33-22) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (22-30) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 30-7 (+11.55 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 9-2 (+3.50 units) vs. NL East teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at NYM)
(955) WASHINGTON (24-28) at (956) ATLANTA (30-21)
Trend: ATL is 9-2 (+5.55 units) in the last three seasons against Washington with Max Fried starter
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-258 vs WSH)
(957) CHICAGO-NL (27-27) at (958) MILWAUKEE (31-22)
Trend: MIL is 9-4 (+3.78 units) vs. CWS/CHC with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-162 vs CHC)
(963) BOSTON (27-27) at (964) BALTIMORE (34-18)
Trend: BOS is 7-12 (-4.24 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+136 at BAL)
(969) TORONTO (24-29) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (15-40)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 11-3 (+5.50 units) as a road night favorite of -140 or more since 2019
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-218 at CWS)
(975) PITTSBURGH (25-29) at (976) DETROIT (26-27)
Trend: DET is 2-6 (-4.40 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Tarik Skubal
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-162 vs PIT)
(977) ARIZONA (25-28) at (978) TEXAS (25-29)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 6-14 (-7.87 units) as a short underdog within line range of -105 to +110 in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+100 vs. AZ)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 5/31)
