The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-185 vs LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (+120 at TB), KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TEX), HOUSTON (-112 vs SEA), LA DODGERS (-118 vs ATL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-278 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TORONTO, NY METS, ST LOUIS, OAKLAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIL-CHC, SF-PHI
PLAY UNDER in: DET-NYY, LAA-CLE, CWS-STL, MIA-OAK

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-112 vs SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL TEAMS WITH MAJORITY HANDLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 Units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024 through Monday, 4/23, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, NY METS, ST LOUIS, OAKLAND

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are actually off to a better start, 21-7 for +6.61 units and an ROI of 23.6%. However, the ROI dropped 13% over the past 22 days.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-192 at WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative at 29-16 for -9.79 units after a brutal 0-2, -5.20 units day on last Friday.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-278 vs CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 69-74 record for +5.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at PHI), TEXAS (-105 at KC), SEATTLE (-108 at HOU), BALTIMORE (-105 at CIN), NY METS (+120 at TB)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 34-31 for +5.53 units. The 3-game teams are 18-22 for -2.91 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs SF), FADE DETROIT (+136 at NYY), FADE KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TEX)
3-games – FADE MIAMI (+114 at OAK)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 35-27 for -0.98 units through Thursday, 5/2.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-115 vs BOS), PLAY OAKLAND (-135 vs MIA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 38 plays on this angle so far in ’24 and these teams are 22-16 for +1.47 units.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-185 vs COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1483-1384 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.47 units. This represents a ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA (-115 vs BOS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1348-1759 (43.4%) for -179.65 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-180 at WSH), SEATTLE (-108 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+154 at CLE), BOSTON (-105 at MIN)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2985-2623 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -408.69 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs. MIL), MINNESOTA (-115 vs. BOS), KANSAS CITY (-115 vs. TEX), LA DODGERS (-118 vs. ATL), HOUSTON (-112 vs. SEA)

Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 847-718 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +34.22 units for backers and an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-185 vs COL), CINCINNATI (-118 vs BAL), WASHINGTON (+150 vs TOR)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 428-361 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.16 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-135 vs NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 140-115 run (+50.61 units, ROI: 19.8%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-180 vs COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 108-103 (+22.62 units, ROI: 10.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: *COL and PIT play each other today*

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 168-88 (+12.23 units, ROI: 4.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-115 vs BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 154-101 in their last 255 tries (+24.37 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-115 vs BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 29-14 (+16.61 units, ROI: 38.6%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-115 vs BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +160 (+20 diff), NY METS +120 (+31 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +225 (+32 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MINNESOTA -115 (+32 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-NYY OVER 7.5 (+1.0), BOS-MIN OVER 8 (+1.0), LAA-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.8), ATL-LAD OVER 9 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), SEA-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), CWS-STL UNDER 7.5 (-0.6), MIA-OAK UNDER 7.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) MILWAUKEE (19-11) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (19-13)
Trend: MIL has been good during the day (11-3, +9.06 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+105 at CHC)

(903) COLORADO (7-24) at (904) PITTSBURGH (14-18)
Trend: COL not good vs. LH starters (1-7, -5.51 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+145 at PIT)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (15-17) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (21-11)
Trend: PHI has been good vs RH starters (14-5, +6.38 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs SF)

(907) SAN DIEGO (16-18) at (908) ARIZONA (14-18)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs RH starters (3-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(909) ATLANTA (20-9) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (20-13)
Trend: LAD trending Over at home (11-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(911) DETROIT (18-13) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (20-13)
Trend: NYY good vs RH starters (16-7, +8.39 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs DET)

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (11-20) at (914) CLEVELAND (20-11)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs AL East/West (15-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(917) SEATTLE (17-14) at (918) HOUSTON (11-20)
Trend: Both teams trending Under vs RH starters (6-15 O/U / 6-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(919) BOSTON (18-14) at (920) MINNESOTA (17-13)
Trend: Boston has been good on the road (11-5, +6.68 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-105 at MIN)

(923) TORONTO (15-17) at (924) WASHINGTON (15-16)
Trend: WSH trending Under against AL teams (1-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(927) CHICAGO-AL (6-25) at (928) ST LOUIS (14-17)
Trend: CWS has been bad at RH starters (5-22, -14.47 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+225 at STL)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(903) COLORADO (7-24) at (904) PITTSBURGH (14-18)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 1-12 (-10.40 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in L4 seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at PIT)

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (15-17) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (21-11)
Trend: PHI is 20-3 (+15.15 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs SF)

(909) ATLANTA (20-9) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (20-13)
Trend: Charlie Morton is 1-6 (-5.52 units) in the last five seasons against LA Dodgers
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-102 at LAD)

(919) BOSTON (18-14) at (920) MINNESOTA (17-13)
Trend: BOS is 2-12 (-10.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-105 at MIN)

(925) NEW YORK-NL (16-15) at (926) TAMPA BAY (14-18)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 17-5 (+7.65 units) in home night games as a favorite in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-142 vs NYM)

Series #16: LA Angels at Cleveland, Fri 5/3-Sun 5/5
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 15-2 (88.2%, +13.26 units) in the last 17 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 78%
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-185 vs LAA)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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