The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 117-114 record, for +14.78 units (ROI 6.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+130 at TB), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 253-210 (54.6%) for +40.18 units and an ROI of 8.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+100 vs AZ)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: NY Mets are 19-4 (82.6%, +14.60 units) in the last 23 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 63.5%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+100 vs AZ)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: Detroit is 1-10 (9.1%, -8.3 units) in the last 11 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -75.5%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+102 at BOS)

Trend: Both KC and MIN slight Under during the day (8-13 O/U / 10-15 O/U respectively)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in KC-MIN (o/u at 8)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (-122 vs DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DET-BOS
PLAY UNDER in: HOU-SEA, AZ-NYM

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/26, they are 400-329 for -4.34 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, OAKLAND, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, BOSTON, NY YANKEES

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again fading fast, 34-25 for -19.86 units and an ROI of -33.7%. After last week’s 4-9 (-9.82 unit) performance, the ROI on this system has dropped 61% over the past 52 days!
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 132-152 record for +1.01 units (ROI 0.4%). This angle has settled in lately.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+130 at TB), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 117-114 record, for +14.78 units (ROI 6.4%). This is an angle I will be watching more closely going forward.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+130 at TB), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 72-74 for +3.39 units. The three-game teams are 38-36 for +5.55 units. Both of these angles are unusually profitable, and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE SEATTLE (-135 vs HOU)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 79 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/29 and these teams are 41-38 for -3.24 units.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): ARIZONA (-120 at NYM), HOUSTON (+114 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1524-1416 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.46 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs CHC)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1401-1827 (43.4%) for -190.36 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-120 at NYM), DETROIT (+102 at BOS), HOUSTON (+120 at SEA), NY YANKEES (-185 at LAA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3068-2681 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.45 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs CHC)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 865-752 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +10.63 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+154 vs NYY), SEATTLE (-142 vs HOU)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 440-375 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.82 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-122 vs DET)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 253-210 (54.6%) for +40.18 units and an ROI of 8.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+100 vs AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES -170 (+35 diff), BOSTON -122 (+22 diff), TAMPA BAY -155 (+20 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-NYM OVER 7 (+1.2), DET-BOS OVER 7.5 (+1.0), HOU-SEA OVER 7 (+0.6), NYY-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-TB UNDER 8 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) CHICAGO-NL (28-28) at (952) MILWAUKEE (32-23)
Trend: MIL good during the day (15-9, +6.39 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-122 vs CHC)

(953) ARIZONA (25-30) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (22-33)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. non-divisional teams (11-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(955) WASHINGTON (25-29) at (956) ATLANTA (31-22)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. RH starters (8-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(957) OAKLAND (23-34) at (958) TAMPA BAY (27-29)
Trend: OAK decent during the DAY (13-12, +4.42 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (+130 at TB)

(959) KANSAS CITY (35-22) at (960) MINNESOTA (30-25)
Trend: Both teams slight Under during the day (8-13 O/U / 10-15 O/U respectively)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(961) HOUSTON (24-32) at (962) SEATTLE (31-26)
Trend: SEA not great during the day (7-11, -7.04 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-135 vs HOU)

(963) DETROIT (27-28) at (964) BOSTON (28-28)
Trend: DET not as good vs. AL East/West (8-12, -6.10 units)
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+102 at BOS)

(965) NEW YORK-AL (38-19) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-34)
Trend: LAA solid bet vs. LH starters (8-3, +7.99 units)
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+142 vs NYY)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) CHICAGO-NL (28-28) at (952) MILWAUKEE (32-23)
Trend: Colin Rea good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (4-1, +3.54 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (*if they fall into this line range, -122 currently)

(965) NEW YORK-AL (38-19) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-34)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 11-14 (-6.32 units) in his last 25 starts with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-170 at LAA)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: NY Mets are 19-4 (82.6%, +14.60 units) in the last 23 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 63.5%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+100 vs AZ)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: Detroit is 1-10 (9.1%, -8.3 units) in the last 11 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -75.5%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+102 at BOS)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 5/31)

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