Tuley: Saturday Best Bets in MLB, NHL, XFL; Friday recaps

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Saturday Best Bets, Friday Recaps

Friday was another day heading out from the Tuley’s Takes home office as I drove back to Arizona for Jordyn’s junior oboe recital at Northern Arizona University (yes, the same week that Maddux had his first Las Vegas Youth Orchestra concert back in Las Vegas as it’s the season for end-of-school-year concerts).
It’s also baseball season and I was happy to follow along with my Best Bet of the day during the four-hour drive to Flagstaff as my Astros First 5 Inning +105 wager won to improve our record to 2-0-1 on the young season with a profit of 2.2 units on these plays. Houston starter Jose Urquidy bounced back as expected against the Twins lineup with 5 shutout innings while the Astros pushed across a run for a 1-0 lead after 5 innings and another winner.

 

After the recital and a nice dinner at our favorite Route 66 diner (Galaxy Diner), we checked into our hotel room, though my sports betting action didn’t fare as well at night as I lost my posted NBA play with the Suns +6.5 as they lost 121-107. It wasn’t as cut-and-dried as that as we were able to get +13.5 in Arizona as the Suns rested their stars (Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton) since they’re locked in the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. But we knew that and loved taking the added points, especially as the Phoenix backups were in the game and covering through three quarters, but it just didn’t work out this time as the Lakers pulled away in the fourth quarter and covered all numbers.
Let’s get to the rest of our recaps of Friday’s betting action and then look for better Best Bets on Saturday (no NBA today, though we do dive back into our preferred MLB F5 dogs as well as the NHL and XFL).

Friday Recaps

NBA: Faves went 6-5 SU Friday but dogs led 6-4-1 ATS with push in Pelicans (-8) 113-105 win vs. Knicks. The upsets were by the 76ers (+11.5 at Hawks), Pistons (+6.5 at Pacers), Wizards (+4 vs. Heat), Bulls (+2 at Mavericks) and Celtics (+2 vs. Raptors). The Hornets (+5.5) covered in their 112-109 loss vs. Rockets). Road teams 6-5 SU but split 5-5-1 ATS. Overs 6-5.

More NBA: On the season, favorites lead 796-400 SU with 16 games closing pick-’em, but dogs improved slim lead to 588-581-27 ATS (50.3%). Home teams lead 705-507 SU and 604-583-25 ATS (50.9%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead improved to 607-587-18 (50.8%).

MLB: Faves/dogs split 7-7 Friday with the biggest upsets by the Diamondbacks (+215 vs. Dodgers), Royals (+185 at Giants) and Blue Jays (+130 at Angels). Home teams went 9-5. Unders led 7-6-1 with the push in LAD-AZ (9). On the season, faves lead 65-45 with 1 pick-’em. Road teams dipped to 56-55. Overs dipped to 59-46-6.

Saturday MLB Best Bet

Brewers First 5 Innings +125 vs. Cardinals: The Brewers have won 6 straight since dropping the season-opener at the Cubs (reminds me of one of my favorite dad jokes: “Did you know the Cubs can serve beer at Wrigley Field this year? Why? Because they didn’t lose their opener!). I don’t know why the Brewers aren’t getting much respect as I’m not sure why Jordan Montgomery is this big of a favorite over Eric Lauer, but I’ll take the plus-money.

Saturday NHL Best Bet

Ducks-Coyotes 1P Over 1.5 -140 / Flames-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -155 (parlay pays +182): With the regular season winding down, let’s try another of these parlays. The Ducks are the No. 2 1P Over team at 51-26 and combine with the No. 10 Coyotes to go 96-60 (61,5%). The Flames-Canucks is an even stronger play as they’re the No. 4 and No. 1P Over teams, respectively, and combine to go 106-49 (68.4%). If looking for other options (or a round-robin, hint-hint), consider Lightning-Senators (59.2%) and Oilers-Sharks (58.6%).

Saturday XFL Best Bet

Vegas Vipers +7 at St. Louis Battlehawks: Vegas is still among the worst XFL teams, but they’ve won two of three and showed improvement last week with QB Jalan McClendon showing why they felt it was OK to trade away Luis Perez. Even though favorites have dominated at 16-10-1 ATS on the season, I still believe there’s parity in the XFL and the Vipers should stay within one score.