Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets in MLB and NBA, plus early XFL playoff pick

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Tuesday Best Bets

Welcome to our “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bets column for Tuesday.
In case you missed it last week, we’ve started splitting our daily column (that has been running for the past 19 months since September 2021) into two separate pieces: there’s a FREE ATS Report where I recap the betting action from the night before and update league-wide ATS stats in the various sports, and then this one where I look for the best betting opportunities on today’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles should be found on the VSiN.com home page, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/.

Monday Best Bet Results

Monday was a fun day for yours truly as I ventured out of the Tuley’s Takes home office to take in the night’s betting action at Circa in downtown Las Vegas.
I was meeting up with my nephew Craig to spend some of his comps before he goes to his summer job as an executive chef up in Alaska. We went to dinner at Barry’s Downtown Prime and actually had two chances to talk with Chef Barry Dakake, who I don’t think remembered meeting me at least 15 years ago when he had the N9NE restaurant at the Palms and George Maloof introduced us (but, hey, I bet he meets tens of thousands of random guests since then).
We also hung out during the NBA and NHL playoff games with my VSiN boss, Bill Adee, and VSiN superfans Randy McKay and Patrick O’Donoghue and also saw Matt Youmans, who stopped by after his show with Wes Reynolds.
It was also a great night for our Best Bets (even though we suffered a Bad Beat with the Grizzlies +4.5 at the Lakers as they lost the game and the cover in overtime – see my ATS Report for more details as I’d prefer not to relive it here!).
We won our top play on the Rangers First 5 Innings -110 at the Reds as they jumped all over Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo as expected and led 6-4 after 5 innings to win our wager, and then went on to lose 7-6, so I was happy to focus in on the F5 wager and didn’t have to regret passing on the full-game money line.
We also hit our Maple Leafs-Lightning 1P Over 1.5 -145 / Avalanche-Kraken 1P Over 1.5 -130 parlay as it paid +199 with the Lightning and Kraken jumping out to 2-0 leads in each game’s first 20 minutes. This was our 4th straight score in this series after we’ve hit this parlay on alternating days on Tuesday (+208), Thursday (+208), Saturday (+209) and Monday (+199) for a net profit of 8.24 units!
Let’s get to Tuesday’s plays, as I’m again passing on the NHL on the other alternating days that I pointed out on last Sunday’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” were full of more 1P Under teams.

MLB Tuesday Best Bets

Pirates First 5 Innings +105 vs. Dodgers: Everyone has two questions heading in this mid-week three-game series: Can the Pirates continue their NL-best 16-7 start? And will the Dodgers (12-11) overcome a slow start and get into first place in the NL West? Most people expect the Pirates to eventually come back to Earth and the Dodgers to get into its rightful place at the top of the NL playoff chase, but we’re going to back the Pirates in the First 5 inning wager on Tuesday. We also like the pitching matchup with Johan Oviedo (2-1, 2.22 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (0-4, 4.91), who might be the weak link in the Dodgers’ starting rotation.

Reds First 5 +140 vs. Rangers: I know I cashed with the Rangers F5 on Monday and am now flipping to the Reds, but we were on the Rangers because we thought they were the value play at basically pick’em – and now we get the Reds at a juicy +140. In addition, the Reds are a “swagger play” after they rallied to win 7-6 to snap their 6-game losing streak. So, we look for them to carry that momentum into this game even though I’m a little wary of fading Texas’ Martin Perez (which is why I made the Pirates my top play).

NBA Tuesday Bet Bet

Timberwolves +9.5 at Nuggets: Tuesday’s NBA schedule is interesting with the Hawks and the Clippers both getting double-digits in the “zig-zag” role, but I’m actually going against the zig-zag with the Timberwolves. I didn’t bet them in Game 4 as we often see teams trailing 3-0 roll over and get swept, but we were impressed enough with the way they battled to avoid elimination that we’ll take them to again put up a fight in Game 5 back in Denver and at least cover this big number.

XFL playoffs Best Bet

Seattle Sea Dragons +5 at DC Defenders: We gave this out Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” when Circa Sports was one of the rare books with early lines on the XFL playoff games this upcoming weekend. We don’t like the Arlington Renegades vs. the Houston Roughnecks in Saturday’s XFL semifinal game, but took Seattle in this matchup on Sunday. DC (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) was the top team during the regular season, but Seattle lost its first 2 games of the season, including 22-18 at DC, and then went 6-1 the rest of the way with the only other loss to DC, though that was another close game at 34-33. I have this at pick’em, even with DC at home as XFL hosts are just 19-19-2 ATS overall, so home-field advantage is negligible (even though DC was 4-1 ATS at home, though failed in most recent home game as 10-point chalk in 28-26 win vs. Arlington in Week 9). I believed this line opened too high and it’s now down to Seattle +3.5. However, in Monday’s version of this column, I made the comment: “we have to take the Sea Dragons at anything more than a field goal,” so we still like this play.