MLB Season Win Total Props
In my “NBA After the All-Star Break” takes column at VSiN.com, I alluded to a young man’s fancy lightly turning to thoughts of love in the spring … and baseball. It’s even more true here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we’ve been turning our attention more to MLB with teams already at spring training and playing exhibition games, especially in terms of looking at MLB season win total props as we’re making bets on our top picks and also looking at all the teams as we’re in some contests this spring, including at the Westgate SuperBook.
In addition, I’m getting back into a National League-only league after passing on fantasy baseball in recent years, dating at least to the 2020 pandemic and possibly before, as I had tired of the day-to-day grind. Still, I’m now looking forward to it again.
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Let’s go over my favorite Over and Under season win total plays. I’ve also been studying up on the American League, but it turns out that my two strongest opinions on both the Overs and the Unders both fall in the National League (maybe it’s because of my prep for the NL-only fantasy league, but it is what it is). I’d prefer to stick to it this way than “force” a play or two in the AL.
San Diego Padres: Over 82
I’ve been high on the Padres for a couple of years now (losing several future wagers along the way as they’ve underperformed probably more than any other team).
A Numbers Game host Gill Alexander pointed out on Wednesday’s show that the Padres underperformed by 11 full games last season as they should have won 93 games and only won 82, according to Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem. (If you miss these gems live, you can always find them in Bill Adee’s morning newsletter, a daily must-read for VSiN subscribers).
We also know they lost Juan Soto and Blake Snell, but the roster is still loaded, and their MLB season win total is down to 81.5 games, so we just need them to finish over .500 by two games to cash this ticket; one game if you got 81.5). We hope they don’t continue to lower the bar on expectations, right?
Cincinnati Reds: Over 82
The Reds had a wild 2023 season. They started out as the laughingstock of the league. It seemed that every day on VSiN, handicapping was calling on everyone to fade the Reds. On June 6, the day that rookie shortstop Elly De La Cruz made his MLB debut, Cincinnati stood at 27-33. He burst on the scene (quickly becoming my favorite player to watch; hopefully, none of the owners in my NL-only league read this, or I’ll never be able to get a fair trade!). It’s no small coincidence that starting on June 10, the Reds went on a 12-game winning streak and suddenly looked like one of the best teams in baseball. De La Cruz was the fastest player in the NL (Statcast had him tied with Bobby Witt Jr. of the AL’s Royals at 30.5 feet per second, the strongest arm of any infielder, and he became the youngest player since 1972 (Cesar Cedeno) to hit for the cycle.
Of course, I’m not basing this wager on one player, but the Reds have other talented young players who really gelled at that point and hopefully do this full season with more experience. The pitching staff needs to be at the top of the league to keep them competitive on a nightly basis, and that should be enough as we just need them to get over .500.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Under 104.5
The Dodgers always have among the highest payrolls in the majors, and this year it’s no different, with it again being projected to exceed $200 million. They would have been loaded anyway, and then they added two-way stud Shohei Ohtani (though he’s not expected to pitch this season). Their MLB season win total would have been high regardless, but now it’s at 104.5 (as my mama told me, you better shop around), so now we see this as an obvious “buy low, sell high” spot as we need to fade this higher number.
Now, don’t get me wrong, the Dodgers can blow past that number if everything goes right and the majority of their lineup and pitching staff lives up to their potential, but that’s still easier said than done. We never cheer for injuries (right? LOL), but that’s not the only thing that could keep them from topping such a high number. In addition, we trust it’ll help if our Padres Over wager comes in to limit the number of wins the Dodgers can rack up in the NL West.
Miami Marlins: Under 77.5
Last year, I was not very high on the Marlins, and they kept surprising me. I remember passing on them as underdogs early in the season on multiple occasions only to kick myself when they pulled upsets, and I didn’t have a penny on them. I kept telling myself they weren’t that good. Overall, I did OK on them as I overcame my doubts and cashed some spot-plays, but while looking back at their season in the rear mirror now, I’m left with the feeling that they overachieved, and we have to look at the Under 78.5. As Alexander said in his “Gill’s Top MLB Performers” segment, the Marlins won 84 games but should have only won 74, according to the Pythagorean Theorem. That gives us enough wiggle room here.
