Tuley’s Takes: Thursday MLB Best Bets 7/20


Wednesday Best Bet recaps

Wednesday was another relatively slow sports betting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office in the dog days of summer (and staying inside to escape the Las Vegas heat) as we also continued to work on my articles for the upcoming VSiN College Football Betting Guide (due out Aug. 3).


Unlike the past few days, it was worth the wait for our Best Bets – and we didn’t have to wait too long as the A’s-Red Sox had a relatively early start at 12:37 p.m. PT. I was a little leery about using the awful A’s as my top play with the way our dogs have fared so far this week, but they came through for us by cashing First 5 Innings +0.5 +110 (closed +120) and F5 +160 on the moneyline (closed as high as +190) as they led 6-4 through 5 innings. (Note: we’ve been discussing possibly switching to First 3 Inning plays to further reduce the chance of our dogs giving up leads, but I’m happy to report the A’s cashed no matter how we played them: 4-2 after 3 innings, 6-4 after 5 and 6-5 on the full-game ML).
We also hit our secondary play of the day on the Padres First 5 Innings +100 at the Blue Jays as San Diego led 2-0 after 5 innings (note: they pushed on First 3 innings at 0-0 but held on to win the game 2-0).
Anyway, the 3-0 record with the officially posted Best Bets (just the First 5s) was a huge help to cut into our losses so far in July as we’re still a woeful 14-22-1 for a net loss of $485, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page. At least we’re showing a profit since returning from the All-Star Break at 8-8-1 for +$230, so hopefully we can build on that.
Now, I would like to thank everyone who replied on email, Twitter and the “Fans of VSiN” Facebook group to my question about if we should start going with First 3 Innings plays instead of First 5 (especially after we’ve lost a couple of our plays in the 5th inning when we would have cashed if just going with the First 3). We had several people who liked the idea, but the majority of respondents said they didn’t have access to First 3 lines and preferred we maintain the status quo. I thought maybe with the expanded menu on the mobile apps in other states that there would be more people betting First 3 lines, but I found it’s still a little bit of a niche market out there with some books not offering it, plus a fair amount of our readers still dealing with local bookies and/or agent for offshore books that don’t offer that betting market.
So, we’ll stick with First 5 lines for the vast majority of our MLB plays – but I’d like to point out that I’ve always seen the mission of this column to give my opinion of my Best Bets on each day’s card. However, I’ve also always said that no one should follow anyone blindly – even me when I’m hot – and that VSiN should be viewed as part of the lifestyle of a daily sports bettor and you should pick and choose which advice works well with your own handicapping of the day’s games.
While I sincerely hope my columns help readers/viewers look to underdogs more than maybe they used to and help with their bottom line, I know my “dogmatic” approach isn’t for everyone. But we’re all in this together to try to beat the books, so I’ll always view our mission that way.
So, for those I haven’t put to sleep with my ramblings, let’s try to find more live dogs on Thursday’s card.

Thursday MLB Best Bets

Diamondbacks First 5 Innings +0.5 +100 and +160 F5 ML at Braves: This is very similar price-wise to the A’s-Red Sox yesterday, but while we cashed both on Wednesday, we actually feel more confident today with Zac Gallen (11-4, 3.14 ERA) and the D-backs as opposed to the A’s. Granted, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.66 ERA) is a stud, but he shouldn’t be favored this much over Gallen. Plus, just like Oakland yesterday – even though we didn’t end up needing it – we love the getting around even money with the D-backs +0.5 in case there’s a tie through 5 innings as we could easily see this matchup being 0-0 or 1-1

Brewers First 5 Innings +100 at Phillies: This is partly a “mini anti-swagger” play against the Phillies as the Brewers snapped their 4-game winning streak. The Brewers are also playing well as they’ve won four of five since the All-Star Break and five of six overall, plus I’ll take Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (3.73 ERA) over Philadelphia’s Tijuan Walker (4.00 ERA).