Tuley’s Takes Today: Wednesday recap, Thursday best bets in MLB, NHL 4/14


Wednesday was a great day for yours truly as I spent it at Knott’s Berry Farm with my son, Maddux, though I can’t say the same for my betting action.

I lost my Best Bet on the Spurs %plussign% 5.5 at the Pelicans as NBA faves ended up going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the first four games of the play-in tournament, so pickins’ have been slim the last few days (fortunately I had the lone covering underdog with the Cavaliers on Tuesday). That dropped our record to 39-20-1 ATS (66.1 percent) the past 60 days with our top play of the day, so we need a winner to get back to 66.7 percent.


As for our other plays, we also lost our Padres 1st 5 Innings %plussign% 105 play at the Giants as the Giants led 2-1 (same as the final score), though at least we made the right call on Under 3.5 in the 1st 5 Innings. In the NHL, we lost a small play on a short card with the Canadiens-Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 as the Blue Jackets led just 1-0.

Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s betting action and try to get back on the winning track with all our picks.

Wednesday’s recaps

NBA: Pelicans (-5) covered in 113-103 win vs. the Spus in Wednesday’s late play-in tournament game (game stayed Under 225 points) to earn the right to face the Clippers for the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed on Friday. The Spurs were eliminated. Earlier, the Hawks (-5.5) also covered in 132-103 rout vs. Hornets to earn right to face the Cavaliers for the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed on Friday (game stayed just Under 235.5). The Hornets were eliminated. Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS Wednesday and are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tourney. Unders are 4-0.

MLB: Faves/dogs split 6-6 Wednesday (after chalk went 12-2 Tuesday with 1 pick-’em). Upsets were by the Nationals (%plussign% 190 in 3-1 win at Braves), Pirates (%plussign% 111 in 6-2 win vs. Cubs), A’s (%plussign% 167 in 4-2 win at Rays), Blue Jays (%plussign% 150 in 6-4 win at Yankees), Guardians (%plussign% 113 in 7-3 win at Reds) and Diamondbacks (%plussign% 140 in 3-2 win vs. Astros). Road teams went 8-4. Unders went 7-5.

More MLB: With faves/dogs splitting 6-6, faves still lead 51-35 SU on the young season with 1 pick-’em. After going 8-4, road teams have actually taken a 45-42 lead. With a 7-5 mark on Wednesday, Unders now lead 48-32-7 (60 percent), thanks mostly to going 13-1-1 last Saturday as Unders lead just 35-31-6 the other 6 days.

NHL: Faves went 3-0 on a short card as the Rangers (-210 in 4-0 shutout at Flyers), Blue Jackets (-156 in 5-1 rout vs Canadiens) and Avalanche (-265 in 9-3 rout vs. Kings) all won as chalk and also all covered the -1.5 puck line. Unders went 2-1.

Thursday’s Takes

Phillies %plussign% 105 at Marlins: We’ll take the Phillies as short road dogs here. Their bats should come alive with the move South. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara looked good in his first start, but Philly’s Kyle Gibson was just as strong with 7 innings and no earned runs, so no reason for the Marlins to be favored besides being home (and as we saw above, road teams are actually ahead those there’s no discernible home-field advantage so far this season). I’m also probably playing the Blue Jays again at the Yankees (around %plussign% 110).

Devils-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 (-165 DraftKings): In the Devils we trust (23-7 with 1P Overs their past 30 games), though again it’s just as much about them allowing early goals (averaging 1.14 goals allowed in 1st periods) as Avalanche average 1.06 goals per 1st period). Capitals-Maple Leafs is the only other 1P Over that I would consider adding in a parlay (Red Wings-Hurricanes also has a game total of 6.5, but Hurricanes are the worst 1P Over team in the league, so I’ll pass).

Good luck today (and every day!).