Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-185 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 UNITS and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY DETROIT (-125 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIN-DET (o/u at 6.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN), MINNESOTA (+105 at DET), HOUSTON (-135 at KC), PITTSBURGH (+124 at PHI), BALTIMORE (-125 at BOS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY TEXAS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 (through Monday, April 9), they are 77-69 for -12.71 units.
System Matches: ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, BALTIMORE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. So far in the 2024 season, the record of this angle is 12-7 for -3.48 units.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (*if they become a -190 favorite or higher, -185 currently)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season. This angle is 8-4 so far for -0.86 units.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (*if they become a -190 favorite or higher, -185 currently)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 22-22 record for +2.44 units.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+105 at DET), PLAY OAKLAND (+154 at TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight NBA betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1451-1362 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -181.11 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+114 vs HOU)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1304-1704 (43.4%) for -172.32 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-135 at KC), OAKLAND (+154 at TEX)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2928-2559 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -382.61 units and an ROI of -7.0%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-170 vs. NYM), DETROIT (-125 vs. MIN), KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. HOU), TEXAS (-185 vs. OAK), BOSTON (+102 vs. BAL)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 824-705 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.70 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+105 vs MIL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 419-348 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.05 units, for an ROI of 3.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 149-98 in their last 247 tries (+22.52 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. HOU)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT +105 (+17 diff), KANSAS CITY +114 (+15 diff), OAKLAND +154 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -170 (-198)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.9), MIN-DET OVER 6.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-TEX UNDER 9.5 (-1.3), NYM-ATL UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (4-7) at (902) ATLANTA (7-3)
Trend: NYM not good during the day so far (2-5, -4.22 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Atlanta trending Over in divisional play (5-0 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(903) MILWAUKEE (8-3) at (904) CINCINNATI (6-6)
Trend: Milwaukee has been good during the day (5-1, +4.22 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE
Trend: Cincinnati trending Over at home (7-2 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(905) PITTSBURGH (9-3) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (6-6)
Trend: Pittsburgh been good against LH starters so far (5-0, +5.58 units)
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH
Trend: Philadelphia trending Over at home (5-1 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(909) HOUSTON (4-9) at (910) KANSAS CITY (8-4)
Trend: Houston trending Under against RH starters (2-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
Trend: Kansas City has been good at home (7-2, +5.07 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY
(913) BALTIMORE (7-4) at (914) BOSTON (7-5)
Trend: Baltimore has been good vs. RH starters (5-1, +3.38 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (4-7) at (902) ATLANTA (7-3)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 0-5 (-5.55 units) in his last five starts vs. Atlanta
System Match: FADE NY METS (+142 at ATL)
(905) PITTSBURGH (9-3) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (6-6)
Trend: Philadelphia is 10-3 (+5.20 units) vs NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-148 vs PIT)
(909) HOUSTON (4-9) at (910) KANSAS CITY (8-4)
Trend: Houston is 1-5 (-5.20 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (*if they fall into this line range, -135 currently)
Trend: Kansas City is 12-4 (+9.37 units) in home day games with starter Brady Singer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+114 vs HOU)
(911) OAKLAND (4-8) at (912) TEXAS (7-5)
Trend: Oakland is 3-14 (-9.45 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+154 at TEX)
Trend: Texas is 8-2 (+5.80 units) in home day games with Jon Gray in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-185 vs OAK)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, 4/12)
