HomeMLBVSiN Analytics MLB Betting Trend Report - April 2

    VSiN Analytics MLB Betting Trend Report – April 2

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the MLB betting trends you need to know for the games of Tuesday, April 2.

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    The following MLB betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

    Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top MLB Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

    As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
    System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-170 vs KC)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.

    System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+110 at NYM), SEATTLE (-118 vs CLE)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
    System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-225 at CWS)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
    System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. MIN), FADE MIAMI (-148 vs. LAA), FADE NY METS (-130 vs. DET), FADE ATLANTA (-225 at CWS), FADE NY YANKEES (-102 at AZ)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
    System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DET-NYM (o/u at 7.5), PLAY OVER in COL-CHC (o/u at 7.5), PLAY UNDER in CLE-SEA (o/u at 7)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
    System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs. CIN), FADE MIAMI (-148 vs. LAA), FADE NY METS (-130 vs. DET), FADE HOUSTON (-155 vs. TOR)

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
    – Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and an ROI of +9.2%.
    System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at TB), PLAY ATLANTA (-225 at CWS), PLAY BOSTON (-155 at OAK), PLAY CLEVELAND (-102 at SEA), PLAY NY YANKEES (-102 at AZ)

      DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
      System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, CHICAGO CUBS RL, ATLANTA RL, BOSTON RL, LA DODGERS RL

      MLB Bullpen Systems

      The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

      Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment,
      System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, BOSTON, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, MIAMI, NY METS, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES

      Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
      A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 5-3 for -1.22 units.
      System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs COL), PLAY ATLANTA (-225 at CWS)

      Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
      In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle was 5-3 in the final week and again lost –2.4 units. This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit! This season, these big favorites are 2-2 for -2.30 units.
      System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs COL), FADE ATLANTA (-225 at CWS)

      Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
      A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 9-4 for +5.72 units.
      System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 at SD), PLAY MINNESOTA (-102 at MIL), PLAY NY YANKEES (-102 at AZ), PLAY DETROIT (+105 at NYM)

      Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
      I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season, they are 2-2 for -0.62 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6% (this 2024 season, they are 2-0 for +2.44 units).
      System Matches: 2-games – FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at PHI), FADE LA ANGELS (+124 at MIA)
      3+ games – FADE MILWAUKEE (-118 vs MIN), FADE DETROIT (+110 at NYM)

      Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
      In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system” (this 2024 season they are 3-1 for +1.75 units).
      System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-102 at AZ)

      Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
      Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2% (this 2024 season, they are 1-3 for -3.02 units).
      System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-130 vs DET), PLAY MIAMI (-148 vs LAA)

      MLB Extreme Stats Systems

      The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

      Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent.
      Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 314-289 (52.1%) for +38.97 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
      System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. ATL), PLAY OAKLAND (+136 vs. BOS)

      “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
      Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1443-1348 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.50 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
      System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+130 at TB), BOSTON (-162 at OAK), HOUSTON (-155 vs TOR), ATLANTA (-225 at CWS)

      Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
      You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1286-1688 (43.2%) for -175.46 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
      System Matches: FADE COLORADO (+170 at CHC), FADE TORONTO (+130 at HOU), FADE MINNESOTA (-102 at MIL)

      Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
      Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2909-2532 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -366.98 units and an R.O.I. of -6.7%.
      System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs. COL), HOUSTON (-155 vs. TOR), SEATTLE (-122 vs. CLE), LA DODGERS (-135 vs. SF), BALTIMORE (-170 vs. KC)

      Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
      MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 817-699 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +23.38 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.5%.
      System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. ATL), PLAY OAKLAND (+136 vs. BOS), PLAY ARIZONA (-118 vs. NYY)

      Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit.
      Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 413-345 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.40 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.4%.
      System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs COL)

      Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites.
      Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 276-131 (67.8%) for +47.78 units and an R.O.I. of 11.7%!
      System Matches: HOUSTON (-155 vs TOR)

      MLB Streak Systems

      The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

      Losing Streak Betting System #6:
      Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 129-105 run (+48.98 units, ROI: 20.9%).
      System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-130 vs. DET), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 vs. ATL)

      Winning Streak Betting System #6:
      Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 57-55 (-21.48 units, ROI: -19.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
      System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-102 at AZ)

      Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

      The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

      Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
      System Matches: COLORADO +170 (+21 diff), TEXAS +130 (+25 diff), TORONTO +130 (+16 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +185 (+34 diff)

      Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
      System Matches: LA DODGERS -135 (+19 diff), SEATTLE -125 (+20 diff)

      Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
      System Matches: CIN-PHI OVER 8.5 (+0.7), STL-SD OVER 8 (+0.5), KC-BAL OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

      Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
      System Matches: ATL-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.8), SF-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), LAA-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

      MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

      The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

      (953) COLORADO (1-4) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (2-2)
      Trend: Colorado was 3-11 (-5.75 units) on the road last year with starter Kyle Freeland (0-1, -1.00 unit this season)
      System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at CHC)

      (955) ST LOUIS (2-3) at (956) SAN DIEGO (3-4)
      Trend: San Diego is 9-17 (-10.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
      System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range today, -135 currently*)

      (957) SAN FRANCISCO (2-3) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (5-2)
      Trend: Logan Webb is 5-1 (+7.34 units) on the road vs LA Dodgers in the last five seasons
      System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+

      (961) TEXAS (3-1) at (962) TAMPA BAY (2-3)
      Trend: Tampa Bay was 13-3 (+7.65 units) in night games with Zach Eflin last season
      System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-155 vs TEX)

      (971) LOS ANGELES-AL (2-2) at (972) MIAMI (0-5)
      Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 10-3 (+4.55 units) at home as a -150 or higher favorite
      System Match: PLAY MIAMI (*if they become a -150 or higher favorite today, -148 currently)

      (977) NEW YORK-AL (5-0) at (978) ARIZONA (3-2)
      Trend: NYY is 8-3 (+6.74 units) as an underdog with starter Nestor Cortes in the last three seasons
      System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-102 at AZ)

      Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Mon 4/1-Wed 4/3
      Trend: Home teams are 13-3 (81.3%, +9.63 units) in the last 16 games between San Diego and St. Louis
      – The R.O.I. on this trend is 60.2%
      System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-135 vs STL)

      Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

      The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

      NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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