Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
One of the most popular bets in MLB these days is the YRFI and NRFI, mostly because you only have to sweat for about 15 minutes. The YRFI was the most profitable side for the first 2 months of the season, but recently we’ve seen the NRFI make a big comeback hitting at over 55% so far in June.
I went 1-1 with my best bets yesterday as the Marlins exploded for 2 runs in the first inning against the Nats, ruining our NRFI, while the Braves cashed the YRFI with 3 runs against the Rockies. I’ve now posted a 21-17 record with my writeups for VSiN so far this season and I’m excited to keep offering my top edges in this market every weekend. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, June 17th.
All odds via DraftKings
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
These teams combined for just 3 runs on 11 hits yesterday and the pitching matchup is juicy again today. Hunter Greene is a NRFI stud with a 12-1 record, .114 batting average against, 1.72 xFIP, and a whopping 51.1% K-rate in the opening frame this season. He draws an Astros lineup that is about average in the 1st inning this season with an overall scoring rate of 37% (26-of-70). However Houston has had a bit of a problem lately without injured slugger Yoradn Alvarez, having failed to score in the 1st inning in 4 of their last 5 games.
Brandon Bielak has been solid for the Astros this season with a 6-1 NRFI record, 2.35 xFIP, and an impressive 40% K-rate in the opening frame. He doesn’t have a fiery fastball like Greene, but has still been very effective. Bielak faces a Reds lineup that has struggled against righties this year. Cincinnati’s wRC+ drops from 2nd to 22nd when facing righties in the opening frame and their wOBA (weighted on base average) drops from 2nd to 18th.
Perhaps my favorite part of this bet is the fact that both pitchers will be getting a fresh look at the opposing starting lineups. Here’s the projected top of the order for both teams:
Hunter Greene vs:
Mauricio Dubon (never faced)
Jose Altuve (never faced)
Alex Bregman (never faced)
Brandon Bielak vs:
TJ Friedl (never faced)
Matt McLain (never faced)
Jonathan India (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-110)
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
On the surface, this game might appear like a situation where early runs could be scored, but the odds are telling me otherwise as this game features the lowest total on the board today. Lucas Giolito and Logan Gilbert have a combined NRFI record of just 12-15 this season, but the data says they’ve both gotten a little unlucky. Gilbert has the biggest gripe with an xFIP of nearly half his actual FIP in the 1st inning (6.89 to 3.85). Today he faces a White Sox team that is 10-2 to the NRFI in June and has scored an early run in just 13.5.% of road games this season (5-for-37).
Giolito has pitched to a miniscule 0.69 ERA in June after meandering through the first 2 months of the season. He draws a Mariners lineup that has scored an early run just 2 times in the last 15 games and has posted a brutal .167 batting average against RHP in the 1st inning this month. I think weather and start time could be a factor here too. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50’s at T-Mobile Park and these teams will have a quick turnaround with an afternoon start time after an evening game last night.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Lucas Giolito vs:
J.P. Crawford (1-for-2)
Julio Rodriguez (never faced)
Ty France (1-for-3)
Logan Gilbert vs:
Tim Anderson (2-for-4)
Andrew Benintendi (3-for-11)
Luis Robert Jr. (0-for-5)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-135)