Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
After a week off, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for this week’s Fight Night production.
Two weeks ago, Mateusz Gamrot +135 defeated elite striker Rafael Fiziev to push profitability this year to 16-15 +.50u for readers.
In 2023, favorites are running 65%, a touch higher than normal in the UFC with just under a quarter remaining in the calendar year.
Grant Dawson -410Â vs. Bobby Green +330
Lightweight (155 pounds) main event
Unranked Bobby ‘King’ Green has fought six times in the octagon since August of 2021, realizing a 3-3 result and having faced elite lightweight talent. Green is a purple belt in BJJ, but really, he’s a fluent street fighter rife with athleticism, evasive defensive habits and fast hands. He’s able to unleash combinations on point and effectively early in fights.
In standing affairs, Green’s ability to stick-n-move, his accuracy and his nimble legwork enable him to outdazzle opponents early. However, in the later stages of competitive top-level fights, Green, who is now 37, can slow down, resulting in his potentially getting caught (see Drew Dober) or simply outwrestled.
Grant Dawson grew up in rural Nebraska as a wrestler. Now a black belt in BJJ, Dawson trains in Florida with the many savages at ATT. He’s durable, tough, employs unrelenting forward pressure and his striking has greatly improved.
Dawson has faced world-class opponents, but in this one, he’ll be getting a slickster, a fleet-footed tip-tapper who is going to try to keep his distance from Dawson and touch, touch, touch him into a decision.
Dawson will be the stoic forward-pressing athlete whose goal will be to suck the energy from Green by backing him up and forcing him to defend takedowns and even better by forcing him to return to his feet from getting taken down.
In this fight, we’ll get the classic striker vs. grappler/wrestler matchup as Dawson does not really wish to get into a striking battle with the defter striker, just as ‘King’ Green does not want to take have his busted up 37-year-old body in bottom position with Dawson raining damage from the top.
Dawson is an ascending talent in the division, and the proof will be in his systematic breakdown of Green.
Release: Dawson -130 to win KO/Submission/DQ
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Under -215
Joe Pyfer -455Â vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan +360
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Pyfer has all the tools to continue his ascent as a mixed martial artist. He’s a muscular, powerful striker possessing great finishing ability while developing his well-roundedness. Pyfer is entering competitive high-level grappling tourneys, which shows that he aspires to complement those heavy hands and grow into a legitimate threat in the division.
In Alhassan, Pyfer will get a Judo-based power striker who will hold advantages in UFC experience as well as the level of competition he has faced. Alhassan arrives off a dominating win, and the 38-year-old Ghanan knows he’s been put in there as a stepping stone for young Pyfer, which I do not believe sits well with Alhassan.
Once the bell rings for this fight, I believe it’s up to Alhassan to go straight at Pyfer and get into a firefight, and it’s my judgment that Pyfer may well accommodate him. It’s in the hysteria of a firefight that I award Alhassan early advantage. His explosiveness, power, and experience together make Alhassan a threat to a worthy young warrior who may earn his Ph.D. in MMA at the hands of Alhassan.
Alhassan is a ‘live’ fighter Saturday night.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Under -215
Alhassan via KO/Submission/DQ +400 offers a slight advantage over his straight-up price and his most likely method of earning victory would be to catch the young stoic Pyfer with a Sunday shot.
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is showing 14% ROI in 2023. It drops with all my final post-weigh-in releases on Friday around Noon PT.
Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading!
