UFC Picks & Predictions Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev

VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess has some strong takes on the UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev card and put pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts on every fight on the docket.

UFC Odds | UFC Betting Splits | Lou Finocchiaro’s article

Main Event

Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik (+150) vs Shamil Gaziev (-180)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-190)

Shamil Gaziev has wasted no time establishing himself as a finisher in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He won his Contender Series bout in under 3 minutes via submission after securing a knockdown with one significant strike. The level of competition rose when he faced Martin Buday 2.5 months ago at UFC 296. He secured a KO finish vs the UFC veteran in the first minute of the second round.

Finishes are the norm for Gaziev, with a 12-0 record he has scored 8 knockouts, 3 submissions, with only one win going the distance. In his two bouts with official UFC stats his significant strike differential is 54 to 8. Power and Aggression are his calling cards, what more could a UFC fan ask of an emerging heavyweight?

Contrasting Shamil Gaziev’s sterling MMA record is Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik who has been more down than up in his recent UFC history. With a commendable 7-5 record in MMA’s biggest promotion Bigi Boy is just 2-4 dating back to February of 2021.

With the trajectories of these fighters so vastly different in the year 2024, it is easy to assume that this is a setup, a stepping stone for Gaziev on his ascension to fighting for the heavyweight belt. Bigi Boy is a big enough name to give Gaziev credibility in the organization. But names are where this handicap really begins. Do not look at Bigi Boy’s record in his last 6 fights, look at the names in the fight ledger; Jailton Almeida (#7 UFC Heavyweight), Chris Daukus (Former #11 UFC heavyweight), Alexander Volkov (#6 UFC Heavyweight), Curtis Blaydes (#5 UFC heavyweight), Augusto Sakai (Former #14 UFC Heavyweight), and Cyril Gane (#2 UFC heavyweight, former Interim Champion). On the contrary Gaziev’s pre-UFC strength of schedule is one of the softest on the entire fight card.

Here are the professional records of Gaziev’s 10 opponents before coming onto the UFC’s radar:

• 17-5
• 4-1
• 13-0-1 (Gaziev’s 1 decision victory)
• 0-0
• 2-0
• 1-0
• 0-0
• 1-4
• 0-0
• 1-1

The 17-5 fighter on Gaziev’s resume is Darko Stosic, a guy who had a brief stint in the UFC, going 1-3 as a light heavyweight. The Only other guy on his resume with the potential to sniff a spot on the UFC roster is Kirill Kornilov who was 13-0-1 when Gaziev won via split decision.

Then in Contender Series Gaziev fought Greg Velasco, a fighter with 6 pro fights on the regional scene and an 8 in reach disadvantage. Gaziev’s UFC debut was against Martin Buday who was 4-0 in the UFC (vs the dregs of the heavyweight division). And furthermore Buday has as little power as you will ever see in the hands of a professional fighter who is 6’4, 265 pounds.

All this is to say Gaziev has been successful with his all out aggressive style because he has not had to fear what is coming back at him. That will not be the case versus Jairzinho Rozenstruik who has 7 KO victories in the world’s greatest MMA promotion.

I cannot buy the hype. I cannot lay the price. Gaziev is a relative novice who wants nothing more than to rush into the danger zone of one of the most devastating KO artists on the planet.

Winner Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Bets: Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO (+165), 1 Unit to win 1.65

Co-Main Event

Vitor “Icão” Petrino (-305) vs Tyson Pedro (+245)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+114)

Vitor Petrino has been a welcome addition to an aging and/or injured light heavyweight division. At only 26 years old Petrino has a Contender Series KO victory, and a 3-0 record in the Octagon. Overall he is 10-0 with 7 KOs, 1 submission, and 2 decision victories. But do not be misled by those stats. He is not a stand up brawler, but is instead an elite grappler who controls fights with takedowns and punishes his opponents when they try to make their way back up to their feet.

Tyson Pedro has had a stop and start UFC career. He fought 6 times from 2016-2018, but then had a 3+ year hiatus due to a torn ACL and another undisclosed injury that further slowed his return. Since returning to the Octagon in 2022 Tyson is 3-1 with all 3 victories coming via 1st round KO.

For the favorite to come through in this fight, Petrino needs to employ a high fight IQ to ensure the scrap takes place in his comfort zone, on the ground. Both light heavyweights are in the same ballpark regarding significant strikes landed per minute and significant strikes absorbed. However Pedro stands out as being a bit more hittable, his significant strike defense rate is only 43%, meaning 57% of his opponent’s significant strikes are landing.

Where these guys really separate is in the grappling department. Petrino averages 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon with a takedown accuracy at a solid 70%. On the other hand, Pedro’s takedown defense is only 52%.

With all that said, the 52% takedown defense is for Tyson Pedro’s career, since returning from his injury hiatus he has not been taken down once. He will also have an inch and a half reach advantage in this match up.

I understand why Petrino is the favorite in this fight. But every round starts on the feet in the center of the Octagon and by my handicap that means each round is going to start with Tyson Pedro at a distinct advantage. At 205 pounds, one punch is enough to end the fight.

Winner Prediction: Tyson Pedro

Bets:

Tyson Pedro (+245), 1 Unit to win 2.45

Tyson Pedro via KO (+600), 0.5 Units to win 3

Under 2.5 Rounds (-175), 1.75 Units to win 1

Main Event Undercard

Alex Perez (+270) vs Mohammed Mokaev (-340)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-115)

Mohammed Mokaev is 5-0 in the UFC and 10-0 overall in MMA. Surprisingly, -340 is the cheapest price he has ever had in the Octagon by a considerable margin (-400, -1000, -1400, -490, -500). What’s behind the “discount?” Alex Perez’s 6+ years on the UFC roster, sharing the Octagon with some of the best in the business. However he has had constant injury problems, only fighting twice since November of 2020. And those fights were versus the absolute tip of the spear in the 125 pound weight class. He lost via submission to both former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo and current flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja.

Mokaev is a grappling specialist, with 6 of his wins coming via submission. The low hanging fruit is the Mokaev via submission prop, but at only +150 I don’t really see the value. Especially when you consider in his career Perez has a 77% takedown defense rate, and is way more active with the hands.

Winner Prediction: Mohammed Mokaev

Bet: Pass

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1200) vs Bekzat Almakhan (+750)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)

Not every Nurmagomedov is Khabib. But Umar does a pretty good job carrying on his cousin’s legacy. Efficient on the feet, a dominant ground game, he definitely fits the bill for fighters coming out of Eagles FC in Dagestan. The only problem with his resume is strength of schedule. In 4 UFC bouts, the lowest price he has been is -540. He has dominated all those fights, but so would have the rest of the top 15 at 135 pounds.

Bekzat Almakhan is a bit of a wildcard. He has experience with a 17-1 record on the regional scene. But he hasn’t faced an opponent who has reached the heights of the UFC, or even PFL or Bellator. With 13 knockout victories he very well could have the best hands of any of Umar’s opponents up until this point. But I think the UFC had a clear outcome in mind when lining up this fight.

Winner Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov

Bet: Pass

Prelims

Matt Schnell (+340) vs Steve Erceg (-440)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+110)

Two fights ago, Steve Erceg was a late replacement fighter on the UFC 289 undercard. He won via decision as a +240 underdog. He followed that up with a straightforward decision win as a -200 favorite and now finds himself ranked as the #12 flyweight in the UFC. Matt Schnell is a bonafide UFC veteran who has faced some of the best fighters in the world. He is not afraid to brawl and his best chance in this fight is to bring the action early and often. Unfortunately I think Erceg will land leg kicks early to slow the aggression, and I think he is too cerebral of a fighter to fall into Schnell’s style of a fight.

Winner Prediction: Steve Erceg

Bets: Erceg via Dec (+200), 0.5 Units to Win 1

Erceg as a parlay leg (more on that later)

Eryk Anders (-470) vs Jamie Pickett (+460)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)

This may be the worst fight to watch on the card. Neither guy pushes the pace. Pickett has a tendency to look flat out disinterested in fighting and Anders has a habit of being hesitant to pull the trigger when opportunities arise. Both fighters are long past their best days in the Octagon, and it could be a situation where the loser is on their way out of the UFC. At the end of the day, Anders has more power, and likely is the one who inflicts the most damage.

Winner Prediction: Eryk Anders

Bets: Pass

Vinicius Oliveira (-120) vs Benardo Sopaj (+100)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-150) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)

Vinicius Oliveira was supposed to be making his UFC debut vs Yanis Ghemmouri, but that bout was scrapped due to injury and he will now face Benardo Sopaj. When analyzing this fight the first thing that sticks out is neither guy likes spending too much time in the cage. Oliveira is 19-3 with 15 KOs and two submissions. Sobaj is 11-2 with 7 KOs and three subs. In 35 combined fights, these bantamweights have seen the scorecards a total of 5 times. Another item of intrigue is the fact that Sopaj’s tapology.com fighter page still has a fight listed for him on March 9th at AFN 5 where he is defending his regional 135 pound title in Sweden. This means Sopaj was already in camp and should be relatively fight ready. This isn’t a couch to Octagon scenario like we have seen in the past. All that said I like fights like this to start a little slower as both guys haven’t had a full camp of tape study. But neither guy really has a penchant for grinding out decisions either.

I think the close line in this fight is appropriate, but I lean towards Oliviera due to his recent experience coming in the UAE Warriors promotion. It’s a bit stronger than the Swedish regional circuit Sopaj has been dominating and we have seen recent UAE Warriors transplants succeed in the UFC.

Winner Prediction: Vinicius Oliviera

Bet: Pass

Javid Basharat (-800) vs Aieman Zahabi (+550)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)

It’s rare to see a fighter who looks as dominant as Javid Basharat has in 3 UFC fights without securing a single finish. He is a control grappler and knows how to stay out of harms way. Position over submission. Aieman Zahabi has been the underdog in his last three fights, but is 3-0 in those bouts. Two of which have come via KO. Brother of Firas Zahabi, the head trainer at the world famous Tristar Gym, Aieman’s fight IQ is never in question. It’s tempting to take a shot on Zahabi here, but at 36 years old it’s hard to get excited about him upsetting a younger, longer, and 14-0 fighter who has shown the ability to stay out of trouble inside the Octagon.

Winner Prediction: Javid Basharat

Bet: Pass

Christian Leroy Duncan (-310) vs Claudio Ribeiro (+250)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-120) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)

Both of these guys want to win the fight with their hands and I expect both guys to land shots. Duncan is an inch taller than Ribeiro with a two inch reach advantage. When CLD is winning fights its because he is controlling the range. Ribeiro is the type of guy who isn’t afraid to fight through the fire to land his own shots. This is great matchmaking and anything short of fireworks will be a disappointment.

Winner Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan

Bet: Parlay – “Fight Does Not Start Round 3” with Steve Erceg (-440) at (-115),

Risk 1.15 to Win 1.

Ludovit Klein (-900) vs AJ Cunningham (+600)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)

Ludovit Klein’s nickname is “Mr. Highlight” but he has not had a highlight finish since his UFC debut in September of 2020. Perhaps the late addition to the card, AJ Cunningham is the right partner to bring out Klein’s best. Cunningham lost via KO in Contender Series in September and rebounded with a KO win on the regional scene. I don’t see much value on the lines in this one with so much unknown about Cunningham.

Winner Prediction: Ludovit Klein

Bet: Pass

Loik Radzhabov (+150) vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-180)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)

Al-Selwady is making his UFC debut after a Contender Series decision win as a +240 underdog. Before that he spent most of his time in the Middle East regional scene. Loik Radzhabov is a veteran of the fight game and was 4-4 in PFL before moving over to the UFC where he sits at 1-1. I have trouble backing UFC newcomers as a favorite when they are facing a veteran who is still dangerous and has fought a vastly superior slate of fighters. Additionally Al-Selwady has been knocked out three times and took 39 significant strikes to the head in his Contender Series bout. He does not fit the profile of “young newcomer with a fresh chin.” Additionally Radzhabov averages 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, volume wrestling is a great way to slow down an emerging prospect.

Winner Prediction: Loik Radzhabov

Bet: Loik Radzhabov (+150), Risk 1 unit to Win 1.5

All Odds via DraftKings

Best Bets Recap:

Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO (+165), 1 Unit to Win 1.65

Tyson Pedro (+245), 1 Unit to Win 2.45

Tyson Pedro via KO (+600), 0.5 Units to Win 3

Petrino/Pedro Under 2.5 Rounds (-175), 1.75 Units to Win 1

Steve Erceg via Dec (+200), 0.5 Units to Win 1

Parlay – “Fight Does Not Start Round 3” In Duncan vs Ribeiro(-190) with Steve Erceg (-440) at (-115), Risk 1.15 to Win 1.

Loik Radzhabov (+150), Risk 1 unit to Win 1.5