Best Bets for UFC Vegas 91
Welcome to my UFC best bets for UFC Vegas 91!
UFC 300 was an epic fight card, and the results furthered the dominance favorites are enjoying in 2024. Chalk realized a 10-2-1 result, pushing favorites to 104-50-4 or 67.5%. Investing in UFC underdogs must be undertaken with an elevated level of due diligence and a good deal of intestinal fortitude.
Digital results this year have been positive despite dropping the parlay of Jailin Turner paired to Rose Namajunas (-1.04u) because I earned most of that back with a single unit victory in Bobby Green’s (-180) domination over Jim Miller.
2024 digital results: 10-6 +7.23u (+132)
The UFC offers thirteen bouts on this week’s LV 91 card, which will be held at its APEX Center. There will be few fans watching combatants fight in the close confines of that venue, which employs the twenty-five-foot cage.
Matheus Nicolau -185 vs. Alex Perez +155
Flyweight (125 pounds) Main Event
We last saw eighth-ranked Perez fight eight weeks ago when he lost a close decision to seventh-ranked Muhammad Mokaev after not competing in the cage for two years.
Perez is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has dealt with inconsistency in the octagon because he’s been unable to compete without enduring long layoffs between bouts.
Perez has a well-founded wrestling base, solid BJJ and being of Mexican descent, it is understood that he is durable and has effective boxing. In this opportunity, he turns around quickly, which I believe to be foundational to the outcome of this main event.
Brazilian Nicolau is the fifth-ranked fighter in the division. He enters this battle after being decimated by Brandon Royval in his last fight. However, prior to that setback, he ran off six straight victories against top-ranked flyweight competition.
A black belt in BJJ, Nicolau is fleet afoot, has superior ground acumen, and is capable on his feet, though he accrues damage via volume as opposed to possessing one-strike KO power.
Nicolau has been the more consistent fighter, fighting three times in the last two years, while Perez has only fought once in that same period.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -145
This should be a competitive striking battle that ends via decision. For that reason, I will invest in the total.
UFC Best Bet: Over 4.5 Rounds +125
Karine Silva -150 vs. Ariane Lipski +125
Woman’s flyweight (125 pounds)
In this battle of Brazil, Silva opened as the ever-so-slight favorite -115 to Lipski’s -105, with the total set at 2.5Rds. Under -115.
Lipski, ranked twelfth, lost to an underwhelming Pricilla Cachioera in 2022 before rolling through three straight foes while improving with each straight victory. Her last win against Casey O’Neill earned her a spot in the rankings and pronounced Lipski as a bone fide contender instead of a gatekeeper for the top twenty of the division.
Lipski has eleven UFC bouts under her belt. With a black belt in Muay Thai and a purple belt in BJJ, she is capable on the floor but quite dangerous on the feet, especially from distance where she can launch damaging leg strikes.
Silva enters this fight as the thirteenth-ranked athlete in the division and one who has ascended the ranks in far more efficient fashion than Lipski.
Silva’s more compact in body style than Lipski, and she carries more aptitude on the mat. Though she’s not highly decorated in any specialty, her ground game and wrestling prowess are advanced. Her aggression, forward pressure and striking power from the pocket are pronounced.
In this bout, we will witness Lipski attempt to maintain striking distance to flush Silva on the face as she enters to engage.
Silva plans to punish Lipski from inside the pocket after pressing her against the fence to eliminate her space and ability to distance herself.
This fight will be an action-packed striking affair only as long as it remains on the feet before Silva gains inside position and then drags the less-versed grappler to the floor.
Should Lipski be able to strike in space she’s liable to accrue damage on Silva over time. However, should Silva be able to make this fight dirty, grimy and waged inside a phone booth, which is surely the plan, her forced determination and heavy top control are liable to overwhelm Lipski, who is well better at dolling out damage from the feet than taking it with her back on the canvas.
Lipski, after opening -105, evolved to -140 until savvy bettors realized a great opportunity and pounced on Silva, making her the current favorite where I believe she will close. I lean to Silva here in another fight that more than likely goes to the judges to be decided.
In each of the two heavyweight battles on this card, both underdogs have taken money.
Austen Lane opened +255 in his fight against Jhonata Diniz and is now priced +200, while Caio Machado opened a +145 underdog to Don’Tale Mayes. Machado has been bet into the favorite and is currently lined -115.
Both bouts should be exciting with huge men in confined space.
Friday mid-day PST, the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with the rest of my UFC best bets. Catch the podcast at WWW.GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the hostilities!
