The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Wednesday, March 13. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 13
2023 Record: 249-248-2 (-6.57 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 13
Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
I have had a lot of success going to Raptors Overs with my NBA best bets lately. Truthfully, it’s one of the only things that has been working. Anyway, I don’t see any reason to turn away from it in tonight’s meeting with the Pistons. Over the last 10 games, Toronto is 26th in the league in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Detroit is 22nd in the league in that span. These are two very bad defensive teams, yet both of them aren’t doing anything to address that. The Raptors are also playing at the league’s fastest pace over the last 10 games, while the Pistons are 13th in the NBA in that span. With that in mind, I think it’s fair to expect an up-and-down game here.
The Over is also 3-1 in the last four games that Toronto has played, and the same happens to go for Detroit. On top of that, these teams flew Over in their two previous meetings. In November, the two combined to score 255 points on a total of 219. In December, they combined to score 256 points on a total of 233. The interesting thing about that is that Toronto hadn’t yet dealt all of its defensive players by then. The team is a lot more offensive-minded right now.
Bet: Over 232.5 (-105 – 2 units)
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
The Kings are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night. However, they now have to play the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Sacramento should be dealing with a little fatigue in a spot that has been killing teams all season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has had two full days to rest since beating the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. On top of that, the Kings are 3-0 against the Lakers this season. Getting a sweep against a LeBron James-led team is going to be difficult.
I just like the way the Lakers are playing right now. They have won and covered in three of their last four, and all of them came against very good basketball teams. Of course, the one loss was to this Kings team, in Los Angeles. And that was a game in which Sacramento’s speed was a huge factor. The Kings looked like they were playing a different sport than the Lakers. But Darvin Ham likely used the last two days to drill home the importance of transition defense. I also think we’ll see an inspired effort on the glass from Anthony Davis here. Davis had 27 points and 25 boards in Sunday’s win over the Timberwolves. He has looked tremendous lately and I’m expecting him to get the better of a tired Domantas Sabonis.
Sacramento has also been a good team to fade after big wins under Mike Brown. The Kings are 12-27 against the spread when playing at home after a game in which they covered under him. And I’m not even taking the chance on the spread here. I’m paying up a little for the moneyline.
Bet: Lakers ML (-130 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 13
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
It’s a little terrifying to see Nikola Jokic’s assist total at 8.5. It feels like the oddsmakers are begging people to take the Over, and I’m sadly taking the bait. I know Jokic only had seven assists against the Heat on February 29, but he has had at least nine assists in nine of his last 17 games. And he had at least 10 dimes in eight of those. I know the Heat are 10th in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they have undoubtedly done a good job of defending Jokic in the past. But it feels like it’d be irresponsible not to take this at plus-money odds. Jokic is one of the smartest players in the league, so he should be able to find a better way to dissect this Miami defense. We’re talking about one of the five best passers in NBA history.
Bet: Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (+105 – 1.5 units) & Jokic Alt Assists 10+ (+170 – 0.5 units)
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
Daniel Gafford generally plays 20 to 25 minutes per night, so his NBA player props can be a little risky. But he has been playing really well for Dallas lately, averaging 16.3 points per game over the last four games. Gafford also hasn’t missed a single shot in this stretch, as he’s a perfect 28 for 28 from the floor. Gafford is just doing a very good job of finishing plays in pick-and-roll actions right now. In fact, he has been so good that he stole rookie Dereck Lively II’s starting spot. With all of that in mind, I just don’t see any reason not to take Gafford to score at least 10 points against the Warriors. The Warriors are a solid defensive team, but they’re very small. That should allow Gafford to find some success around the basket, even in limited minutes.
Bet: Gafford Over 9.5 Points (-135 – 1.5 units)
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