The first season of the Kevin Durant era ended in embarrassment for Houston. The Rockets fell to the short-handed Lakers in the first round of the postseason, and questions erupted about the stability of the team under Ime Udoka’s leadership.
Despite the poor ending, general manager Rafael Stone stayed the course. He added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic in the offseason, with the hopes that those additions — along with a healthy Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams — would be enough to turn the tide. Houston has a fascinating mix of young and old talent on this roster. If it hits, this could be a very dangerous team in the Western Conference.
BURNING QUESTIONS
What does the presence of VanVleet and Adams do for this offense?
Houston’s biggest problem last season was its offense. The Rockets averaged just 96.8 points per 100 halfcourt possessions. It was heavily reliant on forcing turnovers and converting those into transition opportunities, as well as offensive rebounding and second-chance points. In fact, the Rockets averaged the sixth-most points per 100 plays in transition off steals (142.3) and led the league in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts (29.1). Those can still be strengths of this team, but having a true point guard like VanVleet will work wonders for this offense. Houston had to trust Durant to run its offense at times in clutch games, specifically in the postseason, and that failed spectacularly. With VanVleet, this team has a ball-handler who can take those responsibilities from Durant while providing facilitation and shooting. The addition of Smart gives them another defensive-oriented ball-handler as well. Meanwhile, Adams is an elite offensive rebounder who has finished in the 99th percentile or higher in offensive rebounding rate in each of the last four seasons. He can only improve what is already a strength of this team.
Are the children Houston’s future?
In the first week of September, the Rockets inked Amen Thompson to a five-year, $208 million extension. On the surface, the deal makes total sense. Thompson led the NBA in minutes played, and he averaged career highs in points (18.3), assists (5.3), and steals (1.5). Now that he has made his money, can he take another step forward in his development? Thompson saw his efficiency dip despite the jump in scoring, as he posted a career-low 54.9% effective field goal percentage. He is also a sub-30% three-point shooter. Can he make any strides in that category? That is not needed for the other youngster: Reed Sheppard. Sheppard averaged 13.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 82 games last season. His shooting stroke was apparent — he shot 39.4% from deep — but he often found himself drawing the ire of Udoka due to his limitations on defense. When he was on the floor, the Rockets allowed 1.7 more points per 100 possessions. Still, his ability to shoot and his role off the bench are vital for Houston, and he is a true candidate to win Sixth Man of the Year.
Will Houston survive another season with Udoka and Durant?
It’s a question that cannot be answered with data, but it is one that should be asked. Udoka is an ornery head coach who often likes to take a hard-nosed approach with his players. Players like Sheppard often found their roles changed and minutes restricted at the drop of a hat if Udoka felt they were not performing to task. Despite this, Udoka did often find himself out-coached, with no better example of that than the playoff loss to JJ Redick and the Lakers last season. Then, there is Durant. The Slim Reaper is a mercurial dude whose demeanor has tanked better teams than this. In fact, reports from last season surfaced that a Twitter account linked to Durant that often criticized his teammates was an actual distraction in the locker room. There is no question the All-Star forward, who averaged 26 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 52.0% shooting, is an incredible talent. But he and Udoka are an odd mix that could derail the season with their personalities alone.
WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: Over 46.5
