The Pacers were brought up among last year’s tankers, including in my Draft Lottery Reform feature earlier in this guide, but their season was always going to be ugly. Tyrese Haliburton missed the entire year after tearing his Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, and I’m not sure there’s a superstar in the league as important to a team’s style of play.
Now Indiana is in good shape again. At Pacers Media Day, Haliburton said he’s “100%” with “no restrictions.” Rick Carlisle did say they’ll be somewhat cautious with the guard, but he also noted he’s not expecting Haliburton to be limited physically.
With Haliburton back, Indiana pretty much has the entire gang together again. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Pascal Siakam, as well as several key reserves from two years ago, will run with Haliburton. However, Indiana now has a borderline elite center in Ivica Zubac manning the paint. That will give the Pacers a different look than we saw throughout that magical postseason, but it should be beneficial. The slower tempo required to get Zubac situated around the rim should also help as Haliburton gets comfortable on the court.
Indiana also picked up Kelly Oubre Jr. on a two-year, $16.5 million deal. Oubre brings length, athleticism, and controlled chaos, which should help the Pacers absorb the loss of Bennedict Mathurin. Indiana moved Mathurin to Los Angeles in the deal that brought in Zubac, though the guard is now with New Orleans.
This should be a fascinating team to monitor this season. Two years ago, they were playing better basketball than anyone in the playoffs. Can they find that connectivity again?
I tend to think Indiana will find its groove. This team has the talent required to do special things in June, and the Pacers have the depth required to win games at a high clip during the regular season. So, their regular-season Over of 43.5 looks crazy low, and there’s some value here with Indiana to win the division, conference, and title.
BURNING QUESTIONS
Will Haliburton hit the ground running?
We have seen players return from torn ACLs with zero problems, but Achilles injuries are more serious. Still, recent history suggests Haliburton should be alright. Guys like Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum, and Dejounte Murray all looked great upon returning. The ones who take a little extra time to return to game action look even better. Durant is the example of that, and Haliburton had a longer recovery timeline than most. On Pacers Opening Night, it will have been 486 days since Haliburton last played a game.
Everything we’ve seen also suggests he’s in great shape. We’ve seen videos of him throwing down some impressive dunks in empty gyms, and the footage from training camp was extremely promising.
I’d expect Haliburton’s turnovers to be up a little early in the season, as it could be tough for him to adjust to the speed of the game. He could also be a little fatigued late in games. However, a couple of weeks in, I imagine Haliburton will look like his usual self. Let’s just hope he doesn’t deal with pain in other parts of his body due to overcompensation. That bothered Tatum last year.
What will Zubac look like with the full core of the 2024-25 team?
Myles Turner’s ability to knock down jumpers was huge for Indiana’s spacing. However, Turner was rapidly declining as a rim protector. After finishing with a Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +2.0 in 2023-24, Turner’s number dropped to +0.5 in 2024-25. Teams also went at him relentlessly throughout the Pacers’ postseason run, which is why the front office was alright with him signing with the Bucks.
Indiana did know, however, that an upgrade at center was necessary, which is why the team gave up a ton of assets for Zubac. The Croatian doesn’t offer any floor-spacing ability, so Haliburton will have to adjust to that. But he’s a true defensive anchor, capable of masking some holes in the Pacers’ rotation. He’s also a very good play-finisher, an elite offensive rebounder, and a better playmaker than people think.
Zubac is going to make this a much tougher basketball team, and the force he plays with will be big in the playoffs. Zubac would be a problem for the Knicks in a potential playoff series. That has to excite Indiana, which is surely hoping for another dance with its Eastern Conference rival.
Why isn’t this team getting love as a true contender?
Unless you’re extremely skeptical of Haliburton’s health, how can you not like what you see here? This group is a little older than it was two years ago, but none of the pieces are significantly worse. The Pacers have good individual scorers, reliable catch-and-shoot options, and hard-nosed players in the rotation. Carlisle also happens to be one of the best coaches in basketball.
Winning 44 regular-season games shouldn’t be an issue for this squad. And if Haliburton, Siakam, and Zubac are healthy in the postseason, Indiana will rightfully feel good about beating anyone.
WIN TOTAL BEST BET: Over 43.5
