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Record: 79-59-1 | Units: +15.5 | ROI: 10.3%
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Miami Heat (-8, 233) at Washington Wizards
Much was made of Miami’s offensive struggles over the course of its 0-7 SU and ATS slide, but it might not have been as bad as it looked on the surface. Yes, the Heat averaged only 107.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over that span. However, it was actually a brutal stretch of competent defensive opponents.
Over the course of those seven games Miami faced five opponents which rank 15th or higher in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. Four of them – Memphis, New York, Orlando and Boston – all rank 11th or higher. It is no coincidence that the offense woke up and put up 1.211 points per possession in a win over Sacramento on Wednesday night.
This team is capable of taking advantage of lesser defensive teams, and they get one tonight in Washington.
The Wizards have allowed the second-most points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season (122.1). They do not have the on-ball defenders capable of stopping Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier. This should be another night for the Heat offense to find some efficiency.
On the other end, Miami is one of the best teams in the league at limiting shot attempts at the rim. It ranks third in opponent frequency of attempts at the rim (29.4%). Washington takes 34.0% of its attempts within four feet and creates most of its offense in the restricted area. Against a sound defensive team like the Heat offense should be hard to come by.
It’s a big number on the road, but I’m willing to lay it. Miami is clearly taking this losing streak seriously, as we would expect from this franchise. This is a good opportunity to get right before hosting the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday.
Play: Heat (-8) – Playable to (-8.5)
Phoenix Suns (-2, 247) at Atlanta Hawks
Phoenix won and covered its second consecutive game on Wednesday when it defeated Brooklyn 136-120 but their success has been sustained for some time now. Since Dec. 27 the Suns are 14-5 SU/10-9 ATS with the fourth-best net rating in non-garbage time (+9.5). They are playing like the elite team many of us expected them to be, but the market is not adjusting its rating of this team enough.
The team also seems to be well aware of its weaknesses, and is making adjustments to address that.
Frank Vogel adjusted his second half rotation to account for the team’s fourth quarter issues. Devin Booker used to play the entire third quarter and get his last stint on the bench to start the fourth. Against Miami, Booker rested to end the third and began the final quarter on the floor with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. That adjustment going forward should help a team which is 30th in fourth quarter net rating (-16.5).
This team is also just better on both ends of the floor than Atlanta.
The Hawks seem to be getting De’Andre Hunter back from injury tonight, but that won’t do much to help a defense which is 26th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (120.5). They have won their last two contests, but both opponents – the Raptors and Lakers – were teams beleaguered with injuries.
Atlanta is only 10-13 SU/5-18 ATS at home this season. To ask a healthy Phoenix team to come into this game and win by a possession against the worst cover team in the league and its shoddy defense is a simple task.
Play: Suns (-3.5) – Playable to (-4)
Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 223.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
This is an extremely poor spot for Memphis. Not only do the Grizzlies come into this game on no rest, but it is also the fourth game in six nights for them. They have done well against the number recently – 5-1 ATS in their last six games – but this is one where they might be up against it.
Not only does Golden State have the rest advantage after a travel day, but it also has revenge on the mind. Draymond Green made his return from suspension here on Jan. 15 in a game that the Warriors lost. Memphis went 20-of-54 from deep, shot 30 more free throws and forced 19 turnovers in the win. A few of those statistics are unlikely to repeat themselves, and their opponent is playing much better basketball.
Golden State is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in the four games since that loss, and the impact of Green on this team’s offense is being felt. The Warriors have averaged 126.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over that span. Green himself is a +82 in those four games! Not only does his presence help run the offense, but he also gives the Warriors a plus defender to hound the opposition’s best offensive option.
Even though the Grizzlies do not have the players on the floor that made these contests great, this is still always a big game for both teams. The Warriors had four games at home over the course of 16 days recently. They have had time to practice and integrate Green back into the lineup and the returns have been excellent. I expect this offense to continue to churn out the high-level production we have seen recently.
Play: Warriors TT OV 116.5 (-115) – Playable to (-125)
NBA Best Bets
Heat (-8)
Suns (-3.5)
Warriors TT OV 116.5 (-115)
