NBA Best Bets for Monday, April 1st
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 110-104-3 | Units: -1.85 | ROI: -0.8%
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Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic (-14.5, 207.5)
This is the fourth game of a seven-game road trip for Portland, and so far it has been ugly. The Trail Blazers are 0-3 SU and ATS on this trip. They have closed catching an average of 12.7 points in those contests and have failed to cover by 17.2 points per game. Three rookies – Scoot Henderson, Rayan Rupert and Kris Murray – are starting for Portland. The trio has a -11.1 net rating when on the floor together. They average just 110.0 points per 100 possessions. This team is outmatched and playing out the string at this point.
Orlando is perfectly capable of dominating this team. This is the last game of an eight-game homestand for the Magic. It might be their third game in four nights, but the situation is offset by this long stretch at home. Orlando’s dominant defense can stymie an offense that lacks perimeter talent. It just suffocated Memphis for a 118-88 win in which the Grizzlies were held to 0.73 points per possession.
The Magic have plenty to play for as well. They trail the Knicks – their most probable first round opponent – by only a game for homecourt in the first round. This is not a situation in which Orlando will overlook its opponent. It is playing playoff basketball right now, and the team is perfectly capable of covering this number.
Best Bet: Magic (-16) – Playable at (-16) or better
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans (-1, 224.5)
Some would probably look at this line and call it “fishy” but I will just call it incorrect. The market has overvalued Phoenix all season long, and here we have another instance of it. Even without Brandon Ingram, what about these two teams’ current form would tell us that New Orleans deserves to be an underdog – even of just a point – on its home floor to this team?
The Suns fell to 30-41-3 ATS on the season after a loss in Oklahoma City on Friday night. There is usually no shame in a loss like that. But, considering the Thunder did not have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and won by 25 points I will say there is some shame. The betting market has made Phoenix a road favorite 24 times this season. It is 9-13-2 ATS in those games with 10 outright losses.
New Orleans is wrapping up a four-game homestand tonight. Phoenix is ending a five-game road trip. The Suns might have a rest advantage, but the Pelicans have been playing at home. Once again, this is just a play on principle. Even without Ingram, New Orleans does not deserve to be a home underdog to one of the most overrated teams in the league.
Best Bet: Pelicans ML (-105) – Playable to (-120)
NBA Best Bets
Magic (-16)
Pelicans ML (-105)
Remaining Games
*Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers (-10, 229.5)
Indiana has been inconsistent at the window lately, so it is hard to get there with this number. In March, the Pacers are 8-7 SU and ATS with a +3.8 net rating. Perhaps playing after two days of rest against Brooklyn which is on a back-to-back is beneficial enough for Indiana to cover here. The market seems to believe this, as the number is up to -12 consensus as of this morning. This does fall into the category of an eliminated team facing a team with everything to play for, and that has been a profitable angle during the homestretch of the season.
Boston Celtics (-18, 218.5) at *Charlotte Hornets
Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable to play tonight, but Boston is so deep their absences won’t alter the spread much. Charlotte is playing on no rest after an early game on Sunday. It lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in a slow, but efficient affair. The Hornets allowed Paul George to score 41 points on 14-of-21 shooting, and the Clippers put up 1.413 points per possession in a 12-point win. The Celtics are perfectly capable of covering this number, but the backdoor is always open with such a massive number, especially on the road.
Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons (-2, 213.5)
Do you really want action on this game? Cade Cunningham and Marcus Sasser are questionable for Detroit. Simone Fontecchio remains out with a toe injury. On the other side, Desmond Bane will not play. The Grizzlies are 0-3 ATS in their last three games with a -12.3 spread differential. The Pistons have covered three of four games, but with the status of Cunningham up in the air they are untouchable. Neither side or total have moved much here, and that is likely going to be the case the rest of the day, outside of movement related to Cunningham’s status.
Atlanta Hawks at *Chicago Bulls (-2.5, 224)
The total has dropped significantly from the overnight open, and that is likely due to a potential playoff-type atmosphere tonight in Chicago. These two teams are destined to meet one another in the Eastern Conference play-in, but homecourt has yet to be decided. The Hawks are 0-2 against the Bulls this season, so a win is absolutely necessary to at least tie them in the loss column. Chicago can effectively clinch homecourt in the second play-in with a win. Thus, we could get a slow, halfcourt oriented game with so much on the line.
