NBA Best Bets for Thursday, March 21st
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 104-93-3 | Units: +4.45 | ROI: 2.1%
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New Orleans Pelicans (-1, 207.5) at Orlando Magic
This should be a great game, buried in the mania surrounding the NCAA Tournament. New Orleans is 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games. Orlando is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 games. Both teams have been playing incredible basketball, and the victor can use this contest as evidence of their legitimacy as a contender in their respective conference.
If there was a team that needed to answer the questions more though, it would be the Magic.
Orlando has been dominant for longer than just that 11-game stretch. It is the best cover team in the NBA (44-23-2 ATS, 65.7%) by a wide margin. The Magic are 14-3 SU/13-4 ATS in their last 17 games. However, the schedule recently has been anything but daunting. Ten of their last 15 opponents rank 20th or lower in non-garbage time net rating. This will be a different level of opposition.
New Orleans has the defense to corral the subpar offense Orlando runs. Despite the nice run they are on, the Magic still average only 114.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The Pelicans allow 112.9 points per 100 possessions, and they have an elite wing defender in Herb Jones to hound Paolo Banchero.
They are also a much better shooting team that hits 38.0% of its 32.4 3-point attempts per game. The Magic take a low rate of 3-point attempts, and hit just 35.8% of those shots from deep.
The betting market has already jumped on New Orleans here, and I obviously agree. I missed out on the best of the number, but 2.5 is still perfectly playable by my measure.
Best Bet: Pelicans (-2.5) – Playable to (-3)
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets (-2.5, 213)
Houston is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. This run has done little to carve into the deficit it faces in the chase for the 10th seed in the Western Conference, but the team is clearly trying to make a push. Understandably, the market has been improving its rating of the Rockets over the last two weeks. However, we’re at the point where I feel like pushing back.
This number is up to -4 at multiple shops this morning. It is a number that would indicate Houston is the better team on a neutral court than Chicago. The Bulls do have both Alex Caruso and Coby White listed as questionable on the injury report. If both were to miss this game then this movement would make sense. But, multiple reports have indicated that both should play tonight. If that is the case, then these two teams are equal to one another.
The Rockets have also had a light schedule since losing Alperen Sengun. They are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS without him, but against the Spurs, Wizards (twice) and Cavaliers. The Bulls are no title contender, but they are a competent team with good individual talent coming in with a rest advantage.
Best Bet: Bulls (+4) – Playable to (+2.5)
NBA Best Bets
Pelicans (-2.5)
Bulls (+4)
Remaining Games
*Sacramento Kings (-11, 237) at Washington Wizards
This is the third game in four nights for Sacramento, and it is being played with no rest. However, we’re starting to see these lopsided results between playoff teams and non-playoff teams grow in frequency. It wouldn’t be a shock to see another one here. Washington is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games. It is 2-7 ATS in its last nine. Tyus Jones remains out, and both Deni Avdija and Richaun Holmes are questionable. The Rockets averaged 1.4 points per possession in a blowout win on Tuesday. What can the Kings do with their offensive upside?
Brooklyn Nets at *Milwaukee Bucks (-9, 222)
Milwaukee improved to 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in games without Giannis Antetokunmpo this season after covering in Boston last night. Antetokounmpo’s status is in question once again today, so until it is known what the team will do it is foolish to attack the side or total. The Bucks are perfectly capable of covering a number against the Nets which are 6-14 SU/7-13 ATS in their last 20 games. However, getting the best number is still paramount, and getting that is dependent on knowing Antetokunmpo’s status.
*Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks (-13.5, 238.5)
Utah stayed inside a massive number last night in Oklahoma City, and it gets another massive spread tonight in Dallas. The Jazz are 3-14 SU since the trade deadline, but they are now 6-11 ATS after their cover last night. The power rating has truly bottomed out on Utah, and by extension there is little value in fading this team. It will likely have Lauri Markkanen back on the floor after he rested last night, and Jordan Clarkson’s status is still a mystery. Still, the Mavericks are hot – 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games – and the market has pushed this number up to 14.5 consensus.
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets (-9, 213.5)
New York is starting to get hot again. The Knicks are 6-2 SU/5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games. On this road trip they are 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS and coming off an outright win over the Warriors as 6.5-point underdogs. New York will be at a size disadvantage tonight against Denver, but it is hard to go against the Knickerbockers at this point. They have played a vast majority of their games without OG Anunoby who is out once more. This is also a game in which the total has plummeted six points to 207.5 consensus. That is not a total that correlates to laying 9.5 points with the home team.
