NBA: Best bets and analysis for Tuesday, January 23rd

Jonathan Von Tobel (73-48-1 | Units: +21.3u) gives his daily NBA best bets and analysis for Tuesday, January 23rd.

Jan 19, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) shoots a free-throw against the Boston Celtics in the second quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

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NBA Best Bets

Record: 73-48-1 | Units: +21.3u | ROI: 16.2%

Denver Nuggets (-3.5, 241.5) at Indiana Pacers

Indiana has played just two games with Pascal Siakam, and Tyrese Haliburton played in just one of those contests. The statistical returns have been very good. The Pacers have a +11.2 net rating with Siakam on the floor. When he and Haliburton played together they averaged 1.509 points per possession. However, the sample size is miniscule, and the game in which both played ended up as a loss to Portland.

The thing we do know is that the Pacers will still struggle to defend along the perimeter. Siakam can take on some of the tougher forwards Indiana will face, but Haliburton and the rest of this backcourt will still put forth below average defense along the perimeter.

Indiana also has no real answer for Nikola Jokic, and that is why the Nuggets will be play here tonight.

Denver’s starting lineup averages 127.4 points per 100 possessions and owns a +14.2 net rating this season. The Pacers have no defensive option for Jamal Murray. They also lack size along the wing, so the duo of Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. will prove troublesome to defend.

This is a mismatch anyway you cut it for Indiana. It ranks 27th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (120.9) and it faces an offense which is seventh in offensive efficiency (119.6). The Pacers are 23rd in rebounding rate (48.8%) and the Nuggets are fifth (51.4%). 

There are few categories in which Indiana has an edge tonight. So, the play will be the road favorite. Denver has been sporadic in terms of covering numbers – 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games – but the matchup works too well in their favor tonight to pass up.

Play: Nuggets (-4.5) – Playable to (-5)

NBA Best Bets

Nuggets (-4.5)