NBA: Best bets and analysis for Wednesday, February 14th

Jonathan Von Tobel (84-66-2 | Units: +13.4) gives his daily NBA best bets and analysis for Wednesday, February 14th.

Feb 10, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) during the first quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

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NBA Best Bets

Record: 84-66-2 | Units: +13.4 | ROI: 8.2%

Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, 238.5) at Charlotte Hornets

Call me crazy, but I don’t hate what this Charlotte Hornets roster looks like now that we are past the trade deadline. They have two decent wings who can score in Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller. Miller is clearly improving, and has averaged 21.3 points and 4.7 rebounds on 49.0% shooting from the floor. Bridges is a high-volume scorer, but in matchups against lesser defensive opponents he can thrive. The added depth of both Grant Williams and Seth Curry to this team really help give the team a steady veteran presence it has lacked on the court.

Atlanta is also just a poor defensive team. The Hawks are allowing 120.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season. They give up a decent rate of 3-point attempts, and with the additions of both Williams and Curry we’ve seen the Hornets take more 3-point shots in two games. Charlotte has not been particularly quick, but they will be more than willing to match pace with Atlanta as well.

This is a number grab by my measure. This is a number that I made about 5.5 as opposed to the -7 that is hanging around the market. It would seem this has the makings of a good ole fashioned up and down affair between two bad defenses tonight. Give me the underdog in that affair.

Play: Hornets (+7) – Playable to (+6)

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, 231.5)

Kawhi Leonard will not play in the Clippers’ finale before the All-Star break, but Los Angeles is not helpless without its MVP candidate. The most likely starting lineup without Leonard – James Harden, Terance Mann, Amir Coffey, Paul George and Ivica Zubac – is +3.5 per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass. In the possessions without Leonard overall, the Clippers average 121.3 points per 100 possessions. They are still a perfectly capable team, and they are much better suited to handle the smaller Golden State Warriors.

Golden State does come in on a roll. It is 8-4 SU/9-3 ATS since Draymond Green returned from suspension. Over the span of those 12 games the Warriors have outscored their opponents by 7.5 points every 100 possessions. They have the sixth-best offensive rating in that time frame as well (120.2). However, they have faced just four opponents that currently rank inside 15th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. One of those foes – which they faced twice – was Philadelphia who did not have Joel Embiid in one meeting. This will be a different challenge tonight.

Leonard is an MVP calibur player who is vital to Los Angeles’ hopes for a title. However, we’ve seen the market swing six full points since he was ruled out yesterday. The Clippers are deeper than that, and are perfectly capable of overcoming his absence on the road. This number would suggest that the two versions of these teams taking the court tonight are equals. I do not believe that to be the case.

Play: Clippers (+3) – Playable to (+2)

NBA Best Bets

Hornets (+7)

Clippers (+3)